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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: EXC; POT; ROCM; WFR
New Post-Split plays:
Play Date: 04/24/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$35.60; +0.10; optionable): Electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors, coax cable, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Test breakout. APH broke higher last week on strong volume, surging out of a 22 week base that set a great foundation for the move. It rallied to 36.54 on the high and then faded to test, gapping lower Monday but on much lower volume. Tuesday APH tapped the 10 day EMA (35.08) on the low and rebounded for a modest gain, but volume jumped back up. That shows buyers at the ready to move in as it tested and held near support. Looking for a rebound on continued solid trade to start the play.
Volume: 1.732M Avg Volume: 1.152M
BUY POINT: $36.07 Volume=1.7M Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.95
POSITION: APH GG - July $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
Play Date: 04/24/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$32.55; +1.18; optionable): Programmable graphics processor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 5-12-07
STATUS: Cup. NVDA is surging off the bottom of its 16 week pattern that is forming. Stair-stepping higher off the double bottom formed in March and early April, clearing the 90 day MA (32.32) on the Tuesday move with some excellent volume. Nice surge as it rebuilds, and we are looking to move into some positions as it continues this excellent move in a nice rounded bottom.
Volume: 17.162M Avg Volume: 11.662M
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=12M Target=$37.85 Stop=$30.78
POSITION: UVA IZ - Sept. $32.50c 58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
Play Date: 04/24/2007
TLM (Talisman Energy--$19.12; -0.16; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlm.html
EARNINGS: 5-9-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TLM broke higher out of a 12 month trading range in early April, finally getting some strong volume as it made the move. It rallied near 20 then faded back the past week on lower, mostly below average volume. Strong money flow led the way on the breakout, and now this lower volume test is letting it reload and prepare for the next run higher. Nice hold at the 10 day EMA and some strong volume off of here is our entry point.
Volume: 2.247M Avg Volume: 3.309M
BUY POINT: $19.48 Volume=3.5M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.87
POSITION: TLM JW - Oct. $17.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tlm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast 4-25-07 with earnings
ADM: Forecast 5-1-07
BA: Tentatively set for 4-25-07
BDX: Forecast 4-25-07. Modest fade ahead of the earnings results.
BLUD: No split this past week. Researching next date
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June
CHTT: Researching the date
CMTL: Forecast in early June
CNMD: Forecast early May
COLM: Forecast first week of May. Earnings 4-26-07
CTRP: Forecast early May.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07
EXC: Tentatively set 4-25-07. Nice move higher into earnings.
GOLD: Tentatively set 5-8-07.
JCI: Gapped higher on strong earnings.
KSS: Forecast 5-17-07
MA: Tentatively set 5-2-07
MCHP: Tentatively set for 4-26-07
MICC: Tentatively set 4-24-07. No announcement with earnings.
MM: No split in late March. Researching the next date as we enjoy the good move.
MRO: Forecast 5-1-07
NOV: Tentatively set for first week of May. Earnings 4-27-07. Starting to break up so we took some gain and will look for a new buy point.
POT: Forecast 4-26-07
RL: Forecast first week of May.
SSYS: Forecast early May. Earnings 4-26-07
SU: Wild card. May announce with earnings on 4-26-07. Really nice pullback to near support.
SUN: Wildcard set for 5-2-07. Likely a bit early price-wise, but a great set up.
THQI: Researching date. Potentially set for early May
VMC: Forecast 4-30-07
VSEA: Tentatively set for early May. Went ahead and announced the split today.
YUM: Tentatively set 5-1-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/24/2007
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$82.53; -0.35; optionable): Teen clothing stores with risqu ads.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
EARNINGS: 5-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. It has been 7 years since ANF split, but it is trading up in its range once more and has set up a great pattern. Sweet 11 week cup with handle base broke higher on Friday though volume was rather modest. It tested this week, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday low and then rebounded. This is part of a larger 6 month pattern and is primed to move higher. Just looking for a hard volume session to send it higher.
Volume: 1.351M Avg Volume: 1.939M
BUY POINT: $83.05 Volume=2M Target=$94.95 Stop=$80.95
POSITION: ANF HP - Aug. $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
Play Date: 04/24/2007
CLB (Core Labs--$88.60; +1.89; optionable): Oil and gas services company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: Announced Tuesday
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher Tuesday on rising, above average volume, rallying up to the early April highs in its 19 week base. Excellent action that is setting it up for the breakout to a new all-time high and subsequent run.
Volume: 612.86K Avg Volume: 289.86K
BUY POINT: $89.88 Volume=445K Target=$103.95 Stop=$86.12
POSITION: CLB IR - Sept. $90c (52 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clb.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/21/2007
SU (Suncor Energy--$80.16; -0.66; optionable): Oil sands, energy refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Tight doji at the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume as SU continues its breakout test, still set to move higher. Earnings are Thursday; if it breaks higher on strong trade we will take a partial on that move. To recap: SU is working on a big 12 month base, the latter part a 17 week double bottom with handle that broke out just over a week back. It surged to 82 and then tested back last week as energy made its test. It fill the small gap on the move up on Thursday, then gapped higher Friday on rising, above average volume; very good price/volume action. Looking for a continued upside break on continued upside volume.
Volume: 1.622M Avg Volume: 2.552M
BUY POINT: $82.88 Volume=3.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.05
POSITION: SU IQ - Sept. $85c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
Play Date: 04/17/2007
YUM (Yum! Brands--$61.18; +0.20; optionable): KFC, Taco Bell, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice doji Tuesday on rising, average trade. Just needs to show the break higher. To recap: YUM broke sharply higher Monday on rising, above average volume, approaching the 'hump' in its 4 month base that is setting the stock up for a breakout to a new high. Took a day off Tuesday on lower trade. Looking at some aggressive positions on another sharp move higher It had the tainted food awhile back and got boxed around. That did not stop it from setting up for a run at a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.382M Avg Volume: 1.361M
BUY POINT: $61.55 Volume=2.1M Target=$70.75 Stop=$59.38
POSITION: YUM GL - July $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yum.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/19/2007
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$30.27; +0.06; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Strong break higher last week on strong volume, reaching a new high. Testing back to the 10 day EMA this week on lower trade, showing a doji on the candlestick chart Tuesday. Excellent pullback and looking for the next bounce on rising trade.
Volume: 128.342K Avg Volume: 174.362K
BUY POINT: $30.57 Volume=275K Target=$35.45 Stop=$29.54
POSITION: ZUG GF - July $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/20/2007
MUR (Murphy Oil--$56.52; -0.29; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Lower volume tap at the 10 day EMA this week after that strong Friday volume move. Still set to continue the break higher. To recap: MUR broke out from its 9.5 month base just over a week back and spent the past week consolidating the move, working laterally above the 10 day EMA (55.89) as the energy sector tested its last move higher. Friday it got some new volume and it bounced off the 10 day, starting to clear its lateral consolidation. Part of a much larger base, but MUR looks ready to make the break higher from here.
Volume: 1.192M Avg Volume: 1.42M
BUY POINT: $57.32 Volume=2M Target=$65.95 Stop=$55.48
POSITION: MUR GK - July $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mur.html
Play Date: 04/18/2007
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$42.81; +0.30; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Trying to start the rebound but no volume Tuesday as SWN cleared the 10 day EMA. Looking for that trade to ramp up to move in as SWN moves back up. To recap: SWN has faded to the 18 day EMA to test the breakout from its 17 week cup with handle two weeks back. Strong volume on this move higher and a bit high on the Tuesday fade, but that was symptomatic of the entire sector. It held near support, showing a doji Wednesday. This is also the high from December, a good support level. Looking for a high volume jump off of this level to show us the buyers are back in.
Volume: 2.078M Avg Volume: 1.977M
BUY POINT: $43.24 Volume=3M Target=$50.95 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: SWN IH - Sept. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
Play Date: 04/23/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$28.38; +0.45; optionable): Advanced positioning products for commercial and government clients
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid volume yet again as this time TRMB starts higher off the 10 day EMA. Looks super for the break higher, one of the best on the report. To recap: Nice handle has formed the past week to its 12 week base that formed using the 90 day MA (26.91) as support. Nice breakout and run November to January, hitting a new high along the way. It needed to set up for a new breakout, and this base is doing just that. Very nice volume two Mondays back on the break higher, then some solid volume Friday and Monday as it holds steady, preparing for the next break higher. Looking for that strong volume to continue as it makes the next break higher.
Volume: 704.552K Avg Volume: 641.379K
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=965K Target=$33.45 Stop=$27.38
POSITION: TUH HY - Aug. $27.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/19/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$29.83; +0.12; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Another low volume doji as VCLK continues moving laterally over the 10 day EMA, testing the prior breakout. Just being patient as we wait for the next rebound higher. To recap: VCLK gapped lower on the EBAY earnings but managed to hold the 10 day EMA on the close, showing a hammer doji on the candlestick chart. That pullback also put it right on top of the late February high that marks the top of the base. We are looking for VCLK to hold this support and then start to bounce on rising trade. If it does we will move right back in.
Volume: 978.973K Avg Volume: 1.931M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=2.6M Target=$35.45 Stop=$28.95
POSITION: QCS IF - Sept. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vclk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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