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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALXN; BCSI; BTU; CEPH; EXC; GS; GSF; NVDA; OIH; PTNR; RIG; SU
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/19/2007
CCJ (Cameco--$50.05; -0.54; optionable): Industrial metals and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccj.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-27-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. CCJ broke out from a 12 month base to start April. It rallied a solid 8 points and then moved laterally through the month. Once the 10 and 18 day EMA caught up with it, CCJ jumped higher again in May, rallying up to 52. It has spent the past two weeks working laterally once more as the short term moving averages rise to meet it. This lateral move is even better than the prior one as it is tighter and on very nice, low volume. This is just the second such test since the breakout, and this type of run typically yields 4 to 5 bounces off the 10 or 18 day EMA. CCJ is perched on the 10 day EMA (49.92), ready to make the next run higher. Looking for that volume to kick back up as it does; that is our entry signal to grab onto the next run.
Volume: 2.494M Avg Volume: 2.93M
BUY POINT: $51.25 Volume=3.5M Target=$58.95 Stop=$49.08
POSITION: CCJ IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccj.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
EOG (EOG Resources--$78.47; +1.77; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. EOG is on the verge of the breakout from a 16 month base, rallying on better volume to end last week as it started to crack the buy point Friday. Will need to show even stronger volume as it continues the move higher, showing us that the big money is behind it. Very solid to this point and now it needs to follow through with a strong breakout.
Volume: 2.371M Avg Volume: 2.394M
BUY POINT: $78.82 Volume=3.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$75.32
POSITION: EOG JP - Oct. $80c (49 delta) or EOG G0 - July $75c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eog.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
MCHP (Microchip--$40.64; +0.55; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. MCHP broke out from a 12 month cup with handle base in late April on its earnings numbers, surging over 42 on the first move. It is now testing that break higher, hitting the 18 day EMA (39.97) last week before bouncing higher to end the week with a solid price and volume move. Indeed volume was above average for the first time since the start of the month. Excellent test and it looks as if a solid bounce is starting; that is where we want to move in.
Volume: 2.322M Avg Volume: 2.008M
BUY POINT: $41.44 Volume=2.6M Target=$47.75 Stop=$39.78
POSITION: QMT JH - Oct. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
MR (Mindray Medical Intl.--$27.80; +1.70; optionable): Medical instruments in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. No this is not a mind reading device maker. MR is another relatively new issue, coming public in September 2006. It rallied, broke higher in February, but it could not hold the run, falling back into the current 12 week base. Now it looks set. It broke higher on earnings, forming the right side of the pattern. It then backed off on some profit taking Wednesday and Thursday as volume faded. Friday it blasted higher once more, again on strong trade. We are ready to move in as it continues the run higher. Another stock with excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with its strong technical pattern.
Volume: 1.371M Avg Volume: 706.835K
BUY POINT: $27.95 Volume=750K Target=$33.55 Stop=$25.99
POSITION: MR JE - Oct. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/19/2007
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$44.47; +1.26; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Put. After leading NASDAQ with gains in 2006 AKAM is not doing the same in 2007. It tried to base from February to April, but when earnings disappointed in late Aril it collapsed. It fell through the 200 day SMA and then tried to work laterally this month. It rebounded up to the 10 day EMA (44.22) and failed two weeks back, and last week it rebounded again, gapping higher Friday just over the 10 day EMA on the AQNT takeover; that made anything related to internet commerce excited. We don't expect that will last, however, and when AKAM breaks back below the 10 day EMA we are looking to ride the next leg lower. A move to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 5.641M Avg Volume: 4.819M
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=6M Target=$41.54 Stop=$44.68
POSITION: UMU SI - July $45p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology--$21.61; +0.61; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Double top. SIMO made is some strong cash on the upside with its early 2007 run. Superlative. Then it ran so hard it ran out of road and peaked in March. Rallied again but made a second top as it gapped higher on earnings then suffered a nasty reversal. It broke lower, cracked the 90 day MA (21.73) last week on volume, then rebounded to test that breach on lower volume to end the week. Looking for this test to fail and take SIMO lower again. As it does we will look to capitalize on the downside move. A drop to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 489.076K Avg Volume: 934.176K
BUY POINT: $21.41 Volume=950K Target=$19.72 Stop=$21.88
POSITION: MQI SD - July $22.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simo.html
Downside:
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/30/2007
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$48.27; +1.22; no options): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice action still, holding the 18 day EMA last week as DXPE sets up a second handle in its 13 month base. Low trade on the pullback shows little selling. Looking for that volume to increase as it moves back up.
Volume: 135.398K Avg Volume: 199.727K
BUY POINT: $49.05 Volume=322K Target=$56.45 Stop=$45.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option change)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxpe.html
Play Date: 05/10/2007
NVEC (NVE Corp.--$33.50; -0.02; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Bounced to end last week but no volume to really drive it yet. Excellent consolidation and it is ready to make the next move. A time for some patience. To recap: NVEC is still testing that early May gap higher on earnings that completed the right side of its 7 month base. Nice low volume test the past two weeks, holding above the 18 day EMA (32.12) this week on some very low volume Wednesday. Money flow has held up as it has made the test. That low volume looks like the quiet before the storm before NVEC breaks higher.
Volume: 215.167K Avg Volume: 262.262K
BUY POINT: $35.05 Volume=400K Target=$42.65 Stop=$32.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvec.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$151.55; -0.31; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Finished the week on continued low volume as it tightens up the test of the big break higher two weeks back. Very solid and just waiting for it to show us the break higher. To recap: After a 6 month trading range including a mid-April gap lower, RIMM finally got a fire lit under it. It broke sharply higher last week on very strong trade and then tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (147) as it rose to meet it. Started to bounce Wednesday but needs some volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 4.419M Avg Volume: 6.528M
BUY POINT: $153.42 Volume=9M Target=$179.95 Stop=$146.55
POSITION: RFY IK - Sept. $155c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rimm.html
Play Date: 05/15/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$37.60; +0.21; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Still in the nice test, holding the 10 day EMA on the last week lows. Excellent position and just needs to show the break higher. Love how it rallied earlier and then tested last week as energy came back to life. To recap: TIE is showing some good upside volume the past week as it broke higher from a 12 week double bottom that looks to be the tail end of a larger 13 month cup base. Some explosive moves as it cleared the 'hump' at 37.65; nice price and nice volume moves. It spent Monday and Tuesday testing back and on lower volume. May have some more to come back (a hump test?) before it is ready to continue, forming something of a handle to the double bottom, but the moves upside were explosive so we want to be ready to get into some titanium.
Volume: 1.6M Avg Volume: 2.439M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$46.38 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: TIE IG - Sept. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tie.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$40.12; +0.86; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announce 5-3-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume started higher Friday as WNR started to toy with the breakout. Trade was not enough to push it, however, and it slid back on the close. Looks primed to make the breakout from its 10 week base that consolidated that strong March run that made us some great money. A relatively new player in the sector, WNR is strong.
Volume: 613K Avg Volume: 759.816K
BUY POINT: $40.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$48.22 Stop=$37.57
POSITION: WNR IH - Sept. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wnr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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