|
|
us stock market, trade stock
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CNX; ESV; GSOL; LYO; NTGR; RIG; ROSE; SPR; TIN
New Plays:
Play Date: 05/12/2007
EPIQ (Epiq Systems--$23.92; +0.98; optionable): Software for legal and fiduciary service industries. Splits 3:2 on 6-8-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epiq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. EPIQ broke higher from a 13 month cup with handle in late April, but it did not get very far before it started to test. It worked laterally the past two weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (22.90) on the lows. Friday volume blasted higher as EPIQ cleared the highs in the lateral breakout consolidation. Now it looks ready to make the run higher.
Volume: 319.718K Avg Volume: 165.192K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=175K Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.87
POSITION: FQU GX - July $22.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/epiq.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
JEF (Jeffries Group--$32.05; +0.88; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent volume in late April and early May as JEF surged higher off the 50 day EMA, forming the last leg of its 13 month base. After that move it tested as much of the market rallied, holding the 18 day EMA (31.29) to close out the week, forming the handle to the base. At the same time it pulled back, money flow was rallying higher. Excellent pattern and excellent action setting up the next breakout and run higher. Volume was up and above average Friday as it bounced off the 18 day. Looking for that to continue and give us the buy point.
Volume: 2.019M Avg Volume: 1.464M
BUY POINT: $33.05 Volume=2.2M Target=$39.75 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: JEF JF - Oct. $30c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jef.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
SPN (Superior Energy--$38.42; +1.84; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spn.html
EARNIGNS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. From the general to the specific, we are also looking at SPN as it continues its breakout move. It broke high from a 15 week double bottom with handle in April, but the run peaked at 38 and then faded as energy went through a bit of a pullback. It worked laterally for 4 weeks and then Friday it got the nod, posting a strong price and volume gain as it cleared the highs in the lateral move. Showing superior energy on this move and we are ready to tap into it as it continues higher this week.
Volume: 1.827M Avg Volume: 1.35M
BUY POINT: $38.71 Volume=1.6M Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.21
POSITION: SPN IG - Sept. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spn.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$62.60; +1.90; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Could announce a split for us this week.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-9-05 at $51.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong break higher to start May as UPL rallied on strong earnings. It then tested laterally the past 2 weeks, coming back to tap and test the 10 day EMA (60.93), holding that as support. Beautiful textbook pattern, good earnings in the book, and set up to move higher. Looking for more trade as UPL shows us some ultra moves. You throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. Looks as if UPL is in that kind of a groove.
Volume: 1.153M Avg Volume: 955.751K
BUY POINT: $63.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$73.95 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: UPL IL - Sept. $60c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/upl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/12/2007
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters--$29.14; +0.68; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeo.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Put. Same store sales fell 14% but after breaking below the 200 day SMA (29.70) to start May, AEO was moving up into the number and it did not wreck the stock. It didn't send it shooting higher either. Friday it gapped up to the 18 day EMA, but it ran out of gas at that point, showing a loose doji on the session. Volume was lower and below average; not a lot of power any way you slice it. It managed to hold the early March lows, but we don't think it is going to do so this next trip down apparel lane. This is a large 7 month umbrella top, and the break of the key 200 day SMA shows a serous lack of commitment by the big money. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain. It looks as if AEO could drop further to 26, however.
Volume: 2.092M Avg Volume: 3M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=3M Target=$27.25 Stop=$29.34
POSITION: AEO RF - June $30p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aeo.htm
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, PCLN, NVDA, NYX
AAPL: Survived the contentious shareholders meeting and continued on up though on lower trade Friday. It has so much built into the move right now that if it does announce this week it will have a hard time getting more out of the move.
AKAM: trying to put in some bottom to bounce here at 44, but it has a massive amount of overhead supply from those series of higher peaks to work through, and it is going to take a lot more basing out to get rid of that and clear the path higher.
DRIV: Nice tight doji at the 50 day EMA on low volume. If it shows a high volume bounce from here we are going to look at adding some positions.
GME: Coming back to test. It had to after such a strong move. 32ish is a good support level.
PCLN: Still struggling, but holding near the prior range.
NVDA: Nice gap higher on strong earnings related volume, breaking out from the three week lateral handle.
End part 1 of 3
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
