|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BEAV; CXW; FLIR; GLDN; ISE; KNOL; PAAS; SPWR
New Plays: New Plays: Still many strong upside plays as the market pushes toward the prior highs. We are looking at strong stocks in sectors that will hold up the best even if the market stumbles at those highs: Gold, medical, materials, exchanges, industrial
Upside:
Play Date: 04/14/2007
AUY (Yamana Gold--$15.06; +0.34; optionable): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/auy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-20-07
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Strong volume Friday as AUY approaches the top of its 7 week base formed making higher lows above the 50 day EMA (14.08). This is the third base since the rally got underway in earnest in late 2005 as AUY came off of the bottom of its long base. Good pause to catch its breath after November to February run, and it is now regrouped and ready to move higher with the continuing push in gold prices as inflation shows more signs of setting in.
Volume: 6.797M Avg Volume: 7.01M
BUY POINT: $15.32 Volume=10M Target=$18.55 Stop=$13.38
POSITION: AUY GC - July $15c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/auy.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
CX (Cemex SA--$34.79; -0.21; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a very nice run from January to February. It needed a break and formed the current 7 week base to do just that. It rallied sharply to start last week, clearing the 'hump' in the double bottom. It faded back to form the handle, holding above the 50 day SMA (34.50) on lower volume. May take a couple more sessions to form up but solid action setting up another breakout and run higher.
Volume: 2.17M Avg Volume: 3.332M
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=5M Target=$40.99 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: CX GG - July $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cx.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
DRIV (Digital River--$56.27; +0.60; optionable): e-commerce solutions for software, high-tech, retailers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumped Friday as an upgrade helped push DRIV up through its early March high. It has now made a higher low in its 20 week base, setting up a break higher. We have been watching DRIV all through this base. It was a big winner for us in 2006 and we have been waiting for it to provide us another opportunity to make us some money. Looking for some more strong volume to take it higher in its base, following the strong money flow.
Volume: 1.313M Avg Volume: 1.28M
BUY POINT: $56.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.68
POSITION: DQI IK - Sept. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$41.18; +0.60; no options): Repair and maintenance services and products for industrial customers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-15-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DXPE is working in a three week handle to a 12 month base, holding at the 18 day EMA on the past two tests, making a higher low as it sets up for a run at a breakout. May take a few more sessions to get the handle finished, but it is capable of running fast and hard when it takes off. It was showing some good volume to end last week as it jumped off the 18 day EMA, so we want to be ready.
Volume: 138.511K Avg Volume: 139.097K
BUY POINT: $42.38 Volume=210K Target=$54.95 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxpe.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$129.79; +3.13; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup. Taking another look at ICE as it improved nicely to end last week, moving up to the 50 day EMA (130.07) on the Friday close as volume, while below average, jumped back up. If it can give us some strong volume as it moves through the 50 day we will look at opening some positions on the move. We will let it make that run, test it, and then as it turns up again we can add positions.
Volume: 3.137M Avg Volume: 4.98M
BUY POINT: $131.95 Volume=5M Target=$150.95 Stop=$127.55
POSITION: ICE FV - June $130c (55 delta) or ICE IW - Sept. $135c (44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
PKI (Perkinelmer--$25.14; +0.48; optionable): Scientific instruments, services for life and analytical sciences.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Excellent volume the past week as PKI prepared for the breakout from a nicely formed 8 week base that used the key 50 day EMA as support. This shorter base formed after the late January breakout from a larger 13 month reverse head and shoulders base. A good breather to set the stage for the next run higher. Money flow is strong, helping push PKI higher. Ready to move in as it continues higher and then again on a successful test.
Volume: 1.634M Avg Volume: 700K
BUY POINT: $25.35 Volume=1M Target=$30.45 Stop=$24.18
POSITION: PKI IE - Sept. $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pki.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/09/2007
AMX (America Movil--$50.90; +0.53; optionable): Telecom wireless communications, Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Moved higher Friday to the buy point but volume was not there yet in its lateral move following the breakout. Looking for more trade this week to give us the buy point. To recap: AMX started the month with a strong surge out of a 7 week base, rallying on strong volume to a new all-time high. After that move it needed a breather and took one last week on lower trade. Last Monday it started higher on rising but below average volume, starting the rebound from the test and heading back for a new high.
Volume: 2.987M Avg Volume: 5.778M
BUY POINT: New: from here on rising volume (orig. $50.72) Volume=6M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: AMX HJ - Aug. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$39.72; -0.28; optionable): Chinese online gamers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
Earnings: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Very low volume as NCTY continues its 4-day lateral move following the strong breakout. Great breakout, nice lateral move, and just waiting for a new break higher to move in. Very nice. To recap: Exploded higher last Monday on huge volume on the rumor EA was buying 19% of NCTY. EA responded no agreement was entered, but NCTY is holding the gains, working laterally the past two sessions on lighter trade, testing the break higher. The move took it out of a 10 week cup with handle base and to a new high. Waiting for the test to complete and then pick it up on the rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 134.869K Avg Volume: 422.155K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=500K Target=$47.95 Stop=$37.71
POSITION: NQT IH - Sept. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncty.html
Play Date: 04/09/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$30.24; +0.25; optionable): Network products for home and small business users
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume moved above average Friday for the first time since the start of the month as NTGR moved past the highs from last week. We wanted more volume, but if NTGR can continue higher on the same kind of volume. To recap: NTGR gapped higher last Monday, as it continued its move over the February 'hump' in the 11 week pattern formed at the 90 day MA (27.37). Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying to send it higher toward a new all-time high. Nice pattern and looks ready to make that new high move.
Volume: 741.229K Avg Volume: 723.814K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move from here (orig. $29.78) Volume=1M Target=$35.78 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: TUD IF - Sept. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$19.14; -0.12; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice low volume doji over the 10 day EMA on Friday, the second straight as SMSI continues working laterally, testing that late March jump. Looks to be just about there. To recap: Blasted higher in late March, moving out of a 19 week base on huge trade. It reached 20 on the move, close to an all-time closing high. Working laterally the past three weeks, and now the 10 day EMA has caught up with it. It is just about there and looking for the move higher to resume. That is when we move in.
Volume: 366.401K Avg Volume: 1.039M
BUY POINT: $19.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$23.95 Stop=$18.74
POSITION: QPM GW - July $17.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/11/2007
CBRL (CBRL Group--$45.85; +0.48; optionable): Family restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbrl.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Put. After dumping hard on Wednesday, CBRL recovered to end the week, moving back up toward the 90 day MA (46.28) it breached on high volume. Volume faded as it recovered. Looking for it to stall out near the 90 day and then turn back over. To recap: Strong volume last Wednesday as CBRL broke below the 90 day MA that acted as support the past week, trying to prop up CBRL after its gap lower the last week of March. Money flow is at the bottom of the barrel (the cracker barrel) and price is stating to follow it down. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 760.007K Avg Volume: 755.95K
BUY POINT: $45.64 Volume=770K Target=$43.50 Stop=$46.05
POSITION: CBQ QI - May $45p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbrl.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
RECN (RSCS Connection--$31.17; -0.16; optionable): Finance, accounting, risk management, etc. services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-28-07
STATUS: Double top. Three downside sessions on a sharp rise in volume this month pushed RECN below the 90 day MA (31.51). It tried to recover last week, holding at some support at 31. That higher downside trade shows unloading of shares after that February and March double top. Looking for a break lower from here to give us the entry point. To recap: Volume was up again on the downside last Wednesday as RECN started lower from the 90 day MA, failing a test of that level Tuesday after breaking below that support Monday. Weak money flow is heading lower, leading RECN lower from its double top in February and March. RECN gapped higher in late December and RECN looks ready to fill that gap. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 593.279K Avg Volume: 392.744K
BUY POINT: $30.84 Volume=650K Target=$29.60 Stop=$31.21
POSITION: JJJ QF - May $30p (-37 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/recn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
