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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BA; COG; CSX; DNR; DO; ESV; HAL; NE; RIG; SLB; SU; SWN
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/18/2007
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$37.33; +0.52; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a shakeout early last week, CBG tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close out the week, showing a nice jump in volume off that key support level. Very solid action in its 15 week pattern as CBG sets perched on the cusp of a breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent fundamentals and technical pattern. Looking for volume to remain strong as CBG follows its rising money flow higher. Now conventional wisdom would say that anything real estate would not be a great idea. But the economic data is heading back up, not down, and that means the commercial real estate CBG deals with will continue to be in demand.
Volume: 2.492M Avg Volume: 2.122M
BUY POINT: $38.32 Volume=3.2M Target=$44.32 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: CBG IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbg.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
CCJ (Cameco--$50.05; -0.54; optionable): Industrial metals and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccj.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-27-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. CCJ broke out from a 12 month base to start April. It rallied a solid 8 points and then moved laterally through the month. Once the 10 and 18 day EMA caught up with it, CCJ jumped higher again in May, rallying up to 52. It has spent the past two weeks working laterally once more as the short term moving averages rise to meet it. This lateral move is even better than the prior one as it is tighter and on very nice, low volume. This is just the second such test since the breakout, and this type of run typically yields 4 to 5 bounces off the 10 or 18 day EMA. CCJ is perched on the 10 day EMA (49.92), ready to make the next run higher. Looking for that volume to kick back up as it does; that is our entry signal to grab onto the next run.
Volume: 2.494M Avg Volume: 2.93M
BUY POINT: $51.25 Volume=3.5M Target=$58.95 Stop=$49.08
POSITION: CCJ IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ccj.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$48.36; +0.80; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. STLD broke out from a 9 month base in January. It gave a complete test of that breakout to start March, then recovered and started the current trend higher. It is currently in a two week lateral consolidation, very tight and flat as the 10 and 18 day EMA rose to catch up with it. The did that to end last week. Primed in this nice tight pattern to move higher, and we like how it refused to give up any of its gains. It still has 2 to 3 such breaks higher ahead of it, making this entry point one that still has plenty of upside. Very dynamic pattern.
Volume: 1.675M Avg Volume: 1.89M
BUY POINT: $48.78 Volume=2.1M Target=$56.31 Stop=$46.77
POSITION: RQL HI - Aug. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ANF: Looking at 5-23-07. Nice doji at the 50 day EMA may set up a new break higher.
BA: Researching date. Nice breakout move last week to start the play!
BDX: No split announced 4-25-07. Struggling to hold the 50 day SMA as volume spikes.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
BLUD: Researching next date. Continued to struggle.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07
CHTT: Researching the date
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching a new date.
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Researching the date
COLM: Earnings 4-26-07. Not giving us the announcement but still setting up nicely here.
CTRP: Forecast 5-16-07. No split announcement but a big move on earnings.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07. Coming back to test after the gap higher on the same store sales.
DVN: Researching date.
EXC: No announcement on 4-25-07. Still testing some support at 76.
FOSL: Forecast 5-16-07. No split announcement with the earnings.
GVA: Researching date
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date.
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Still in the uptrend but no split in sight.
OSK: Earnings 5-3-07. Testing the break back from the strong breakout move.
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07. Researching date.
RIMM: Early June
SSYS: Earnings 4-26-07. No split yet but a nice test of the 10 day EMA.
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June.
YUM: Finally announced its split
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/19/2007
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$80.55; +0.61; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast 5-23-07
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 5-11-99 at $95.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
EARNINGS: 5-23-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ANF is making the low volume test of the 50 day EMA (78.90), using that key support as support for the handle. Nice base on base pattern the past 7 months has really shaken out the sellers. Retail had taken a turn for the better to end last week. ANF is definitely set up well to break higher with its earnings and with a split announcement.
Volume: 1.494M Avg Volume: 1.945M
BUY POINT: $81.38 Volume=2.9M Target=$93.95 Stop=$78.78
POSITION: ANF HP - Aug. $80c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
EOG (EOG Resources--$78.47; +1.77; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. EOG is on the verge of the breakout from a 16 month base, rallying on better volume to end last week as it started to crack the buy point Friday. Will need to show even stronger volume as it continues the move higher, showing us that the big money is behind it. Very solid to this point and now it needs to follow through with a strong breakout.
Volume: 2.371M Avg Volume: 2.394M
BUY POINT: $78.82 Volume=3.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$75.32
POSITION: EOG JP - Oct. $80c (49 delta) or EOG G0 - July $75c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eog.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$85.84; +2.11; optionable): Foreign telecom services
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in February 2004
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Foreign stocks are not necessarily splitters, but MICC has a history and it is in a nice 14 week base, moving laterally the past 8 weeks over the 18 day EMA (83.73). It tested the 50 day EMA to start last week and then finished the week with a jump higher on rising, average trade. Looks ready to make its move and we are ready to move in as MICC continues higher.
Volume: 520.458K Avg Volume: 545.038K
BUY POINT: $86.55 Volume=800K Target=$99.95 Stop=$83.65
POSITION: CQD JQ - Oct. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/micc.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$151.55; -0.31; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Finished the week on continued low volume as it tightens up the test of the big break higher two weeks back. Very solid and just waiting for it to show us the break higher. To recap: After a 6 month trading range including a mid-April gap lower, RIMM finally got a fire lit under it. It broke sharply higher last week on very strong trade and then tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (147) as it rose to meet it. Started to bounce Wednesday but needs some volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 4.419M Avg Volume: 6.528M
BUY POINT: $153.42 Volume=9M Target=$179.95 Stop=$146.55
POSITION: RFY IK - Sept. $155c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$63.15; +1.10; optionable): Independent oil and gas
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-9-05 at $51.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Did not make the break higher Friday with much of the energy market but still in a strong pattern ready to make its move. Just need to be patient. To recap: Strong break higher to start May as UPL rallied on strong earnings. It then tested laterally the past 2 weeks, coming back to tap and test the 10 day EMA (60.93), holding that as support. Beautiful textbook pattern, good earnings in the book, and set up to move higher. Looking for more trade as UPL shows us some ultra moves. You throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. Looks as if UPL is in that kind of a groove.
Volume: 950.22K Avg Volume: 962.656K
BUY POINT: $63.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$73.95 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: UPL IL - Sept. $60c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$40.12; +0.86; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announce 5-3-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume started higher Friday as WNR started to toy with the breakout. Trade was not enough to push it, however, and it slid back on the close. Looks primed to make the breakout from its 10 week base that consolidated that strong March run that made us some great money. A relatively new player in the sector, WNR is strong.
Volume: 613K Avg Volume: 759.816K
BUY POINT: $40.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$48.22 Stop=$37.57
POSITION: WNR IH - Sept. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wnr.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/12/2007
EPIQ (Epiq Systems--$23.93; +0.54; optionable): Software for legal and fiduciary service industries. Splits 3:2 on 6-8-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epiq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Volume surged to end last week, and Friday EPIQ was bumping the buy point. If it continues this move on anything near solid trade it is a buy. To recap: EPIQ broke higher from a 13 month cup with handle in late April, but it did not get very far before it started to test. It worked laterally the past two weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (22.90) on the lows. Friday volume blasted higher as EPIQ cleared the highs in the lateral breakout consolidation. Now it looks ready to make the run higher.
Volume: 287.97K Avg Volume: 180.433K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=175K Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.87
POSITION: FQU GX - July $22.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/epiq.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/15/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$37.60; +0.21; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Still in the nice test, holding the 10 day EMA on the last week lows. Excellent position and just needs to show the break higher. Love how it rallied earlier and then tested last week as energy came back to life. To recap: TIE is showing some good upside volume the past week as it broke higher from a 12 week double bottom that looks to be the tail end of a larger 13 month cup base. Some explosive moves as it cleared the 'hump' at 37.65; nice price and nice volume moves. It spent Monday and Tuesday testing back and on lower volume. May have some more to come back (a hump test?) before it is ready to continue, forming something of a handle to the double bottom, but the moves upside were explosive so we want to be ready to get into some titanium.
Volume: 1.6M Avg Volume: 2.439M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$46.38 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: TIE IG - Sept. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/17/2007
AMT (American Tower--$41.31; +0.66; optionable): Cell towers and infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Did not take much time trying to form a handle. Tried the move Friday and we really thought about moving in, but volume was lower and below average. Still looking solid and ready to move in this week as it continues higher. To recap: AMT looks as if it is starting to form a handle to its 12 week pattern after a strong price and volume break higher the past week. It faded back Thursday on below average volume. May take a few days to form the handle, but it was explosive on the last move higher, and we need to be ready to move in if it starts back up from here.
Volume: 2.507M Avg Volume: 2.564M
BUY POINT: On a move higher (orig. $41.21) Volume=3M Target=$47.50 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: AMT JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trend trading stock
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