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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CROX; DO; PTNR; SAF
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/15/2007
SKS (Saks Holdings--$22.31; +0.05; optionable): High end (some say luxury) department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sks.html
EARNINGS: 5-21-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SKS broke higher from a 6 month ascending triangle in early May, running to 23 on the breakout move. It has come back to test the 10 day EMA (21.98) this week, not willing to give up much of its move and holding well above the breakout point at 21. This was one we saw the pattern set up and then watched it breakout. Cannot make a lot of money doing that, but the beauty of a strong stock is that it comes back to test, and that initial test is a great place to move in and pick up the positions. Looking for SKS to hold in this range and then break higher on good volume to give us the buy. The earnings are next Monday, but we still like what we see in this pattern.
Volume: 2.588M Avg Volume: 2.366M
BUY POINT: $22.72 Volume=3.5M Target=$27.32 Stop=$21.72
POSITION: SKS HX - Aug. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sks.html
Play Date: 05/15/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$75.51; +0.77; optionable): Oil and gas service company (well logs)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: 4-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Calling this a test of the 50 day EMA (71.82) but SLB is not doing much more than wave at that level the past few weeks as it holds the May high where the base started. It broke out from this 11 month base in April and rallied on into its earnings. After that run it sold off on the earnings and started the current 5 week lateral move to test. Like how it has held onto the gains and the breakout. Tuesday volume jumped up toward average as SLB jumped higher as well though it closed off its intraday high. Like the action and looking for SLB to log a nice continuation of the breakout.
Volume: 8.312M Avg Volume: 9.154M
BUY POINT: $76.22 Volume=10M Target=$87.75 Stop=$74.08
POSITION: SLB HO - Aug. $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slb.html
Play Date: 05/15/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$38.11; -0.57; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. TIE is showing some good upside volume the past week as it broke higher from a 12 week double bottom that looks to be the tail end of a larger 13 month cup base. Some explosive moves as it cleared the 'hump' at 37.65; nice price and nice volume moves. It spent Monday and Tuesday testing back and on lower volume. May have some more to come back (a hump test?) before it is ready to continue, forming something of a handle to the double bottom, but the moves upside were explosive so we want to be ready to get into some titanium.
Volume: 2.537M Avg Volume: 2.453M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$46.38 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: TIE IG - Sept. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tie.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/15/2007
TLB (Talbots--$19.58; -0.25; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlb.html
EARNINGS: 5-23-07
STATUS: Put. Earnings are out next week, but TLB does not look to be in the mood to move higher into them. It collapsed from a 2 month lateral move to start the month, then tried to consolidate the past week, but simply had no strength following the same store sales numbers. Monday TLB made a weak attempt at the 10 day EMA (20.73) but was quickly undermined. Tuesday it was heading back down on rising, above average volume. Looking to move in as it continues its massive weakness. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.008M Avg Volume: 756.136K
BUY POINT: $19.47 Volume=950K Target=$18.00 Stop=$20.04
POSITION: TLB RD - June $20p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tlb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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