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top stock pick, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CROX; HWCC
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/11/2007
ACN (Accenture--$38.17; +0.07; optionable): Management consulting, systems integration, outsourcing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acn.html
EARNINGS: Late May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Fading back the past week after a strong price and volume move to end March that formed the second leg of its 9 week base. Excellent action as ACN takes its time and sets up for a breakout and run higher to a new all-time high. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday as ACN tested the 18 day EMA (37.70) on the low and rebounded to close positive. Good final shakeout and looking for a strong breakout move.
Volume: 4.222M Avg Volume: 2.856M
BUY POINT: $39.12 Volume=4.3M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.57
POSITION: ACN HH - Aug. $40c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acn.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
BTU (Peabody Energy--$45.17; -0.44; optionable): Worldwide coal exploration, mining and production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
EARNINGS: 4-19-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BTU has formed this 17 week pattern at the bottom of a 12 month cup pattern. Strong break higher last week an on into Monday, clearing the 200 day SMA (43.00) on strong volume as it moved over the late February 'hump' in the pattern. The past two days volume has dropped below average as BTU tests modestly, refusing to give up much ground. May take another session or two to complete forming up, but looks ready to go once it does.
Volume: 4.555M Avg Volume: 5.16M
BUY POINT: $46.32 Volume=7M Target=$53.32 Stop=$44.78
POSITION: BTU II - Sept. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/btu.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$39.99; +0.83; optionable): Chinese online gamers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
Earnings: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Exploded higher Monday on huge volume on the rumor EA was buying 19% of NCTY. EA responded no agreement was entered, but NCTY is holding the gains, working laterally the past two sessions on lighter trade, testing the break higher. The move took it out of a 10 week cup with handle base and to a new high. Waiting for the test to complete and then pick it up on the rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 257.687K Avg Volume: 430.252K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=500K Target=$47.95 Stop=$37.71
POSITION: NQT IH - Sept. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncty.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$19.18; -0.51; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Blasted higher in late March, moving out of a 19 week base on huge trade. It reached 20 on the move, close to an all-time closing high. Working laterally the past two weeks, waiting for the 10 day EMA (18.88) to catch up with it. It is just about there and when they meet we are looking for the move higher to resume. That is when we move in.
Volume: 839.669K Avg Volume: 1.039M
BUY POINT: $19.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$23.95 Stop=$18.74
POSITION: QPM GW - July $17.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/11/2007
CBRL (CBRL Group--$45.21; -0.73; optionable): Family restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbrl.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Put. Strong volume Wednesday as CBRL broke below the 90 day MA (46.22) that acted as support the past week, trying to prop up CBRL after its gap lower the last week of March. Money flow is at the bottom of the barrel (the cracker barrel) and price is stating to follow it down. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.499M Avg Volume: 768.492K
BUY POINT: $45.04 Volume=770K Target=$43.50 Stop=$45.65
POSITION: CBQ QI - May $45p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbrl.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
RECN (RSCS Connection--$30.96; -0.37; optionable): Finance, accounting, risk management, etc. services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-28-07
STATUS: Double top. Volume was up Wednesday as RECN started lower from the 90 day MA (31.47), failing a test of that level Tuesday after breaking below that support Monday. Weak money flow is heading lower, leading RECN lower from its double top in February and March. RECN gapped higher in late December and RECN looks ready to fill that gap. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 676.383K Avg Volume: 384.887K
BUY POINT: $30.84 Volume=650K Target=$29.60 Stop=$31.21
POSITION: JJJ QF - May $30p (-37 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/recn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 04/05/2007
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$32.60; +0.64; optionable): Cabin interiors for commercial and business jets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Great volume Wednesday as BEAV started higher, ready to resume the breakout move. It faded back from the high but looks very good. To recap: BEAV is testing the 18 day EMA following the January breakout from a 9 month double bottom with handle base. It moved higher, then tested the 50 day EMA in all of the market selling. It held there and formed a double bottom, breaking sharply higher mid-March. It has since tested back to the 18 day EMA in a narrow range and on lower volume. It ended the week showing a pair of tight dojis above the 18 day EMA on the candlestick chart after a low volume shakeout a week back. It now looks ripe to make the break higher this week.
Volume: 1.214M Avg Volume: 1.048M
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.89
POSITION: BQV GF - July $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 04/10/2007
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$42.38; -0.60; optionable): Chinese education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Mid-April
STATUS: Ascending base. Faded back on low volume Wednesday, holding the 10 day EMA on the close. Ready to make a higher low in the base, and that typically happens just before the breakout. To recap: Looking at EDU again as it continues setting up its 8 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (40.34) as support. A new issue in September 2006, looking for some volume to come in as it breaks above the trendline connecting the February and late March highs. Love these new issues as they break higher out of bases.
Volume: 59.9K Avg Volume: 406.806K
BUY POINT: $43.44 Volume=600K Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.77
POSITION: EDU GH - July $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/edu.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
MON (Monsanto--$57.18; -0.36; optionable): Hybrids, agricultural chemicals, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-4-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher on a strong earnings report, and has faded back, testing the 10 day EMA (56.59) on the intraday low and rebounding to close. Volume was up as it made the test and recovery. Nice test and looking to move in as it continues higher on strong volume.
Volume: 4.007M Avg Volume: 3.148M
BUY POINT: New: $57.65 (orig. $55.78) Volume=4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.08
POSITION: MON GK - July $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mon.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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top stock pick
stock recommendation
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