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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin Part 3 of 3
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/casy.html
ULTE (Ultimate Electronics--$30.87; -0.29; no options): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulte.html
STATUS: A base within a larger (16-month) base, the smaller one almost 7 months long, and nearly looking like a reverse head and shoulders except the right shoulder never really developed a proper dip. So, we are calling this a cup with handle and ULTE is now trying to move up in the handle after catching support just above 28. Volume spiked up Wednesday to propel the stock over the 18 day MVA, above which the stock held Friday as volume continued to sink to very low levels (16,700; avg. 109,000). Will watch for a breakout over the January highs on strong volume. Money flow is ahead of price. Target: 39. Received a "strong buy" rating by Dougherty & Co. (news out Friday morning) but that didn't have much effect on the stock movement.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 32.44 on volume of 164,000 or higher. Stop: 30.17 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ulte.html
DLTR (Dollar Tree Stores--$32.78; +3.72; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Breaking out of a cup with handle base on huge volume (6.3 million; avg. 1.13 million) after strong earnings reported the previous day. The 25-week cup with handle is part of a larger 19-month base with highs at 48, but our target on this move is lower for now at 38. Buy point was 31.97. Money flow shot higher, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price. After such a strong move we will most likely get a bit of a pullback, and that will give us a better entry point when it starts back up, probably on Tuesday.
BUY POINT: From here on continued strong volume, but can get a pullback to 32 or so after such a strong move Friday; that would be our preferred entry. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 33.60 (5% above buy point). Stop: 30.50 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March $30 calls to buy (DQI CF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dltr.html
ECL (Ecolab--$41.93; +0.88; optionable): Consumer Non-durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Gotta keep things clean. In a year-long base with a closing high at 44.69. The base except for the September slash lower is more or less of a flat or saucer type. More importantly for recent developments, ECL broke out on a nice run over its 200 day MVA just after mid-December and topped at the handle high of a 20-week cup with handle, the base of which has tested the 200 day MVA on its pullback. Friday ECL popped over the handle high at 41.36 after gaining new support at the 10 day MVA, after bouncing from the combined 50 day and 200 day MVAs (the two crossed over Tuesday for another bullish development). Remains a buy on the move; volume was up to 669,300 (avg. 407,000).
Money flow and relative strength surging. Target: 50
BUY POINT: 41.95 on continued strong volume. Stop: 39.01 (7%). A buy on breakout up to 43.53.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (ECL DG; 0 open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
STT (State Street--$54.71; +0.12; optionable): Regional Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Sticking with those financials. A 33-week reverse head and shoulders pattern inside a bigger 14-month base. Currently is pulling back in a handle that formed after STT completed the right shoulder to the base, holding support at the 18 day MVA (54.32) and throwing a volume spike Friday to the tune of 1.95 million (avg. 1.1 million). Looking for a strong move up from here and breakout over the January high at 56.70. Strong money flow, high relative strength. Target: 68
BUY POINT: 56.80 on volume of 1.7 million or higher. Stop: 52.82 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $50 calls to buy (STT EJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stt.html
Trades on less than 100,000 average daily volume:
GRTS (Gart Sports--$22.99; +1.39; no options): Specialty Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grts.html
STATUS: Broke out of a double bottom in late November, immediately formed an ascending wedge and broke from that pattern, then turned suddenly volatile. It tested back to the 50 day MVA (now just above 20) and got some strong institutional support at that level on January 18 when the company said it expected to beat analysts' quarterly earnings estimates for the fourth quarter ending in January. From there it formed a quick handle, pulling back nicely on steadily decreasing volume until Friday when the stock shot off the 18 day MVA on sharply rising volume (94,300; avg. 55,272). Looking ready for a breakout over the January high (22.99). Target: 28. Strong money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: 23.09 on volume of 83,000 or better. Stop: 21.47 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grts.html
IRM (Iron Mountain--$31.50; +0.04; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: IRM broke from a 5-month flat base in early December but pulled back too drastically in the test though it snapped back from the 50 day MVA to hold the 18 day MVA 2 weeks before moving back up. That is what happened early in January when IRM broke out of a little cup formed at the test, and now it is back at the 18 day MVA, testing this new breakout. Volume fell off throughout the pullback, but Friday was up sharply again (302,000; avg. 198,000); the stock was showing its second consecutive doji at the support, Friday's a hammer doji with a long wick. Coming at the base of the pullback, looks like IRM is ready to move up, and the strong volume is encouraging. Good money flow and decent buying. Target: 38
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 31.75 on continued strong volume. Stop: 29.43 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March $30 calls to buy (IRM CF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/irm.html
SY (Sybase--$18.00; +1.19; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html
STATUS: SY is more recently off the lows in an 8-month v-bottomed base within a year-long developing cup (within a larger base). Within the shortest base, SY cleared the 200 day MVA in early December then made 2 bounces from the 50 day MVA, the most recent coming Wednesday on rising volume. Things really got going Friday when the company reported earnings that beat forecasts and volume flew to 1.5 million (avg. 484,000). SY gapped up on the strong move, just clearing the January high at 17.95 but closing at 18, resistance hit three times at the May high (start of the v-shaped base). SY is attempting to move into the upper right side of the year-long cup and has already moved 3 days from the 50 day MVA, but on a break of resistance looks ready to explode higher. Strong money flow, good buying, and relative strength breaking out. Initial target: 22
BUY POINT: Breakout: 18.10 on continued strong volume. Stop: 16.83 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $15 calls to buy (SY CC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sy.html
Small Stock:
BRLI (Bio-Reference Labs--$7.45; +0.31; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brli.html
STATUS: BRLI formed an 8-week cup since November after breaking out from another slightly bigger cup with handle mid-month. It pulled back the last three days to hold the 10 day MVA (7.02). Earnings were out early Thursday; though the numbers were good BRLI tried to sell back. Instead it managed to hold the 10 day and Friday was up from that support with volume still strong though down a bit to 284,100 (avg. 177,045) in this handle-type consolidation. Because of the high volume BRLI would do well to pull back toward the 10 again and make a smoother handle. It may now, however. Good money flow and buying. Target: 10
BUY POINT: Breakout: 7.95 on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 266,000). Stop: 7.39 (7%)
BUY POINT: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brli.html
Puts:
VIA (Viacom--$39.60; -0.15; optionable): Media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/via.html
STATUS: Broke below the 50 day MVA just over a week ago (currently that moving average is at 42.50), after falling through the 200 day MVA earlier this month. The stock fell and held at the 38.30 level, and has tried the last 2 days to mount a move back up to test the recent breakdown. Volume was strong Friday but after tapping the 10 day MVA at 41 VIA closed back down with a doji for the slight loss (759,500; avg. 460,000). It is showing definite weakness, and on a move below 38.30 we will be looking at puts, targeting the October lows at 32.50. May have potential support at 37.40 near the October highs, so will want to see selling pick up intensity on the move down.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 39 on continued strong volume. Break of support: 37 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: March $45 puts to buy (VIA OI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/via.html
NDC (Ndchealth--$32.04; -1.20; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ndc.html
STATUS: High volume move below the 200 day MVA (32.70) after opening just below the 50 day MVA (33.35). No news but the stock hit its down trendline Wednesday and fell back from there, breaking the 50 day on Thursday (NDC has been trending lower since mid-October). Look for a continued drop, to our target at 29; the December closing low is at 28.29.
BUY POINT: 32 on continued strong volume (up to 277,500 by Friday; avg. 214,000).
POSITION: March or May $40 puts to buy (NDC OH or NDC QH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ndc.html
JPM (J.P. Morgan Chase--$34.99; -0.91; optionable): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: After breaking below the 50 day MVA 9 days ago, the stock continues to fall back from its 10 day MVA (36.29), doing that again Friday as volume shot well above average to 13.9 million (avg. 7.9 million). The stock made a new closing low for the month on that move, and also left behind the November and December lows. It looks headed for the September low at 29, our target.
BUY POINT: 34.50 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: March $40 puts to buy (JPM OH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
CONTINUED PLAYS:
MOVING AVERAGE BOUNCES:
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
STK (Storage Tech--$22.25; +0.56; optionable): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Still in the ascending wedge and Friday holding above the 18 day MVA (21.94) on continued decreasing volume of 436,200 (avg. 797,000). The 50 day MVA is at 20.96 but it is the 50 day MVA simple that is supporting the lows in the pattern (21.46). Continue to look for a breakout over resistance at 23.50. Strong money flow and high relative strength. Target: 28
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 22.50 on average or higher volume. Stop: 20.46 (7%). Breakout: 23.60 on volume of 1.1 million or higher. Stop: 21.95 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March $20 calls to buy (STK CD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stk.html
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
FITB (Fifth Third Banc--$62.46; +0.06; optionable): Regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Hit the buy point of 63.05 on the breakout from the double bottom with handle and moved to a high of 63.65 Thursday, but volume on Friday was unsupportive and the stock could not manage a strong follow-up to the move (back down to 1.58 million; avg. 1.4 million). Unless volume surges back up Monday, FITB is likely to pull back to support again (in the range of the buy point). Remains a buy on the breakout up to 66.20 on the breakout. Target: 76. Strong money flow.
BUY POINT: Riding current positions on the breakout. On a pullback to test the 63 range: Aggressive: 63.17 on volume in the range of 2 million. Stop: 58.75 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $55 or $60 calls to buy (FTQ EK or EL). Please check with your broker for deltas.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fitb.html
MOGN (Mgi Pharm--$16.41; -0.21; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: In a 2-year base but more recently in a cup with handle that formed after the breakout over the 200 day MVA. MOGN made a good move off the 10 day MVA, up in the handle, Thursday with volume rising but struggled Friday as volume ripped up to 323,500 (avg. 134,000). Showing a tight doji on the pullback (a star) and a tap at the 10 day MVA, we will look for the stock to hold for another attempt at breakout. Showing excellent money flow and high relative strength. Target: 21
BUY POINT: 17.15 on volume of 201,000 or higher. Stop: 15.95 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $12.50 calls to buy (QOG DV; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mogn.html
Continued Puts:
JEC (Jacobs Engineering 63.63; -0.38; optionable): Materials & Construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Hit the buy point (62.40) Tuesday but continues to hang out (a bit higher) at the 18 day MVA, above which JEC closed the last 2 days of the week. Volume was stronger Friday (204,800; avg. 246,000) and if the stock breaks below 62.50 again, we will again look for the move down to the January low at 58.41. The stock dropped to that level when it broke the 200 day MVA earlier this month, and tapped at that resistance Friday on the intraday high of 64.79.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 62.40 on strong and rising volume.
POSITION: April $75 puts to buy (JEC PO).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
stock recommendation
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