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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: TMCS lunged up from the 10 day MVA after testing the breakout from the v-bottomed base. Strong volume, solid move! BBX broke out of the cup with handle after giving us pause earlier this week! EMC looked good as news came in that earnings loss was less than expected; it gapped over resistance on strong volume (a trend reversal gap, a very bullish move!). WB continued its breakout over the 200 day MVA today, and LLL looked good, as did NVDA.
Targets hit today: RBK (29).
Stocks/Indexes from the Wednesday report:
WERN: Cut short the breakout move though it tried on a pop up to 27.94. Stronger volume and the tombstone doji can take the stock back down to the 18 day MVA.
ANSR: Hugging the 18 day MVA tighter in the handle. Want to see a hold here as volume crept higher and the stock pulled off the high again.
SBGI: A move up in the handle with volume inching higher (still well below average). Looks good!
PSFT: A put play but in regular trading was over the 50 and 18 day MVAs (buy point for the downside play is 35; 50 day MVA is at 37.31) on a strong earnings report (2 cents ahead of estimates). Was pummeled after hours but recovered to within a few cents off the regular closing price (38.43).
IGT: Beat earnings expectations but U.S. unit sales dropped 16 percent in the first quarter. That was enough to batter the stock down below the 50 day MVA in regular trading. Volume was huge, and if it does not pop back over the MVA tomorrow, will be time to close positions. Were looking for a pop out of the lateral pattern on some good news.
Continued Plays:
AMZN: After a big gap up Tuesday when the company announced its first ever profit, AMZN pulled back for a day but Thursday surged back up again on rising again rising volume. We are looking for a move higher, then a pullback into a handle to the 6-month base.
BEAS: Rallied on SEBL's tail, gapping higher on strong volume. Can move up to the 200 day MVA (22.50) but may hit resistance there.
BZH: Strong breakout from the cup with handle.
RESP: Horrendous drop below all support and heading for the September lows near 29. Reported earnings today were good, but revenues expected to be 2% lower for this year. A bit of an extreme reaction from the looks of it.
SEBL: Gapped up on earnings and showed a doji on strong volume. Look for a pullback to test 36.
TECD: Was higher in the ascending wedge but volume keeps dropping! Want it to support the move up (increase).
SUBSCRIBER'S CHOICE:
HELE (Helen of Troy--$14.56; +0.08; optionable): Consumer Durables: Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hele.html
STATUS: HELE made a strong breakout from a 4-month ascending wedge (formed at the bottom of a slightly larger base) earlier this month. It reached a high of 15.79 and has made a pullback to the 18 day MVA (14.17), not the smoothest action in the test, but volume has been falling off and for 2 days HELE holds the support of the 18 day. Volume Thursday was down to 192,600 (avg 263,000). Look for a continued hold at this support until the stock moves back up after the test, when interested investors can consider taking aggressive positions before the stock hits the high. May be a good bet: the stock shows excellent money flow and buying. One of the company's customers is K-Mart, and while the effects of the latter's bankruptcy filing have not been determined, earnings forecast remains optimistic for this year. Target: 18
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 14.80 (over the 10 day MVA, 14.61) on volume in the range of 265,000. Stop: 13.76 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $12.50 calls to buy (EHQ EV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hele.html
Best Plays:
1) RNBO: A nice pullback to support.
2) NVDA: On the move.
3) MSFT: Setting up for a fall.
New: Some good patterns. Remember, in this market on upside action we are looking for a 15-20% move up to targets and at that point taking our profits.
RNBO (Rainbow Technologies--$10.40; +0.19; optionable): Security Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnbo.html
STATUS: In a year-long cup with handle base that is inside a 14-month base with previous highs near 26. The stock made a good run up and over the 200 day MVA back in November, completing the right side of a 7-month cup and breaking out of that on huge volume early in January. Reaching the breakout high at 11.05, the stock is now testing the strong move (handle) on rapidly decreasing volume and gradually declining prices over the last 8 days (save a Tuesday volume spike that can presage a move up). It is holding above support at 10 (the 10 day MVA is at 10.06). Volume, though low, was on the rise to 131,200 (avg. 250,000), with RNBO making a small move up. Look for the breakout over 1.05 on strong volume. Huge money flow and buying! Target: 14
BUY POINT: 11.15 on volume of 375,000 or higher. Stop: 10.37 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March $10 (BQO CB; very low open interests) or April $7.50 calls to buy (BQO DU; 58 open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rnbo.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, KRON, MIK, BMET, APPB, MYL, IGT
NVDA (Nvidia--$65.64; +2.27; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Moved over the 18 day MVA (64.58) on strong volume (just over the average at 9.5 million; avg. 9 million) after testing the 50 day MVA twice over the last several days. Hit our aggressive buy point at 65.55 and with this positive move looks ready to make the run up to the December highs near 72 for the initial target. Can still get into the play on a continued move up from here (aggressive). Money flow and relative strength ahead of price.
BUY POINT: 65.75 on continued strong volume. Stop: 61.15 (7%). Riding positions taken at 65.55.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $60 calls to buy (RVU CL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$71.74; -0.47; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Last covered 1-07 when the stock was making a good bounce from the 50 day MVA. Topped out on that move at the January high of 73.50, then pulled back with 3 ever-tightening dojis above the 10 day MVA until Thursday, when DGX tapped down to the 18 day MVA on the low of 70.30. Trying to form a handle here, to the stock's 7-month v-bottomed base, started after the nice run off March lows topped out near 76. Volume was lower at 404,700 (avg. 619,409) as DGX showed the tight doji above the 10 day MVA (71.14). May consolidate further in the handle, but look for a breakout over the high. Strong money flow. Earnings January 28. Target on breakout: 88
BUY POINT: 73.60 on volume of 930,000 or higher. Stop: 68.45 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $65 calls to buy (DGX EM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dgx.html
FRX: Sharp move down to the 18 day MVA from where it bounced. Tried to break out of the cup with handle base yesterday but failed. At least it bounced from the support, back above the 10 day MVA (81).
ACS: The cataclysmic fall after the move over the upper channel continues, breaking below the up trendline on huge volume. It could conceivably run to the 200 day MVA (84) as these types of breakdowns can do.
MYL: Tanked below the 50 day MVA though earnings were strong. The stock was downgraded by ABN AMRO. A big drop and a sell if it cannot recover tomorrow. It will most likely try to snap back a bit toward 35, but may not be more and will most likely happen intraday.
KRON: Tried to break out but sold back on strong volume; earnings were good for this company, too. Held the 18 day MVA for now. That has been strong support since early December, but we do not like the volume. For recent positions we will not let it fall further.
LLL: Nice move up on rising volume, as LLL just about completed the 15-week base. Previous high in the base is at 98.07. Can't really call the last pullback of 2 days (on rising volume) a good handle, so we will see if LLL stalls on this move to form one. However, good price/volume action today!
APPB: Moved up from the 18 day MVA on a nice rise in volume. In a short double bottom with the middle hump high at 36.20 (closed at 35.20 today).
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL, EBAY, KG.
EBAY: Did not move to close below the 200 day MVA, so time to close out the puts. It bounced up to the 10 day MVA today but was back down near the lower support to close the day. Looks ready to hold for now.
SRCL: Bounced off the 50 day MVA and at last moved over the 18 day MVA, a move we have anticipated since January 7. Volume was lower on the move, but we are looking for SRCL to hold the 18 day now. Buy point for aggressive positions is over 60.35 (recent high in the consolidation).
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, BUD.
MSFT (Microsoft--$64.60; +0.86; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: MSFT broke its 50 day Monday and then the 200 day MVA next day. It remains below the 200 day, moving up from the Wednesday doji to the resistance on a rise in volume (42 million; avg. 28.6 million). Volume has been high all week, and today helped the stock to the intraday high at 65.18 (200 day is at 64.81), but MSFT closed below the resistance. Now it may be able to make that move again and hold for a move up to the 50 day MVA. If not, however, on a strong move down below Wednesday's low (63.24) we will look at playing it down to 58 for an initial target. Below that, 53. We can also look for "the kiss good-bye" on a move up to the 50 day MVA and strong selling on a move back down. We will see what it does with the current situation first.
BUY POINT: Below 63.24: 63 on rising volume.
POSITION: March $70 puts to buy (MSQ ON).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/msft.html
AMAT: Setting up for a fall as well after selling down to the recent support (40) on stronger volume. Can drop to 36.45 (a November low) for initial target. On existing positions, we would look to sell February or March $40 or $35 calls and buy back when support holds.
BRCM: A nice hold at the 50 day MVA after yesterday's after hours troubles. Traded below the support but closed back over it on rising volume. Still not looking very strong, but we like the move at least (other support at the 50 day MVA is the up trendline composed by the October and December lows).
JNJ: A doji below the 50 day MVA, but at the bottom of a sell-off. We will look for it to move back over the support level in a hurry. Has an up trendline at 57.50 (the stock closed at 58.04 with volume falling).
BUD: Lots of good work trashed as the stock broke the 18 day MVA and fell out of the ascending wedge on strong, above average volume. No news to explain the drop. The 50 day MVA is at 44.62.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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