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stock share, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AH; CELG; CROX; PCLN; PTNR; TRMB; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/05/2007
ARRS (Arris Group--$15.54; +0.07; optionable): Communications technology for broadband networks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ARRS broke out from its 8 week cup with handle base on the earnings news, moving to a new 6 year high. It immediately bombed back down though volume fell below average as id did; quite curious action, but it held near support and bounced back up on rising trade. It finished out last week in a narrow range on lower volume, waiting for the 10 day EMA (15.32) to catch up with it. Just about there and ARRS is perched in the catbird seat for a break higher to continue that breakout move.
Volume: 1.349M Avg Volume: 2.955M
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$19.00 Stop=$15.21
POSITION: AQC HC - Aug. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/arrs.html
Play Date: 05/05/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$22.39; +0.91; optionable): Cost containment , coordination of benefits, fraud detection for government healthcare programs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Ascending base. We said we were going to keep watching HMSY, and we wanted to see how it made it through earnings. Earnings were solid and HMSY bounced off the 50 day EMA Friday that is acting as the support for higher lows in its 10 week base. You have to like the stock's position both technically and in the market. There is so much talk in the political campaigns about spending and how healthcare is a major nut we have to pay ahead. A company that helps contain costs has a great position in such an environment. The Friday move took it toward the breakout and we are watching for continued strength to push it to the breakout.
Volume: 167.1K Avg Volume: 195K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=275K Target=$26.57 Stop=$21.28
POSITION: QHT IX - Sept. $22.50c (51 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html
Play Date: 05/05/2007
OSK (Oshkosh Truck--$58.61; +2.68; optionable): Trucks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osk.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Cup with handle breakout. OSK set up a nice 10 week cup with handle base ahead of earnings. It broke higher Wednesday just before the announcement only to grind the gears and gap lower Thursday on the news, showing a big doji that held the 18 day EMA on the close. Friday it slammed it back into gear and climbed right back up to the Wednesday high on some continued solid volume. Liked that 'oh this was really good news after all' realization. Ready to move in as OSK continues higher out of this small base as it keeps on trucking toward the old at 65.
Volume: 1.62M Avg Volume: 758.765K
BUY POINT: $58.88 Volume=850K Target=$67.95 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: OSK JK - Oct. $55c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osk.html
Play Date: 05/05/2007
PENN (Penn National Gaming--$49.00; -0.09; optionable): Gaming and pari-mutuel properties in the US
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/penn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. PENN broke out from a 6 week cup base the second week of April well ahead of earnings. It announced a $200M share reversal on 4-20 but that didn't do a hell of a lot for it. It then got dicey (ha ha) ahead of earnings, falling to the 18 day EMA as it worked laterally. Earnings bounced it up off the 18 day to the high in the range. It ended the week with a nice, easy low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA. Now that is more like it. PENN is a good bet to make a higher low at this near support and then jump out of the gate for a new high.
Volume: 434.204K Avg Volume: 1.161M
BUY POINT: $49.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: UQN JJ - Oct. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/penn.html
Play Date: 05/05/2007
VLCM (Volcom--$41.54; +0.84; optionable): Volcom brand clothing, shoes, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlcm.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Okay. VLCM jumped ahead of earnings, catching us a bit off guard. Earnings bumped it even higher, yeah verily to a new all-time high (a new issue in June 2006). Now the test, and it is a nice one, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA (40.43) on a nice drop off in volume. Money flow remains high even as it makes this lateral move. We don't expect VLCM to stay in the consolidation very long. Leader in its sector.
Volume: 144.151K Avg Volume: 269.346K
BUY POINT: $41.95 Volume=400K Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: UQY GH - July $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vlcm.html
New Buy point on current position:
Play Date: 05/05/2007
OMCL (Omnicell--$23.39; -0.14; optionable): Medication control and patient safety for acute health care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Looking at some new positions on OMCL as it comes back from its earnings induced breakout in late April that took OMCL to a new all-time high. Nice controlled and safe pullback to the 10 day EMA (23.10) on low volume is setting up the next run since the breakout. The first test of a breakout is one of our A-1 entry points because when a stock starts back up on strong volume after a breakout pushed it higher, that shows us that the big money still wants it and is willing to pay up for it.
Volume: 301.067K Avg Volume: 336.91K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=450K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.58
POSITION: QNU IE - Sept. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/omcl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/05/2007
SAF (Safeco--$64.50; -0.34; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/saf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Put. Earnings were not kind to SAF as it plunged from what was trying to set up as a double bottom with handle to below the 90 day MA (65.19). It spent the rest of the week with a half-hearted test of that breakdown, tapping at the 90 day MA Friday on the intraday high but then turning back down. Money flow is in the tank, and relative strength should be referred to as relative weakness. It gapped higher in late January, and the fill of that gap is just below 62. SAF looks like a pretty safe bet after this high volume crash of the 90 day MA to fill that gap. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 668.284K Avg Volume: 769.251K
BUY POINT: $64.28 Volume=800K Target=$62.04 Stop=$65.21
POSITION: SAF TM - Aug. $65p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/saf.html
Really ripe to move:
HLTH
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock share
stock recommendation
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