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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AGU; ATVI; BEAV; BTU; CROX; DRIV; EDU; GLDN; MS; NTGR; OIH; PAAS; PCU; ROCM; SPWR; VCLK; WFR; WMS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/16/2007
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$54.26; +1.26; optionable): Digital media distribution and storage, etc. for the internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom. AKAM has formed something we call a 'flying W' double bottom where the second leg does not undercut the prior one. With a strong stock this is a bullish pattern. AKAM made a high volume gap last Thursday that took it to the 'hump' in the double bottom. It did not make the break, but it caught our attention. Monday volume was up but still below average as it made the break over that mid-point in the pattern. Still looking for more volume as it continues higher. AKAM was a strong performer for us in its big 2006 run. It needed a break after that run and after a choppy end of 2006 and this base it has the look of being ready to make the move.
Volume: 2.717M Avg Volume: 4.08M
BUY POINT: $54.39 Volume=6M Target=$62.50 Stop=$52.68
POSITION: UMU HK - Aug. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 04/16/2007
FIG (Fortress Investment Group--$30.89; +1.35; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fig.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. FIG came public in February and immediately fell into its first base, an 8 week reverse head and shoulders. Money flow has turned higher ahead of price and Monday FIG blasted past the late March high and the neckline. Looking to move in as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 962.9K Avg Volume: 2.216M
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$36.95 Stop=$29.39
POSITION: FIG IF - Sept. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fig.html
Play Date: 04/16/2007
MAMA (Mama.Com--$5.35; +0.23; no options): Search technologies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mama.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-7-07
STATUS: Cup. Volume was up Monday as MAMA started higher off the 10 day EMA, looking to start the right side of its 16 week base. Strong money flow is well out ahead of price. Not one we want to hang onto forever, but it is really set up well for a run back up to the December high just over $8.
Volume: 6.334M Avg Volume: 2.433M
BUY POINT: $5.72 Volume=3M Target=$7.95 Stop=$5.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mama.html
Play Date: 04/16/2007
ROST (Ross Stores--$34.75; +1.16; optionable): Discount apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
EARNINGS: 5-23-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Monday as ROST surges off the 50 day EMA that acted as support in the 3 week handle to its 8 week base. This small base formed after the January breakout and run from a 3 year trading range. After that breakout and run it needed a breather; it takes a lot out of you to breakout of a long term base. Like this pattern and like the strong money flow. Retail sales did not hurt the move so we want to see it sustain this strength as it clears the March highs and shows us the buy point.
Volume: 1.835M Avg Volume: 1.364M
BUY POINT: $34.95 Volume=1.6M Target=$40.45 Stop=$33.24
POSITION: REQ HZ - Aug. $32.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rost.html
Play Date: 04/16/2007
TZOO (Travelzoo--$37.65; +0.55; optionable): Internet-based travel offer service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzoo.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-07 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TZOO has had more time to set up and we like the higher low it is making along the 18 day EMA in the handle to its 12 month base. The base hugged the 50 day EMA until moving higher in February and March when it formed the right side of the base. It made that higher low at the 18 day EMA. It has shown some high volume upside spikes, indicating there is some buying going on in the handle ahead of the earnings later this month. Always like to see that. A top earnings grower in the market. Just being patient to see if it will deliver a strong breakout from this longer term base.
Volume: 176.479K Avg Volume: 355.459K
BUY POINT: $38.18 Volume=545K Target=$45.95 Stop=$36.48
POSITION: QTV FG - June $35c (65 delta) or QTV IH - Sept. $40c (46 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tzoo.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/14/2007
CX (Cemex SA--$34.92; +0.13; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another lateral session in a tight range as CX continues the work on its handle. Nice action and just about ready for the breakout. To recap: After a very nice run from January to February. It needed a break and formed the current 7 week base to do just that. It rallied sharply to start last week, clearing the 'hump' in the double bottom. It faded back to form the handle, holding above the 50 day SMA (34.50) on lower volume. May take a couple more sessions to form up but solid action setting up another breakout and run higher.
Volume: 2.804M Avg Volume: 3.324M
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=5M Target=$40.99 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: CX GG - July $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cx.html
Play Date: 04/14/2007
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$41.68; +0.50; no options): Repair and maintenance services and products for industrial customers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-15-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji on continued low volume as DXPE continues to set up very nicely for the break higher. To recap: DXPE is working in a three week handle to a 12 month base, holding at the 18 day EMA on the past two tests, making a higher low as it sets up for a run at a breakout. May take a few more sessions to get the handle finished, but it is capable of running fast and hard when it takes off. It was showing some good volume to end last week as it jumped off the 18 day EMA, so we want to be ready.
Volume: 132.305K Avg Volume: 138.99K
BUY POINT: $42.38 Volume=210K Target=$54.95 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxpe.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$39.97; +0.25; optionable): Chinese online gamers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
Earnings: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji Monday on low volume as NCTY continues the lateral breakout test. Very tight, not wanting to give up its gains. Nice. To recap: Exploded higher last Monday on huge volume on the rumor EA was buying 19% of NCTY. EA responded no agreement was entered, but NCTY is holding the gains, working laterally the past two sessions on lighter trade, testing the break higher. The move took it out of a 10 week cup with handle base and to a new high. Waiting for the test to complete and then pick it up on the rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 152.865K Avg Volume: 417.881K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=500K Target=$47.95 Stop=$37.71
POSITION: NQT IH - Sept. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncty.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$19.35; +0.21; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Another stock showing a nice doji over the 18 day EMA, holding its breakout gains, refusing to give up any ground. Just waiting for this one to break higher. To recap: Blasted higher in late March, moving out of a 19 week base on huge trade. It reached 20 on the move, close to an all-time closing high. Working laterally the past three weeks, and now the 10 day EMA has caught up with it. It is just about there and looking for the move higher to resume. That is when we move in.
Volume: 585.668K Avg Volume: 1.032M
BUY POINT: $19.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$23.95 Stop=$18.74
POSITION: QPM GW - July $17.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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