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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: GVA; HAL; HTGR; PTRN; TZOO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$83.99; +2.15; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Breakout test. GILD is working laterally over the 18 day EMA (82.02) for the past 4 weeks, consolidating the break higher on the earnings and split announcement. It got a bit of mileage out of the news but then started this lateral move. Good volume the past two sessions as GILD showed a doji on the 18 day EMA and then jumped higher Wednesday. This is the second consolidation since the February breakout from a larger 14 week base, and the last one was identical and yielded a nice 12 point rally. Looking for something similar here as GILD starts breaking higher.
Volume: 4.546M Avg Volume: 4.354M
BUY POINT: $84.38 Volume=6.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$81.89
POSITION: GDQ HQ - Aug. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$152.04; +3.85; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Breakout test. After a 6 month trading range including a mid-April gap lower, RIMM finally got a fire lit under it. It broke sharply higher last week on very strong trade and then tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (147) as it rose to meet it. Started to bounce Wednesday but needs some volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 5.374M Avg Volume: 6.591M
BUY POINT: $153.42 Volume=9M Target=$179.95 Stop=$146.55
POSITION: RFY IK - Sept. $155c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$35.23; +1.48; optionable): Telecom networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. NTGR gapped higher on earnings to end April, giving us a nice gain on our current position. It has moved laterally for three weeks, waiting for the short term moving averages to catch up with it. Volume jumped Monday and Wednesday as NTGR posted upside gains with a particularly nice volume on the Wednesday gain. Great 14 week cup with handle base set up the breakout, and this first test is where we want to move in once more. A leader even if it is tech.
Volume: 1.17M Avg Volume: 710.923K
BUY POINT: $35.75 Volume=1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.33
POSITION: TUD IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ntgr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
NYX (NYSE Euronext--$81.52; +1.97; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Put. In a head and shoulders pattern over the past 10 weeks, NYX started a sharp break lower Wednesday after a failed attempt to move back up through the 200 day SMA (84.02) after breaking below that level to start the month. It rebounded Wednesday on lower, below average volume following that strong volume break lower below 80. Looking for it to roll back over and resume the selling. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 4.979M Avg Volume: 5.981M
BUY POINT: $80.55 Volume=6M Target=$77.25 Stop=$81.32
POSITION: NYX RP - June $80p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nyx.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RYAAY (Ryanair regional airlines--$42.37; -0.05; optionable): Regional airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryaay.html
EARNINGS: 6-5-07
STATUS: Double top. RYAAY had a heck of a flight in late 2006, peaking in February. It made another run higher into late April, reaching the prior highs but volume was a wisp of that at the prior high. It collapsed to start May, falling through the 90 day MA and 50 day EMA. It bounced off 40 and made it back to the 10 day EMA (42.85). It gapped lower Wednesday but recovered on strong volume, tapping the 10 day EMA on the high. Looking for it to roll back over and follow the money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.753M Avg Volume: 797.868K
BUY POINT: $42.07 Volume=100K Target=$40.05 Stop=$42.94
POSITION: QRX RV - June $42.50p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ryaay.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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