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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DO; ESV; GSF; GSOL; HNP; ICE; LYO; NTGR; NVDA; RIG; ROSE; SU; TMO; UAPH
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/12/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$227.50; +4.40; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-13-07
STATUS: Ascending base. GS has formed a 4 week ascending base along the 10 and 18 day EMA following a mid-April move higher off the 50 day EMA. This last pattern is basically an extension of an 8 week base consolidating the strong September to February run. Volume has been low most of the move, though it was very strong as GS moved off the 50 day EMA in April. During this recent sideways move the low volume is a good thing. Want to see it perk up as GS makes the next break higher, however, clearing the three week lateral move. The leader in its sector, and when it gets going the gains come quickly. Using options as at this stock price it ties up an awful lot of capital for the gain you would get in the stock alone.
Volume: 4.958M Avg Volume: 7.452M
BUY POINT: $228.25 Volume=9M Target=$249.00 Stop=$222.75
POSITION: GPY GF - July $230c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gs.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
LFC (China Life Insurance--$50.27; +3.47; optionable): Chinese life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. The Chinese ADR's were moving Friday for a number of reasons: loosening restrictions, strong China GDP, and a strong trade surplus. Oh yes, and strong patterns. LFC formed a great 18 week base using the 50 day EMA as support, a level where the bigger buyers accumulate shares. It bounced up in April and formed the laterally 4 week handle over the 18 day EMA. That set the stage, and when the news high Friday, LFC was in breakout mode, surging higher and above the handle high on the best volume in 4 months. Looking to move in with some positions as it continues the move and then adding on the first successful test.
Volume: 4.756M Avg Volume: 1.2M
BUY POINT: $50.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$58.45 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: LFC JJ - Oct. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lfc.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$43.20; +1.96; optionable): Chinese online games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Looking at NCTY again as it has set up once more and is trying to make the next break higher. NCTY jumped out of a 10 week base in early April, gapping higher on serious volume. It got away from us on that gap, and we kept watching to see if it would test. It has, but it has refused to give up any ground in the test, instead moving laterally at roughly 42, consolidating the gains as it held them as well. Friday volume moved up to average as NCTY jumped higher with most of the Chinese stocks. Want to see some more trade as it makes the rest of the break higher, but it is looking very good and is the leader in its sector.
Volume: 296.372K Avg Volume: 384.073K
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=475K Target=$50.00 Stop=$40.98
POSITION: NQT IH - Sept. $40c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncty.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
OIH (Oil Services Hldrs Trust--$162.46; +4.66; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oih.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Looking for OIH to make us some more money after it has tested its last run that we rode to some nice gains. It came back to the 18 day EMA and tapped at that level all last week, bouncing up and down. Friday it got its feet under it as the energy sector recovered, the services companies included. Looking to move in as the OIH continues bouncing higher. A move to the target provides a handsome return. A $10 move, not too difficult for OIH when it starts running, returns a bit more than 60%.
Volume: 8.899M Avg Volume: 9.643M
BUY POINT: $162.88 Volume=10M Target=$178.00 Stop=$159.22
POSITION: OIH GL - July $160c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oih.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
SPN (Superior Energy--$38.42; +1.84; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spn.html
EARNIGNS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. From the general to the specific, we are also looking at SPN as it continues its breakout move. It broke high from a 15 week double bottom with handle in April, but the run peaked at 38 and then faded as energy went through a bit of a pullback. It worked laterally for 4 weeks and then Friday it got the nod, posting a strong price and volume gain as it cleared the highs in the lateral move. Showing superior energy on this move and we are ready to tap into it as it continues higher this week.
Volume: 1.827M Avg Volume: 1.35M
BUY POINT: $38.71 Volume=1.6M Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.21
POSITION: SPN IG - Sept. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/12/2007
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters--$29.14; +0.68; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeo.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Put. Same store sales fell 14% but after breaking below the 200 day SMA (29.70) to start May, AEO was moving up into the number and it did not wreck the stock. It didn't send it shooting higher either. Friday it gapped up to the 18 day EMA, but it ran out of gas at that point, showing a loose doji on the session. Volume was lower and below average; not a lot of power any way you slice it. It managed to hold the early March lows, but we don't think it is going to do so this next trip down apparel lane. This is a large 7 month umbrella top, and the break of the key 200 day SMA shows a serous lack of commitment by the big money. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain. It looks as if AEO could drop further to 26, however.
Volume: 2.092M Avg Volume: 3M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=3M Target=$27.25 Stop=$29.34
POSITION: AEO RF - June $30p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aeo.htm
CURRENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/05/2007
ARRS (Arris Group--$15.56; +0.45; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Another hold at the 18 day EMA and then a bounce higher Friday. Volume, unfortunately, did not go with it. Still solid and all it needs is some trade to really send it surging. Nice test of the breakout from its 8 week cup with handle, and now set for more.
Volume: 1.262M Avg Volume: 2.899M
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$19.00 Stop=$15.21
POSITION: AQC HC - Aug. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arrs.html
Play Date: 05/09/2007
BIDU (Baidu.com--$128.12; +3.24; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still low volume as BIDU continues its lateral move in the handle of its base. The 10 day EMA is almost caught up to it and looking for that to send it on the breakout move. To recap: BIDU exploded higher in late April on some upsized earnings. It has worked laterally the two weeks, bouncing up and down as the 10 day EMA (123.18) rises to catch up with it. It gapped lower in February and then back up in late April from the same point, creating an island reversal. Volume has been below average on the move, showing no selling and refusing to give up its gains. Money flow remains strong, moving higher as the stock works laterally. May take some time to set up for the next break higher, but it can fly on any given session. Looking for the break higher and some volume as well.
Volume: 1.274M Avg Volume: 2.21M
BUY POINT: $128.45 Volume=3.2M Target=$144.50 Stop=$123.95
POSITION: BDQ FE - June $125c (59 delta) or BDQ IF - Sept. $130c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bidu.html
Play Date: 05/07/2007
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$37.46; +0.42; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded for a gain on the close. Nice test of the near support to set the handle. Now it is ready for the breakout. To recap: CBG gapped higher last week on its earnings result, reaching the early February high on the move. It peeled back a bit Thursday through Monday on lower, and lower trade. Monday's volume was barely measurable. An overstatement, but the point is no sellers as it fades back from this test. Nice 13 week base has set up, ready to break higher and send CBG to a new all-time high. Very nice pattern.
Volume: 1.783M Avg Volume: 2.085M
BUY POINT: $38.32 Volume=3.2M Target=$44.32 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: CBG IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbg.html
Play Date: 04/30/2007
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$47.92; +0.52; no options): Wholesale industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing, still holding the 18 day EMA (46.80) on low volume as DXPE sets up for the continued run higher. To recap: DXPE gapped out of a 12 month cup with handle base in late April, rallying to 54 on the move. It is testing, holding near support as it does. Nice low volume, refusing to give up much of the gain. Has been flirting with the continued break higher, just has yet to show the volume. When it does it is a buy.
Volume: 82.229K Avg Volume: 192.321K
BUY POINT: $49.05 Volume=322K Target=$56.45 Stop=$45.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option change)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxpe.html
Play Date: 05/10/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$41.91; -0.42; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA as FLIR sets up to continue its breakout run. Looks great. Just add the bounce higher. To recap: FLIR broke out from a big rangy double bottom with handle in February, then formed a quick 5 week cup through March. It broke out and ran up to 44 on the move, making us some nice gain along the way. It is now testing that breakout fading back to the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday low before rebounding, and then posting a modest loss in the Thursday selling that closed it over the 10 day EMA (42.04). Looking for a hold in this 10 or 18 day EMA (41) range and then a resumption of the move when the market pullback is over.
Volume: 959.788K Avg Volume: 627.506K
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$49.50 Stop=$40.98
POSITION: FFQ GH - July $40c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flir.html
Play Date: 05/09/2007
HAL (Halliburton--$33.56; +0.75; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice break higher Friday, but volume was still not there. Looking for a bit more trade as HAL continues the move; that is our buy point. To recap: HAL is in a 13 month base, approaching the November/December 2006 high that marks the hump in the pattern. Somewhat ragged but definitely showing some better volume the past three weeks. Good trade Wednesday as it jumped up off the 50 day EMA and cleared the early April highs. Good enough action to move in as it continues the move higher. After a long base and spinning off the unit that brought all of the negative publicity in the Iraq war, HAL looks to be back in the game.
Volume: 18.384M Avg Volume: 23.711M
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=30M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.04
POSITION: HAL JS - Oct. $32.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hal.html
Play Date: 05/10/2007
NVEC (NVE Corp.--$33.73; -0.66; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume fade toward the 10 day EMA (32.85) as NVEC continues the work on its handle. Ready to move after this test sets up the handle. To recap: NVEC gapped higher on earnings, forming the right side of its 6 month cup base that formed roughly using the 200 day SMA as support. After that blast higher it has worked laterally the past three sessions on lower volume, working on the handle. Really like how it is holding its gains even in the market selling on Thursday. Excellent money flow is holding up very well. NVEC made us some good money in 2006, and this base is setting it up to make us more money. High volume on the break higher is what we want to see.
Volume: 168.682K Avg Volume: 256.83K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=400K Target=$43.45 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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