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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALXN; BTU; CROX; ICE; MA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/09/2007
BIDU (Baidu.com--$127.08; +1.84; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BIDU exploded higher in late April on some upsized earnings. It has worked laterally the two weeks, bouncing up and down as the 10 day EMA (121.46) rises to catch up with it. It gapped lower in February and then back up in late April from the same point, creating an island reversal. Volume has been below average on the move, showing no selling and refusing to give up its gains. Money flow remains strong, moving higher as the stock works laterally. May take some time to set up for the next break higher, but it can fly on any given session. Looking for the break higher and some volume as well.
Volume: 1.646M Avg Volume: 2.211M
BUY POINT: $128.45 Volume=3.2M Target=$144.50 Stop=$123.95
POSITION: BDQ FE - June $125c (59 delta) or BDQ IF - Sept. $130c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bidu.html
Play Date: 05/09/2007
CLB (Core Labs--$94.54; -0.26; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CLB tested lower Tuesday and Wednesday, but rebounded both sessions, Wednesday on a strong shot of volume as it reversed course. It got us on Tuesday when oil was weak; we closed it for a modest gain, but now it is setting up to move higher again. It is testing the late April breakout from an 18 week double bottom with handle base, setting up a run over 100. Like the volume Wednesday on the recovery as it shows buyers stepped back in, and that indicates it has the support to continue the breakout run. Want to see more good trade as it continues.
Volume: 445K Avg Volume: 292.061K
BUY POINT: $95.55 Volume=450K Target=$106.75 Stop=$92.11
POSITION: CLB IS - Sept. $95c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clb.html
Play Date: 05/09/2007
HAL (Halliburton--$33.15; +0.78; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom. HAL is in a 13 month base, approaching the November/December 2006 high that marks the hump in the pattern. Somewhat ragged but definitely showing some better volume the past three weeks. Good trade Wednesday as it jumped up off the 50 day EMA and cleared the early April highs. Good enough action to move in as it continues the move higher. After a long base and spinning off the unit that brought all of the negative publicity in the Iraq war, HAL looks to be back in the game.
Volume: 26.265M Avg Volume: 23.701M
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=30M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.04
POSITION: HAL JS - Oct. $32.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hal.html
Play Date: 05/09/2007
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$135.01; +0.54; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-19-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. ISRG announced good earnings and gapped higher, running to 135. It has worked laterally since, now making higher lows at the 10 day EMA as it bunches for a breakout over 135. That move also takes it out of its longer 16 month base. Volume has run lower the past two weeks as it consolidates; want to see it jump up as it makes the next break higher and onto a new all-time high. Great money flow is leading higher. ISRG can fly when it gets going.
Volume: 563.11K Avg Volume: 782.448K
BUY POINT: $135.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$149.95 Stop=$132.31
POSITION: AXQ GW - July $135c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isrg.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/09/2007
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$64.92; +0.66; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Put. EXBD has made two big gaps lower in its downtrend that started a year ago. Its most recent gap lower was on earnings that did not pass muster. It rebounded from that gap but found resistance at the 10 day EMA (65.45). That stopped the rebound, bending the price down below that near resistance. It has not broken lower, but a stock will often have 3 gaps lower in a downtrend before the downtrend bottoms. Looking for EXBD to fail at the 10 day and fall through the Tuesday closing low (64.26) on some good volume. That will indicate the next down leg is underway. A move to our initial target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 698.798K Avg Volume: 704.706K
BUY POINT: $64.22 Volume=775K Target=$62.00 Stop=$64.78
POSITION: EBU RM - June $65p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exbd.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/05/2007
ARRS (Arris Group--$15.51; +0.18; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ARRS has held the 18 day EMA (15.20) after gapping higher in late April in a move that took it out of its 8 week cup with handle base. After a nice, easy test it started off the near support. Looking for some more volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.468M Avg Volume: 3.12M
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$19.00 Stop=$15.21
POSITION: AQC HC - Aug. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arrs.html
Play Date: 05/08/2007
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$28.73; +0.14; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ATHR tapped down to the 18 day EMA (27.84) on the Wednesday low and then rebounded to again hold the 10 day EMA. Nice shakeout in this test of the early May breakout move. Just waiting for the volume to jump as ATHR does the same. To recap: Taking another look at ATHR as it tests back to near support. Low trade on this pullback following the huge volume on May 1 as it started the break higher from its 9 week double bottom pattern. This is part of a much larger 13 month base, this last move taking ATHR to a new all-time high. Nice test that is setting up the next run to a new high. It lacked volume after the initial breakout move and we held off from entering on that drift higher. Now we want to see that volume come back in after this test.
Volume: 858.674K Avg Volume: 1.637M
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=1.8M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.65
POSITION: QRA IE - Sept. $25c (77 delta) or QRA IF - Sept. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/athr.html
Play Date: 05/07/2007
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$37.59; +0.01; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent action in the handle of its base. CGB is close to make the break higher with this tight action. Just being patient and letting it make its breakout as well. To recap: CBG gapped higher last week on its earnings result, reaching the early February high on the move. It peeled back a bit Thursday through Monday on lower, and lower trade. Monday's volume was barely measurable. An overstatement, but the point is no sellers as it fades back from this test. Nice 13 week base has set up, ready to break higher and send CBG to a new all-time high. Very nice pattern.
Volume: 2.384M Avg Volume: 2.091M
BUY POINT: $38.32 Volume=3.2M Target=$44.32 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: CBG IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbg.html
Play Date: 04/30/2007
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$49.59; +1.05; no options): Wholesale industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DXPE gapped out of a 12 month cup with handle base in late April, rallying to 54 on the move. It is testing, holding the 10 day EMA (48.07) as it does. Nice low volume, refusing to give up much of the gain. Has been flirting with the continued break higher, just has yet to show the volume. When it does it is a buy.
Volume: 140.303K Avg Volume: 191.027K
BUY POINT: $49.05 Volume=322K Target=$56.45 Stop=$45.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option change)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxpe.html
Play Date: 05/02/2007
HOLX (Hologic--$60.72; +0.21; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. HOLX broke higher from a 12 week ascending pattern to start May. This followed the late January breakout from a larger 10 month pattern. Strong volume on the breakout and a nice easy test the past week has taken it back to the 18 day EMA (59.92). Tried to make a bounce there Wednesday, but no volume to push it. A solid leader in position to continue the upside.
Volume: 589.583K Avg Volume: 1.003M
BUY POINT: $62.67 Volume=1M Target=$71.95 Stop=$59.97
POSITION: QHX IL - Sept. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/holx.html
Play Date: 05/05/2007
OMCL (Omnicell--$22.88; -0.11; optionable): Medication control and patient safety solutions for acute health care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Sweet pullback to the 18 day EMA (22.65) as OMCL makes a low, below average volume test of the strong break higher in late April that took it close to 25. Good break higher from a 10 week base. This is the first test, and when a stock rebounds from that first test on a strong shot of volume that tells you the buyers are back and wanting more even at a higher price. That shows a lot of demand for the stock, and we want to be in it. Strong money flow is leading higher even as the price pulls back.
Volume: 162.527K Avg Volume: 330.721K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=450K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.58
POSITION: QNU IE - Sept. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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