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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ATW; CXW; EQT; JCOM; NIHD; PTNR; ROCM; TRMB
New Post-Split plays:
Play Date: 04/26/2007
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$43.26; +0.55; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
EARNINGS: 6-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. ADBE moved higher Thursday on a good shot of above average volume, ready to break higher out of a 6 week ascending triangle that formed after the mid-March gap (earnings) out of a 12 week cup. Nice base on base action is setting up a breakout and run to a new all-time high. Strong money flow is jumping up ahead of price and ready to move in as ABDE makes the break. Strong stock.
Volume: 8.179M Avg Volume: 5.924M
BUY POINT: $43.48 Volume=6.3M Target=$50.45 Stop=$41.89
POSITION: AEQ GV - July $42.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adbe.html
Play Date: 04/26/2007
SIAL (Sigma-Aldrich--$42.45; +0.11; optionable): Biochemicals and organic chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sial.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-07
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume was up Wednesday and Thursday as SIAL moved toward earnings and the breakout from its 8 week triangle that formed using the 50 day EMA as support. Earnings were announced and SIAL gapped slightly lower and recovered; no huge move, no meltdown. Just working on its pattern. Looking for a strong move from this base; they are typically strong from these patterns.
Volume: 790.486K Avg Volume: 762.046K
BUY POINT: $42.66 Volume=1M Target=$50.95 Stop=$41.04
POSITION: IAQ GV - July $42.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sial.html
Leaders: Some more solid oil and gas plays:
Play Date: 04/26/2007
GSF (Globalsantafe--$64.18; +0.02; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsf.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-07
STATUS: Ascending base. GSF is pinching off at what appears to be the end of a 17 week base that made a series of higher lows above the 50 day EMA. Some very good price/volume action the past few weeks with volume looking solid as it bumps the breakout point. Earnings are next week, but really like the pattern and this one has a lot of positive backers. Ready to move in on the breakout, then we see what happens after earnings and pick up some more shares on the next test.
Volume: 3.694M Avg Volume: 4.227M
BUY POINT: $64.78 Volume=6M Target=$74.50 Stop=$62.55
POSITION: GSF GM - July $65c (53 delta) or GSF JM - Oct. $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsf.html
Play Date: 04/26/2007
PETD (Petroleum Development Corp.--$54.58; +1.52; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petd.html
EARNINGS: 3-5-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume is surging as PETD bumps against the breakout point from its 12 week base that formed to consolidate that mid-January surge higher that took it out of that longer, 9 month pattern. Great foundation beneath it and looking to move in as PETD continues higher and makes the breakout move.
Volume: 124.057K Avg Volume: 105K
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=150K Target=$65.75 Stop=$52.11
POSITION: PHQ JK - Oct. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/petd.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast 4-25-07 with earnings. No announcement but solid earnings. Jobs likes to announce at shareholder meetings so we will look for that next month.
ADM: Forecast 5-1-07
ANF: Looking at 5-23-07
BA: Tentatively set for 4-25-07. Closed the position out as BA has good news but could not do anything with it.
BDX: Forecast 4-25-07. Guided higher and had all sorts of decent news but could not do a thing with it.
BLUD: Researching next date
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07. Was not in the mood to announce and when its earnings came out it dove lower.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June
CHTT: Researching the date
CMTL: Forecast in early June
CNMD: Forecast early May
COLM: Forecast first week of May. Earnings 4-26-07
CTRP: Forecast early May.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07
EXC: Tentatively set 4-25-07. No split but what a move.
GOLD: Tentatively set 5-8-07.
KSS: Forecast 5-17-07
MA: Tentatively set 5-2-07
MCHP: Tentatively set for 4-26-07. Upped its dividend versus a split.
MM: No split in late March. Researching the next date as we enjoy the good move.
MRO: Forecast 5-1-07. Announced the split Wednesday.
NOV: Tentatively set for first week of May. Earnings 4-27-07.
POT: Forecast 4-26-07. Earnings surged but no split yet.
RL: Forecast first week of May.
SSYS: Forecast early May. Earnings 4-26-07. Exploding higher on earnings.
SU: Wild card with earnings on 4-26-07. Boosted its dividend.
SUN: Wildcard set for 5-2-07. Likely a bit early price-wise, but a great set up and a great break higher.
THQI: Researching date. Potentially set for early May
VMC: Forecast 4-30-07
VSEA: Announced its split Tuesday and some big earnings after the close Thursday.
YUM: Tentatively set 5-1-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/26/2007
TECH (Techne--$59.51; +0.12; optionable): Biotechnology. Wildcard for an announcement with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 12 week base has formed with a nice tight handle over the 10 day EMA. Nice set up to the breakout. This is acting as something of a handle to its 12 month cup with handle. Again, nice set up; just add volume.
Volume: 99.511K Avg Volume: 148.987K
BUY POINT: $60.15 Volume=225K Target=$69.45 Stop=$58.38
POSITION: TGQ GL - July $60c (53 delta, 152 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tech.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/19/2007
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$30.36; +0.10; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
STATUS: Test breakout. And yet another doji over the 10 day EMA as VIVO is still in position to make the move. Very strong trade Wednesday looked to put VIVO on track for the move, but it was gone Thursday and VIVO showed no viva. Still waiting for the next break higher after the breakout from its 10 week double bottom.
Volume: 171.629K Avg Volume: 172.129K
BUY POINT: $30.57 Volume=275K Target=$35.45 Stop=$29.54
POSITION: ZUG GF - July $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/24/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$35.73; +0.15; optionable): Electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors, coax cable, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still a nice test of the 10 day EMA after that breakout on earnings. One of those stocks we are picking up after the earnings. Looking good, just waiting on the next run. To recap: APH broke higher last week on strong volume, surging out of a 22 week base that set a great foundation for the move. It rallied to 36.54 on the high and then faded to test, gapping lower Monday but on much lower volume. Tuesday APH tapped the 10 day EMA (35.08) on the low and rebounded for a modest gain, but volume jumped back up. That shows buyers at the ready to move in as it tested and held near support. Looking for a rebound on continued solid trade to start the play.
Volume: 1.498M Avg Volume: 1.134M
BUY POINT: $36.07 Volume=1.7M Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.95
POSITION: APH GG - July $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
Play Date: 04/25/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$75.54; -0.33; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-20-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tightening up over the 10 day EMA in its breakout test, showing a nice, low volume doji over that near support Thursday. Getting very interesting here, and a break higher on a volume bounce is our entry point. To recap: SLB broke out from an 11 month base in early April, surging to 78. It gapped back down ahead of earnings. Earnings came out and it bounced higher, but continued in its lateral move above the 10 day EMA. Volume moved up to average Wednesday as it moved off that near support. Looking for continued solid trade as SLB continues up off the test.
Volume: 6.844M Avg Volume: 9.294M
BUY POINT: $76.75 Volume=10M Target=$88.45 Stop=$74.55
POSITION: SLB HO - Aug. $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
Play Date: 04/25/2007
SWS (SWS Group--$26.93; +0.31; optionable): Financial, investment services to corporate, institutional investors, broker/dealers, governmental entities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sws.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Modest gain but nice doji over the 10 day EMA on continued below average volume. Very nice set up for the breakout move, just ahs to show it. To recap: SWS is showing a nice hammer doji at the 10 day EMA as it faded back on lower, below average volume, forming a handle to its 11 week base that used the 50 and 90 day MA as support on the lows. Nice October to January run that needed a breather after its split. That has set up the next break higher.
Volume: 129.8K Avg Volume: 347.644K
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=521K Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.85
POSITION: SWS IE - Sept. $25c (69 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sws.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/23/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$53.68; +0.26; optionable): The new flip flops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A sweet 11 week cup with handle has formed with a nice, tight lateral move over the 10 day EMA on low volume shaking out the last sellers and setting up the breakout move. This is CROX' third base since coming public, and that still gives it room to run higher with a breakout.
Volume: 994.94K Avg Volume: 2.091M
BUY POINT: $54.66 Volume=3.1M Target=$64.95 Stop=$52.48
POSITION: CQJ IK - Sept. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crox.html
Play Date: 04/23/2007
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$61.32; +2.10; optionable): Russian Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped back up to average as GLDN came off of the 10 day EMA test, forging to a new all-time high. It is a buy on a continued move as it breaks out above resistance.
Volume: 257.096K Avg Volume: 256.708K
BUY POINT: $60.42 Volume=300K Target=$70.45 Stop=$56.78
POSITION: QDV IL - Sept. $60c (52 delta, 101 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gldn.html
Play Date: 04/19/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$29.79; -0.44; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Might get some play from the internet/BIDU results. Tested the 10 day EMA Thursday with a hammer doji. Still set to move, just has to show it. To recap: VCLK gapped lower on the EBAY earnings but managed to hold the 10 day EMA on the close, showing a hammer doji on the candlestick chart. That pullback also put it right on top of the late February high that marks the top of the base. We are looking for VCLK to hold this support and then start to bounce on rising trade. If it does we will move right back in.
Volume: 1.617M Avg Volume: 1.876M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=2.6M Target=$35.45 Stop=$28.95
POSITION: QCS IF - Sept. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vclk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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