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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BA; COG; CSX; DNR; DO; ESV; HAL; NE; RIG; SLB; SU; SWN
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/17/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$55.08; -0.65; optionable): Simulation software for aerospace, automotive, manufacturing, electronics, etc. design. Splits 2:1 on 6-5-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice easy handle is forming the past week as ANSS fades to the 10 day EMA (54.89) the pat three sessions, holding that near support as it shakes out some easy sellers. Nice action in its 12 week base that is part of a larger 13 month base. Nice set up for a good old fashioned breakout.
Volume: 288.538K Avg Volume: 346.182K
BUY POINT: $56.68 Volume=520K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.45
POSITION: QUS JK - Oct. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Leader:
Play Date: 05/17/2007
AMT (American Tower--$40.65; -0.09; optionable): Cell towers and infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. AMT looks as if it is starting to form a handle to its 12 week pattern after a strong price and volume break higher the past week. It faded back Thursday on below average volume. May take a few days to form the handle, but it was explosive on the last move higher, and we need to be ready to move in if it starts back up from here.
Volume: 2.643M Avg Volume: 2.565M
BUY POINT: $41.21 Volume=3M Target=$47.50 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: AMT JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Play Date: 05/17/2007
PXP (Plains Exploration & Production--$48.81; +0.64; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pxp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Rolling. PXP has bounced up and down in a 22 week trading range between 43 and 49. It bounced back up to end April and tried the breakout of the range in early May. That move failed, but PXP did not roll back down to the prior lows. Instead it checked up at the 18 day EMA (47.86), working laterally the past two weeks. Often a higher low such as this sets the breakout move.
Volume: 748.5K Avg Volume: 1.225M
BUY POINT: $49.68 Volume=1.8M Target=$57.21 Stop=$47.65
POSITION: PXP HJ - Aug. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pxp.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ANF: Looking at 5-23-07. Nice doji at the 50 day EMA may set up a new break higher.
BA: Nice breakout move to start the play!
BDX: No split announced 4-25-07. Struggling to hold the 50 day SMA as volume spikes.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
BLUD: Researching next date
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07
CHTT: Researching the date
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching a new date.
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Researching the date
COLM: Earnings 4-26-07. Not giving us the announcement but still setting up nicely here.
CTRP: Forecast 5-16-07. No split announcement but a big move on earnings.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07. Coming back to test after the gap higher on the same store sales.
DVN: Researching date.
EXC: No announcement on 4-25-07. Still testing some support at 76.
FOSL: Forecast 5-16-07. No split announcement with the earnings.
GVA: Researching date
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date.
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Still in the uptrend but no split in sight.
OSK: Earnings 5-3-07. Testing the break back from the strong breakout move.
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07. Researching date.
RIMM: Early June
SSYS: Earnings 4-26-07. No split yet but a nice test of the 10 day EMA.
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
YUM: Finally announced its split
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/17/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$56.38; +0.85; optionable): Independent oil and gas
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split on 2-16-05 at $39.10
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Cup. XTO is forming a short 6 week cup over the 50 day EMA (54.48) as it consolidates the breakout run from a similar but much lower 13 month base. Very nice action as it works laterally over this key support, setting up the breakout move. Nice.
Volume: 3.02M Avg Volume: 3.253M
BUY POINT: $56.88 Volume=4.5M Target=$65.50 Stop=$54.32
POSITION: XTO HK - Aug. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$151.86; -0.18; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji Thursday on low volume as RIMM continues its lateral move over the 10 day EMA. Holding the break higher and set up very nicely. To recap: After a 6 month trading range including a mid-April gap lower, RIMM finally got a fire lit under it. It broke sharply higher last week on very strong trade and then tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (147) as it rose to meet it. Started to bounce Wednesday but needs some volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 4.313M Avg Volume: 6.591M
BUY POINT: $153.42 Volume=9M Target=$179.95 Stop=$146.55
POSITION: RFY IK - Sept. $155c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$62.05; +0.85; optionable): Independent oil and gas
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-9-05 at $51.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Reached down to the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday and Thursday lows and rebounding. Good shakeout action with volume jumping back above average Thursday as UPL rebounded for a gain. Perched on the cusp of the next break higher in the breakout. To recap: Strong break higher to start May as UPL rallied on strong earnings. It then tested laterally the past 2 weeks, coming back to tap and test the 10 day EMA (60.93), holding that as support. Beautiful textbook pattern, good earnings in the book, and set up to move higher. Looking for more trade as UPL shows us some ultra moves. You throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. Looks as if UPL is in that kind of a groove.
Volume: 1.241M Avg Volume: 954.619K
BUY POINT: $63.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$73.95 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: UPL IL - Sept. $60c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$82.93; -1.06; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the move Thursday but backed off quickly. Volume was a bit higher but still below average. Money flow is still moving higher and still looking for GILD to make the next move in the break higher. To recap: GILD is working laterally over the 18 day EMA (82.02) for the past 4 weeks, consolidating the break higher on the earnings and split announcement. It got a bit of mileage out of the news but then started this lateral move. Good volume the past two sessions as GILD showed a doji on the 18 day EMA and then jumped higher Wednesday. This is the second consolidation since the February breakout from a larger 14 week base, and the last one was identical and yielded a nice 12 point rally. Looking for something similar here as GILD starts breaking higher.
Volume: 3.283M Avg Volume: 4.354M
BUY POINT: $84.38 Volume=6.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$81.89
POSITION: GDQ HQ - Aug. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/12/2007
LFC (China Life Insurance--$50.03; -0.73; optionable): Chinese life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Nice low volume as LFC continued its lateral move following the Tuesday jump higher. Nice set up. To recap: LFC formed a great 18 week base using the 50 day EMA as support, a level where the bigger buyers accumulate shares. It bounced up in April and formed the laterally 4 week handle over the 18 day EMA. That set the stage, and when the news high Friday, LFC was in breakout mode, surging higher and above the handle high on the best volume in 4 months. Looking to move in with some positions as it continues the move and then adding on the first successful test.
Volume: 720.98K Avg Volume: 1.241M
BUY POINT: $50.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$58.45 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: LFC JJ - Oct. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cslfc.html
Play Date: 05/15/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$37.39; -0.23; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Very nice doji with tail at the 10 day EMA (37.10) as TIE tested lower one last time and then rebounded to close above the 10 day EMA. Volume remained low as it made the shakeout; no real sellers. Looks primed to make the rebound and continuing that strong move higher. To recap: TIE is showing some good upside volume the past week as it broke higher from a 12 week double bottom that looks to be the tail end of a larger 13 month cup base. Some explosive moves as it cleared the 'hump' at 37.65; nice price and nice volume moves. It spent Monday and Tuesday testing back and on lower volume. May have some more to come back (a hump test?) before it is ready to continue, forming something of a handle to the double bottom, but the moves upside were explosive so we want to be ready to get into some titanium.
Volume: 1.737M Avg Volume: 2.448M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$46.38 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: TIE IG - Sept. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$49.67; -0.33; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the low volume, quiet test of the 18 day EMA (49.08), resting after that strong April run. Looks primed. To recap: VMSI broke out from a 9 month double bottom with handle base in mid-April, and it ran higher after the breakout, moving up to 52. Made us some great money on that run and then backed off. It slid through the 10 day EMA (49.72) on the Thursday close, but it caught itself. Nice test of the breakout and looking for the break higher as VMSI continues its move. It can rally further from here; it has shown similar action in prior runs. Strong fundamentals and an excellent test.
Volume: 257.031K Avg Volume: 389.142K
BUY POINT: $50.21 Volume=500K Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.68
POSITION: UMU IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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