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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BIDU; HAL; HNP; IGLD; PTNR; AEO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/14/2007
ORB (Orbital Sciences--$20.55; -0.08; optionable): Small rockets, space systems for commercial, military, civil government customers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orb.html
EARNINGS: 4-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong breakout from its 7.5 month base to end April, gathering strength as the month ended. It then tested the move the past two weeks, coming back to near support on lower volume, showing some high volume as it tried to bounce off that level. Excellent pullback from an excellent breakout. Looking for the continuation of the breakout with some rising volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 525.7K Avg Volume: 658.15K
BUY POINT: $20.86 Volume=900K Target=$25.00 Stop=$20.18
POSITION: ORB ID - Sept. $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/orb.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
SGR (Shaw Group--$34.93; -0.27; optionable): Engineering, construction, and maintenance services to energy, environmental, and other markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-10-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume and a strong break higher Wednesday as SGR moved out of its 13 week double bottom with handle base. The move took SGR to the early 2006 high in a much larger reverse head and shoulders base. The current base is the right shoulder to that larger pattern. Thus a break higher from here takes it over important resistance and clears the way form strong gains. Nice volume on the break higher, nice low volume on the test as it works laterally, refusing to give back its upside.
Volume: 398.3K Avg Volume: 746.144K
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=1M Target=$41.65 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: SGR JG - Oct. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgr.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$43.71; +0.44; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SWN is moving in a 7 week pennant, consolidating the early break higher from a 17 week base. It rallied to 45 on the move and then started the current test, holding the breakout point at 42 as it does. Volume backed off the past week after kicking up to start the month after the earnings report. Looking for it to break higher on some stronger volume to give us the buy point. Nice solid leader in position to make the break higher.
Volume: 1.685M Avg Volume: 2.023M
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=2.4M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.54
POSITION: SWN IH - Sept. $40c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/swn.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$39.53; +0.18; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Ascending base. We were watching this pattern form over the past 8 weeks, consolidating the strong February and March run that made us some very nice coin. It is moving laterally at the 18 day EMA (38.72) on very low volume in a nice, tight range. It is almost the same pattern it showed December to February that led to that strong run, just a bit shorter. Nice low volume to test while the strongest sessions the past three weeks were on upside days. Looks as if some nice consolidation is ongoing. Just waiting for it to show higher volume as it breaks to the upside as it did in February.
Volume: 445.2K Avg Volume: 783.8K
BUY POINT: $40.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$48.22 Stop=$37.57
POSITION: WNR IH - Sept. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wnr.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
XLNX (Xilinx--$30.01; +0.06; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. XLNX gapped higher the day following earnings, but that move was the culmination of a run higher the prior two sessions in anticipation of the results. Thus it broke out from its 21 week base the day ahead of earnings and it did not have a lot more room on the upside on that news. It has since slipped into a lateral consolidation, refusing to give back the gains, instead holding up as the 10 day EMA (29.67) rose to meet it. Really like when a move refuses to give up those gains as that indicates no holders want to sell it. Monday volume was up and above average as XLNX probed higher, moving pas the highs in its lateral move on the session high. That bump in volume indicates it is ready to break higher. Have to see the move before we move in, however.
Volume: 7.683M Avg Volume: 7.454M
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=9.4M Target=$36.50 Stop=$29.18
POSITION: XLQ IF - Sept. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xlnx.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/07/2007
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$37.17; -0.29; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on that nice handle, holding at the 10 day EMA (36.98) on low volume. Looks great. Now we need a great looking breakout. To recap: CBG gapped higher last week on its earnings result, reaching the early February high on the move. It peeled back a bit Thursday through Monday on lower, and lower trade. Monday's volume was barely measurable. An overstatement, but the point is no sellers as it fades back from this test. Nice 13 week base has set up, ready to break higher and send CBG to a new all-time high. Very nice pattern.
Volume: 1.911M Avg Volume: 2.085M
BUY POINT: $38.32 Volume=3.2M Target=$44.32 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: CBG IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbg.html
Play Date: 05/02/2007
CEPH (Cephalon--$80.00; +0.52; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. CEPH tested the 18 day EMA to end last week, held, and then bounced higher Monday. Volume was not there yet, but like what it is showing as that looks like a shakeout to clear out the last sellers after the gap higher that broke it out of its 5 month base.
Volume: 967.866K Avg Volume: 1.634M
BUY POINT: $80.66 Volume=2.2M Target=$92.85 Stop=$77.78
POSITION: CQE HP - Aug. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceph.html
Play Date: 05/10/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$41.60; -0.31; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Tried the move Monday on some solid, above average volume. It could not hold the move to the close, actually closing lower on the session. Still above the 18 day EMA (41.18) and still set to make the breakout. To recap: FLIR broke out from a big rangy double bottom with handle in February, then formed a quick 5 week cup through March. It broke out and ran up to 44 on the move, making us some nice gain along the way. It is now testing that breakout fading back to the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday low before rebounding, and then posting a modest loss in the Thursday selling that closed it over the 10 day EMA (42.04). Looking for a hold in this 10 or 18 day EMA (41) range and then a resumption of the move when the market pullback is over.
Volume: 992.621K Avg Volume: 627.506K
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$49.50 Stop=$40.98
POSITION: FFQ GH - July $40c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flir.html
Play Date: 05/05/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$21.99; -0.01; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Extraordinarily tight range the past two sessions on very low volume as HMSY holds the 18 day EMA (21.88), making a higher low in its 11 week base. Nice pattern making higher lows up the 50 day EMA (21.31) as it compresses below a constant top just below 23. A higher low at this near support typically precedes the breakout. Made us a good bit of money in January and February on its prior run, and this pattern certainly looks ready to yield another run higher.
Volume: 73.956K Avg Volume: 213.606K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=275K Target=$26.57 Stop=$21.28
POSITION: QHT IX - Sept. $22.50c (51 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$42.10; -1.10; optionable): Chinese online games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Could not extend the Friday break higher, instead fading back to the 10 day EMA (41.79), holding that support with a hammer doji. Volume was running average again. Still set up nicely for the break higher. To recap: Looking at NCTY again as it has set up once more and is trying to make the next break higher. NCTY jumped out of a 10 week base in early April, gapping higher on serious volume. It got away from us on that gap, and we kept watching to see if it would test. It has, but it has refused to give up any ground in the test, instead moving laterally at roughly 42, consolidating the gains as it held them as well. Friday volume moved up to average as NCTY jumped higher with most of the Chinese stocks. Want to see some more trade as it makes the rest of the break higher, but it is looking very good and is the leader in its sector.
Volume: 295.542K Avg Volume: 384.073K
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=475K Target=$50.00 Stop=$40.98
POSITION: NQT IH - Sept. $40c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncty.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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