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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BEAV; CROX; SPWR; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/30/2007
ASML (ASML Holdings--$27.25; -0.06; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asml.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ASML is in the chip sector, and as noted in the summary, the chips have come back to test last week's breakout from their ranges, and ASML has come back to the 10 day EMA (27.18) and is holding, closing flat Monday when most other stocks sold off, having held that level Friday as well. The breakout gapped it out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders of sorts, and it is refusing to give up much ground on the test. Looking for it to hold and deliver a solid upside move from here on rising trade.
Volume: 3.075M Avg Volume: 3.144M
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=3.5M Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.85
POSITION: MFQ JE - Oct. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asml.html
Play Date: 04/30/2007
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$48.50; +0.65; no options): MRO products (maintenance, repair, operating) to industrial customers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. DXPE made us some good money on its last run and breakout on those strong earnings announced last week. We took some gain and said when it came back to test we would be ready to move in. Monday it tapped the 10 day EMA on the low (46.07) and rebounded to close positive. That move pretty much filled the Wednesday gap out of the handle to its 12 month cup with handle base. Very nice action and looking to move in as it continues back up off of this test.
Volume: 294.122K Avg Volume: 180.952K
BUY POINT: $49.05 Volume=322K Target=$56.45 Stop=$45.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option change)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dxpe.html
Play Date: 04/30/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$22.16; -0.31; optionable): Coordination of benefits, program integrity services to government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07 after the close
STATUS: Ascending base. HMSY is setting up very nicely, and even though earnings are released Thursday evening we really like the 10 week pattern setting up. One of those stocks in the healthcare related field that has quietly set up during the last market rally. Strong upside trade to end last week and looking for a breakout to start some positions. Riskier with earnings, but it has been a strong earnings growth stock.
Volume: 64.929K Avg Volume: 227.281K
BUY POINT: $22.75 Volume=275K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.57
POSITION: QHT IX - Sept. $22.50c (51 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html
Play Date: 04/30/2007
RS (Reliance Steel--$59.40; -0.48; optionable): Steel fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Breakout test. RS made us some strong green on its last run as it blasted off on earnings in mid-April. It is coming back to test that move, easing back toward the 10 day EMA (58.24) on below average volume. Volume was up Monday, but it did not lose much ground on that pullback. Looking for RS tom come back and test the 10 day, and then we are going to look at picking it up on the rebound.
Volume: 1.355M Avg Volume: 1.286M
BUY POINT: $58.88 Volume=1.6M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.05
POSITION: RS IL - Sept. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rs.html
Play Date: 04/30/2007
TALX (Talx Corp.--$34.49; -0.24; optionable): Payroll related services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
EARNINGS: 5-9-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking a look at TALX again as it has now set up its base, a shallow ten week cup with handle. It broke higher last week on stronger, above average volume, and has faded to the 10 day EMA (34.44) to test. Looking for it to bounce up off of this level to give us the entry point.
Volume: 276.069K Avg Volume: 540.944K
BUY POINT: $35.38 Volume=750K Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: TUB IG - Sept. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/talx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/30/2007
TSO (Tesoro Petroleum--$121.20; +2.03; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tso.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Put. TSO surged higher the past week from a short consolidation. It peaked at 125 on Monday and started to roll over. It is in a steady uptrend up the 10 day EMA (114.48) but after breaking out in late January from a six month base. After such a run a stock typically takes a deeper test. We are looking for a move down near the 10 day EMA as an initial target, but it should sell more after such a strong run. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain. We are looking at May options to give us the best leverage, and thus if we get a quick move lower we will take some gain and not get too greedy.
Volume: 6.447M Avg Volume: 2.745M
BUY POINT: $120.77 Volume=2.9M Target=$116.00 Stop=$121.85
POSITION: TSO QD - May $120p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tso.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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