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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ATW; CXW; FLIR; GLDN; OII; POT
New Post-Split plays:
Play Date: 04/14/2007
ANST (Ansoft--$32.50; +0.08; optionable): EDA software for technology industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Looking at ANST again as it continues to hold on above the 18 day EMA (31.81), forming a three week handle to its 8 week base. Used the 50 day EMA (30.84) on the lows as support, the point where the big money steps in to support a stock if it is so inclined. This base is consolidating its strong surge on earnings in February and setting ANST up for another run at a new high. Solid money flow is helping set up the next break higher.
Volume: 60.407K Avg Volume: 159.789K
BUY POINT: $32.85 Volume=240K Target=$37.78 Stop=$31.68
POSITION: UZD GF - July $30c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
CX (Cemex SA--$34.79; -0.21; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a very nice run from January to February. It needed a break and formed the current 7 week base to do just that. It rallied sharply to start last week, clearing the 'hump' in the double bottom. It faded back to form the handle, holding above the 50 day SMA (34.50) on lower volume. May take a couple more sessions to form up but solid action setting up another breakout and run higher.
Volume: 2.17M Avg Volume: 3.332M
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=5M Target=$40.99 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: CX GG - July $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cx.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
TS (Tenaris--$48.49; +0.57; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ts.html
EARNINGS: 5-4-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Late last week TS started the breakout from a 10 week base that is part of a larger 16 week base. This pattern often forms at the bottom of a larger base and breaks the stock higher as it continues to work its way up in the base. Volume jumped Thursday as it started the move, and TS looks solid to continue higher.
Volume: 1.798M Avg Volume: 1.919M
BUY POINT: $48.71 Volume=2.9M Target=$56.00 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: TSW II - Sept. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ts.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 04/14/2007
DRIV (Digital River--$56.27; +0.60; optionable): e-commerce solutions for software, high-tech, retailers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumped Friday as an upgrade helped push DRIV up through its early March high. It has now made a higher low in its 20 week base, setting up a break higher. We have been watching DRIV all through this base. It was a big winner for us in 2006 and we have been waiting for it to provide us another opportunity to make us some money. Looking for some more strong volume to take it higher in its base, following the strong money flow.
Volume: 1.313M Avg Volume: 1.28M
BUY POINT: $56.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.68
POSITION: DQI IK - Sept. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/driv.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$129.79; +3.13; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup. Taking another look at ICE as it improved nicely to end last week, moving up to the 50 day EMA (130.07) on the Friday close as volume, while below average, jumped back up. If it can give us some strong volume as it moves through the 50 day we will look at opening some positions on the move. We will let it make that run, test it, and then as it turns up again we can add positions.
Volume: 3.137M Avg Volume: 4.98M
BUY POINT: $131.95 Volume=5M Target=$150.95 Stop=$127.55
POSITION: ICE FV - June $130c (55 delta) or ICE IW - Sept. $135c (44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ice.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast 4-18-07
ADM: Researching the date
BA: Tentatively set for late April
BLUD: Potential for an announcement this week.
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June
CHTT: Researching the date
CMTL: Forecast in early June
CNMD: Forecast early May
COLM: Forecast first week of May
CTRP: Forecast early May.
DLTR: Forecast late May
EXC: Researching date
GIL: Forecast early May
ISRG: Tentatively set 4-19-07. Setting up for another break higher.
JCI: Researching the date. Announced earnings late January.
MA: Tentatively set for early May.
MCHP: Tentatively set for 4-26-07
MM: No split in late March. Researching the next date as we enjoy the good move.
MRO: Forecast early May.
NOV: Researching date. Tentatively set for first week of May.
POT: Forecast 4-26-07
RL: Forecast first week of May.
SSYS: Forecast early May
THQI: Researching date
VMC: Forecast late April
VSEA: Tentatively set for early May.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/14/2007
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$78.28; -0.18; optionable): Medical supplies, lab equipment, diagnostic products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. BDX surged to end March and in early April, breaking out from its 7 week cup base on excellent volume. It is now testing that move, coming back the past week to tap and hold the 10 day EMA (77.86). Nice set up to take BDX to a new all-time high, and this base with its strong money flow is doing just that. Want to see volume kick up again as it resumes the breakout move. Very solid fundamentals matched to a strong price pattern.
Volume: 688.323K Avg Volume: 1.114M
BUY POINT: $79.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$90.95 Stop=$77.08
POSITION: BDX IP - Sept. $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
GOLD (Randgold Resources--$25.93; +0.60; optionable): Gold
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 6-16-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gold.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-07
STATUS: Ascending base. There's gold in them thar' gold stocks, at least of late. GOLD has set up a year long ascending base, breaking higher to start April with a very strong volume surge. It paused the past week, letting the 10 day EMA (25.16) rise up to meet it, and then took off on Friday. Volume was not huge, but it showed good volume on the breakout so we are not going to sweat that too much. Looking to move in on a continued move higher.
Volume: 268.272K Avg Volume: 391.045K
BUY POINT: $26.11 Volume=400K Target=$30.00 Stop=$24.88
POSITION: GUD IE - Sept. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gold.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/12/2007
BLUD (Immucor--$34.06; +0.39; optionable): Blood analysis, testing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-4-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher Friday on strong volume but faded after hitting the buy point. Still looking solid for a move higher this week. To recap: Big break higher on the earnings results, taking BLUD out of its 12 week base. It spent this week testing back then bounced Thursday on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow continues to lead the way higher. After this test BLUD is ready to move higher once more as well, moving again into new high territory. Strong stock with a great pattern and excellent fundamentals growth rates.
Volume: 1.182M Avg Volume: 783.831K
BUY POINT: $34.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.24
POSITION: QMQ IG - Sept. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 04/12/2007
CELG (Celgene--$57.98; -0.02; optionable): Cancer drug development
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Showed another doji Friday on below average volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding to flat. Still set to make the move higher. To recap: CELG surged to start the month, rallying to just below the December high at 60 and then pulling back this week to test the move. It tapped at and held the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low, rebounding nicely. Thursday it was up a bit more but on low trade. May take 2 to 3 more sessions to finish forming the handle, but want to be ready when it starts back up through the buy point. Strong fundamentals growth rates and a strong pattern. Nice.
Volume: 3.176M Avg Volume: 3.737M
BUY POINT: $58.98 Volume=5M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.44
POSITION: LQH GL - July $60c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
Play Date: 04/12/2007
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$64.99; +0.04; optionable): Sportswear, active clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Friday but faded to flat after giving that early move and a good part of the Thursday move back. Still in a nice pattern and in position to make the break higher. To recap: Very nicely formed 10 week base, using the 90 day MA as support as well as the last highs before its 2 year base in 2005 and 2006. Showing solid price/volume action in the pattern with volume moving up above average Thursday as it broke higher, the first above average trade since the first day of the month. Looking for more solid volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 243.93K Avg Volume: 284.752K
BUY POINT: $65.21 Volume=425K Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.98
POSITION: TQQ GM - July $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/09/2007
AMX (America Movil--$50.90; +0.53; optionable): Telecom wireless communications, Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Moved higher Friday to the buy point but volume was not there yet in its lateral move following the breakout. Looking for more trade this week to give us the buy point. To recap: AMX started the month with a strong surge out of a 7 week base, rallying on strong volume to a new all-time high. After that move it needed a breather and took one last week on lower trade. Last Monday it started higher on rising but below average volume, starting the rebound from the test and heading back for a new high.
Volume: 2.987M Avg Volume: 5.778M
BUY POINT: New: from here on rising volume (orig. $50.72) Volume=6M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: AMX HJ - Aug. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 04/12/2007
CSX (CSX Corp.--$42.46; -0.68; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
EARNINGS: 4-17-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. Continued the breakout Friday, gapping higher, but it could not hold the move. Faded for a modest loss on lower but still above average volume. Still looking for the break higher as showing a lot of momentum. To recap: Volume surged Thursday as CSX continued the breakout from a 7 week base. It broke higher last Monday on word Warren Buffet was buying railroads, then tested Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday it was back in action, rising on strong volume to a new all-time high. Ready to move in as CSX continues this breakout.
Volume: 10.88M Avg Volume: 7.739M
BUY POINT: $43.39 Volume=8M Target=$51.85 Stop=$41.11
POSITION: CSX HH - Aug. $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/csx.html
Play Date: 04/12/2007
FRX (Forest Labs--$54.97; +0.26; optionable): Branded and generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was better Friday, reaching toward average as FRX hit the buy point but backed off by the close. Still a nice base and on a break higher on strong trade we will move in. To recap: Forming a nice handle the past week to its 10 week base, setting up the next break higher and keeping the stock moving higher in its large 3 year base. Solid action in the pattern. May take a couple more sessions to complete the handle and set up the breakout move. Very nice set up.
Volume: 2.047M Avg Volume: 2.369M
BUY POINT: $55.05 Volume=3.6M Target=$61.95 Stop=$53.65
POSITION: FHA HK - Aug. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
Play Date: 04/10/2007
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$28.68; +0.43; optionable): Internet telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-12-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice volume bump and a nice price gain Friday as JCOM heads toward the breakout from its base. Showing the right attributes, now just needs to show a breakout. To recap: Working on a three week handle to its 9 month base. It gapped lower in early January then gapped back up to the same point in mid-March; an island reversal. Now working laterally after that last move, setting up for the next break higher. Looking for this low volume to turn into stronger volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 735.293K Avg Volume: 650.123K
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=1M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: JQF IE - Sept. $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/11/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$39.72; -0.28; optionable): Chinese online gamers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
Earnings: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Very low volume as NCTY continues its 4-day lateral move following the strong breakout. Great breakout, nice lateral move, and just waiting for a new break higher to move in. Very nice. To recap: Exploded higher last Monday on huge volume on the rumor EA was buying 19% of NCTY. EA responded no agreement was entered, but NCTY is holding the gains, working laterally the past two sessions on lighter trade, testing the break higher. The move took it out of a 10 week cup with handle base and to a new high. Waiting for the test to complete and then pick it up on the rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 134.869K Avg Volume: 422.155K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=500K Target=$47.95 Stop=$37.71
POSITION: NQT IH - Sept. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncty.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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