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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CAN; HAL; NTGR; PTNR; TZOO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
CFC (Countrywide Financial--$40.33; +0.82; optionable): Mortgage financing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Yes the mortgage and housing industry is still in the throes of its downturn, but often when things seem darkest stocks start to move. Remember back in late 2002 and early 2003? It seemed as if things could not get worse yet stocks were forming bases and preparing for the breakouts (TSCO and EBAY are two early leaders that come to mind that we rode up for big gains). Well, CFC may not be ready to embark upon such an impressive run, but it is set up nicely to break higher and give us a good trade if nothing else. Good low volume handle is forming the past week to its 14 week base, fading to and holding the 10 day EMA (39.65) Tuesday. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as it pulls back in this handle. Looking for a strong break higher to follow that money flow to give us the entry into the trade.
Volume: 6.476M Avg Volume: 11.134M
BUY POINT: $40.68 Volume=12M Target=$46.95 Stop=$38.95
POSITION: CFC FH - July $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cfc.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
OMCL (Omnicell--$22.16; +0.57; optionable): Medication control and patient safety services for acute care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA/breakout. OMCL surged out of a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base on its earnings announce, running up to near 25 on the move. That took it to a new all-time high. It then faded back this month, holding the breakout and also the key 50 day EMA (21.56) as it did. Volume jumped up above average Wednesday for the first time this month, and it coincided with a jump off the 50 day EMA. Money flow held fast during the test. Looking for OMCL to move back through the 10 and 18 day EMA (22.35) on continued strong volume to show us the buyers are back in and wanting more.
Volume: 411.348K Avg Volume: 324.4K
BUY POINT: $22.55 Volume=487K Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.31
POSITION: UMK HX - Aug. $22.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$152.04; +3.85; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Breakout test. After a 6 month trading range including a mid-April gap lower, RIMM finally got a fire lit under it. It broke sharply higher last week on very strong trade and then tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (147) as it rose to meet it. Started to bounce Wednesday but needs some volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 5.374M Avg Volume: 6.591M
BUY POINT: $153.42 Volume=9M Target=$179.95 Stop=$146.55
POSITION: RFY IK - Sept. $155c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rimm.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$35.23; +1.48; optionable): Telecom networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. NTGR gapped higher on earnings to end April, giving us a nice gain on our current position. It has moved laterally for three weeks, waiting for the short term moving averages to catch up with it. Volume jumped Monday and Wednesday as NTGR posted upside gains with a particularly nice volume on the Wednesday gain. Great 14 week cup with handle base set up the breakout, and this first test is where we want to move in once more. A leader even if it is tech.
Volume: 1.17M Avg Volume: 710.923K
BUY POINT: $35.75 Volume=1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.33
POSITION: TUD IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
NYX (NYSE Euronext--$81.52; +1.97; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Put. In a head and shoulders pattern over the past 10 weeks, NYX started a sharp break lower Wednesday after a failed attempt to move back up through the 200 day SMA (84.02) after breaking below that level to start the month. It rebounded Wednesday on lower, below average volume following that strong volume break lower below 80. Looking for it to roll back over and resume the selling. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 4.979M Avg Volume: 5.981M
BUY POINT: $80.55 Volume=6M Target=$77.25 Stop=$81.32
POSITION: NYX RP - June $80p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nyx.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RYAAY (Ryanair regional airlines--$42.37; -0.05; optionable): Regional airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryaay.html
EARNINGS: 6-5-07
STATUS: Double top. RYAAY had a heck of a flight in late 2006, peaking in February. It made another run higher into late April, reaching the prior highs but volume was a wisp of that at the prior high. It collapsed to start May, falling through the 90 day MA and 50 day EMA. It bounced off 40 and made it back to the 10 day EMA (42.85). It gapped lower Wednesday but recovered on strong volume, tapping the 10 day EMA on the high. Looking for it to roll back over and follow the money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.753M Avg Volume: 797.868K
BUY POINT: $42.07 Volume=100K Target=$40.05 Stop=$42.94
POSITION: QRX RV - June $42.50p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ryaay.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/02/2007
CEPH (Cephalon--$80.14; +0.48; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice tight doji over the 10 day EMA (79.66) Wednesday, making a higher low at that near support. Like the doji and the higher low; that often precedes the breakout. To recap: CEPH tested the 18 day EMA to end last week, held, and then bounced higher Monday. Volume was not there yet, but like what it is showing as that looks like a shakeout to clear out the last sellers after the gap higher that broke it out of its 5 month base.
Volume: 1.119M Avg Volume: 1.537M
BUY POINT: $80.66 Volume=2.2M Target=$92.85 Stop=$77.78
POSITION: CQE HP - Aug. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceph.html
Play Date: 05/09/2007
CLB (Core Labs--$92.77; -0.03; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji with tail Wednesday as CLB reached lower on low volume and rebounded to hold the 18 day EMA. Very nice handle to the 23 week base that is setting up a breakout to a new all-time high. Just have to be patient and let it show the break higher.
Volume: 156K Avg Volume: 273.397K
BUY POINT: $95.55 Volume=450K Target=$106.75 Stop=$92.11
POSITION: CLB IS - Sept. $95c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clb.html
Play Date: 05/10/2007
NVEC (NVE Corp.--$32.69; -0.11; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NVEC is still testing that early May gap higher on earnings that completed the right side of its 7 month base. Nice low volume test the past two weeks, holding above the 18 day EMA (31.77) this week on some very low volume Wednesday. Money flow has held up as it has made the test. That low volume looks like the quiet before the storm before NVEC breaks higher.
Volume: 90.444K Avg Volume: 261.532K
BUY POINT: $35.05 Volume=400K Target=$42.65 Stop=$32.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvec.html
Play Date: 05/15/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$37.62; -0.49; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Continuing the test, tapping the 10 day EMA (37.03) on the Wednesday low and rebounding to cut the losses. Low, below average volume. Nice test of the 'hump' in the pattern and it now looks ready to show the breakout. To recap: TIE is showing some good upside volume the past week as it broke higher from a 12 week double bottom that looks to be the tail end of a larger 13 month cup base. Some explosive moves as it cleared the 'hump' at 37.65; nice price and nice volume moves. It spent Monday and Tuesday testing back and on lower volume. May have some more to come back (a hump test?) before it is ready to continue, forming something of a handle to the double bottom, but the moves upside were explosive so we want to be ready to get into some titanium.
Volume: 1.987M Avg Volume: 2.448M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$46.38 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: TIE IG - Sept. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tie.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/09/2007
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$64.25; -0.56; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Put. After holding just below the 10 day EMA (64.96) for two weeks, EXBD started lower Wednesday on rising though still below average volume. That is the first volume increase in a week so we are watching it closely in the event it turns lower here and starts the next leg lower. To recap: EXBD has made two big gaps lower in its downtrend that started a year ago. Its most recent gap lower was on earnings that did not pass muster. It rebounded from that gap but found resistance at the 10 day EMA. That stopped the rebound, bending the price down below that near resistance. It has not broken lower, but a stock will often have 3 gaps lower in a downtrend before the downtrend bottoms. Looking for EXBD to fail at the 10 day and fall through the Tuesday closing low (64.26) on some good volume. That will indicate the next down leg is underway. A move to our initial target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 710.959K Avg Volume: 695.981K
BUY POINT: $64.22 Volume=775K Target=$62.00 Stop=$64.78
POSITION: EBU RM - June $65p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exbd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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