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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split plays:
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 04/17/2007
KYPH (Kyphon--$49.58; -0.30; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kyph.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Lower volume pullback Tuesday after a nice, above average volume break higher Monday that took KYPH out of its 10 week base. Strong money flow is pushing KYPH to a new all-time high. Likely to come back a bit from here toward 48, but the initial move was strong and it could rebound from the Tuesday close without any further comeback.
Volume: 646.491K Avg Volume: 779.302K
BUY POINT: $49.95 Volume=900K Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.77
POSITION: QYQ IJ - Sept. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kyph.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast 4-18-07
ADM: Researching the date
BA: Tentatively set for late April
BDX: Forecast 4-25-07
BLUD: Potential for an announcement this week.
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June
CHTT: Researching the date
CMTL: Forecast in early June
CNMD: Forecast early May
COLM: Forecast first week of May
CTRP: Forecast early May.
DLTR: Forecast late May
EXC: Researching date
GOLD: Researching date. Tentatively set early May.
ISRG: Tentatively set 4-19-07. Setting up for another break higher ahead of earnings.
JCI: Researching the date. Announced earnings late January.
MA: Tentatively set for early May.
MCHP: Tentatively set for 4-26-07
MM: No split in late March. Researching the next date as we enjoy the good move.
MRO: Forecast early May.
NOV: Researching date. Tentatively set for first week of May.
POT: Forecast 4-26-07
RL: Forecast first week of May.
SSYS: Forecast early May
THQI: Researching date
VMC: Forecast late April
VSEA: Tentatively set for early May.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/17/2007
IEX (Idex--$51.51; +0.18; optionable): Machinery.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-22-04 at $44.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
EARNINGS: 4-19-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IEX is working on a 10 week rangy handle to a big 13 month base. It is making some higher lows at the 50 day EMA, bouncing off that level this week and showing some good volume as it did so on Tuesday. Earnings are Thursday. We are looking at waiting until the announcement and then see if that breaks it higher and gives us a move we can buy into.
Volume: 295.8K Avg Volume: 244.794K
BUY POINT: $52.32 Volume=367K Target=$58.95 Stop=$50.65
POSITION: IEX GJ - July $50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
Play Date: 04/17/2007
KSS (Kohls--$77.95; +1.18; optionable): Department stores
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3/6/2000 at $76.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kss.html
EARNINGS: 5-17-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. KSS broke out from a 5 month base in late March and rallied near 79 on the move. It has come back to test, holding at the 18 day EMA (76.65) on the lows the past week. Tuesday it bounced off that level and the move looked good, but no volume was present. That is on aisle 4. Solid stock and a nice breakout. Money flow is leading the way higher and KSS looks ready to follow it once more.
Volume: 2.158M Avg Volume: 2.733M
BUY POINT: $78.55 Volume=3.5M Target=$89.95 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: KSS GO - July $75c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kss.html
Play Date: 04/17/2007
YUM (Yum! Brands--$60.97; -0.10; optionable): KFC, Taco Bell, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom. YUM broke sharply higher Monday on rising, above average volume, approaching the 'hump' in its 4 month base that is setting the stock up for a breakout to a new high. Took a day off Tuesday on lower trade. Looking at some aggressive positions on another sharp move higher It had the tainted food awhile back and got boxed around. That did not stop it from setting up for a run at a new all-time high.
Volume: 974.4K Avg Volume: 1.392M
BUY POINT: $61.55 Volume=2.1M Target=$70.75 Stop=$59.38
POSITION: YUM GL - July $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yum.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/14/2007
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$78.61; -0.14; optionable): Medical supplies, lab equipment, diagnostic products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA, setting up for the next run in the breakout. Very nice. To recap: BDX surged to end March and in early April, breaking out from its 7 week cup base on excellent volume. It is now testing that move, coming back the past week to tap and hold the 10 day EMA. Nice set up to take BDX to a new all-time high, and this base with its strong money flow is doing just that. Want to see volume kick up again as it resumes the breakout move. Very solid fundamentals matched to a strong price pattern.
Volume: 624.2K Avg Volume: 1.098M
BUY POINT: $79.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$90.95 Stop=$77.08
POSITION: BDX IP - Sept. $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 04/12/2007
CELG (Celgene--$57.18; -0.55; optionable): Cancer drug development
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice test of the 10 day EMA Tuesday on some low, below average volume as CELG looks just about through with forming the handle that typically precedes the breakout move. Like it. To recap: CELG surged to start the month, rallying to just below the December high at 60 and then pulling back this week to test the move. It spent the last week tapping and holding the 10 day EMA. We said it might take a few sessions to finish the handle, and it looks as if it is done so. Strong fundamentals growth rates and a strong pattern. Nice.
Volume: 3.119M Avg Volume: 3.724M
BUY POINT: $58.98 Volume=5M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.44
POSITION: LQH GL - July $60c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
Play Date: 03/22/2007
MA (MasterCard--$109.65; +0.25; optionable): Financial and credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume continues as MA works laterally over the 10 day EMA for the past week in a very tight, narrow range. Very nice pattern and just waiting for it to show us the upside breakout.
Volume: 954.624K Avg Volume: 2.875M
BUY POINT: $110.78 Volume=4.5M Target=$121.00 Stop=$106.74
POSITION: MA GB - July $110c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ma.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/14/2007
ANST (Ansoft--$32.70; +0.24; optionable): EDA software for technology industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume has improved this week as ANST bumps at the breakout point. Surged Tuesday but could not hold it. Still looks ready. To recap: Looking at ANST again as it continues to hold on above the 18 day EMA (31.81), forming a three week handle to its 8 week base. Used the 50 day EMA (30.84) on the lows as support, the point where the big money steps in to support a stock if it is so inclined. This base is consolidating its strong surge on earnings in February and setting ANST up for another run at a new high. Solid money flow is helping set up the next break higher.
Volume: 142.797K Avg Volume: 159.738K
BUY POINT: $32.85 Volume=240K Target=$37.78 Stop=$31.68
POSITION: UZD GF - July $30c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/16/2007
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$53.58; -0.68; optionable): Digital media distribution and storage, etc. for the internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Faded back a bit Tuesday on continued below average volume, managing to hold above the 90 day MA on the close. Nice test of the break higher through resistance, setting up the next bounce. Looking for volume to jump as AKAM continues higher through the buy point. To recap: AKAM has formed something we call a 'flying W' double bottom where the second leg does not undercut the prior one. With a strong stock this is a bullish pattern. AKAM made a high volume gap last Thursday that took it to the 'hump' in the double bottom. It did not make the break, but it caught our attention. Monday volume was up but still below average as it made the break over that mid-point in the pattern. Still looking for more volume as it continues higher. AKAM was a strong performer for us in its big 2006 run. It needed a break after that run and after a choppy end of 2006 and this base it has the look of being ready to make the move.
Volume: 2.909M Avg Volume: 4.092M
BUY POINT: $54.39 Volume=6M Target=$62.50 Stop=$52.68
POSITION: UMU HK - Aug. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/akam.html
Play Date: 04/11/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$40.23; +0.26; optionable): Chinese online gamers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
Earnings: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still trading in a very tight range as NCTY continues testing that strong break higher last week. Refusing to give back its gains, a very good sign it will continue the breakout run. To recap: Exploded higher a week back on huge volume on the rumor EA was buying 19% of NCTY. EA responded no agreement was entered, but NCTY is holding the gains, working laterally the past two sessions on lighter trade, testing the break higher. The move took it out of a 10 week cup with handle base and to a new high. Waiting for the test to complete and then pick it up on the rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 211.963K Avg Volume: 417.538K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=500K Target=$47.95 Stop=$37.71
POSITION: NQT IH - Sept. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncty.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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