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world stock market, trade stock
Beign part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCSI; BIDU; CCJ; DO; DXPE; GSOL; ICE; PTNR; PXP; RIG; ROSE; SGR; SPN; WNR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/21/2007
ALJ (Alon USA Energy--$39.98; +1.52; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alj.html
EARNINGS: 5-10-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice rangy 10 month base, the largest of its relatively short life (went public in summer 2005. A nice handle formed the past 7 weeks where it tested down to the 50 day EMA (36.03) and then recovered. Earnings took it lower but it held key support. Heck of a shakeout. It bounced off that level on strong volume, showing there were buyers. It then surged Monday on very strong trade, the best in two months. It cleared the prior highs in the handle and we are looking to move in as it continues this breakout move.
Volume: 996.774K Avg Volume: 471.786K
BUY POINT: $40.15 Volume=500K Target=$48.31 Stop=$37.66
POSITION: ALJ IH - Sept. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alj.html
Play Date: 05/21/2007
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$68.75; +3.05; optionable): Massive draglines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 5-4-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Have you seen the 'Modern Marvels' program on Discovery that gives the history of mining machines? BUCY's machines are a big part of that, but the show is a bit dated because it discusses how the big machines are no longer in demand here in the US. But now the rest of the world is its client. BUCY broke out in late April from a 12 month cup with handle base. It is now making its second test of the breakout, coming back to the 18 day EMA (65.05) to end last week. Monday BUCY jumped off that test. Volume was average; want to see more trade as it continues higher and follows its strong money flow to the upside.
Volume: 962.503K Avg Volume: 857.957K
BUY POINT: $69.57 Volume=1M Target=$79.95 Stop=$65.55
POSITION: HBU JN - Oct. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bucy.html
Play Date: 05/21/2007
HC (Hanover Compressor--$23.80; +0.65; optionable): Rental equipment for oil and natural gas production.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hc.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Strong move Monday as HC broke over the highs in its 15 week base that formed making higher lows over the 50 day EMA (22.27). It started this base after a big gap higher in early February on a strong earnings report. That took HC out of a 9 month base. Making a new 6 year high on the Monday move. Looking to start some positions as it continues higher and then adding positions as it makes the test.
Volume: 1.993M Avg Volume: 1.298M
BUY POINT: $24.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$28.95 Stop=$22.57
POSITION: HC IX - Sept. $22.50c (65 delta, 101 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hc.html
Play Date: 05/21/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$30.06; +0.22; optionable): Advanced positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at TRMB once more as it readies for the continuation of the early May breakout. TRMB broke higher on the earnings announcement, gapping out of its 12 week cup base. It rallied over 32 and then faded to fill the gap. Last week it dipped a bit below that level. Volume remained low and on Monday it gapped higher, recovering the 10 day EMA (29.95). Volume was still low but we really like the action from this leading stock that has great earnings growth and a solid pattern with a great buy point. All it has to do is position itself for a buy with a renewed breakout move on strong volume.
Volume: 419.301K Avg Volume: 582.835K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=700K Target=$35.95 Stop=$29.17
POSITION: TUH KF - Nov. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trmb.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/09/2007
CLB (Core Labs--$95.43; -0.23; optionable): Oil and gas services (well logging, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CLB was downgraded Monday, but you could not tell. Perhaps that kept it from really running higher with some other stocks, but you have to like how it held its ground given some negative news. Still in the test of the breakout from its 19 week cup with handle base. Good lateral move this month testing the move and now volume is running higher as it comes off a higher low at the 18 day EMA. That typically precedes the next break higher.
Volume: 387.2K Avg Volume: 273.724K
BUY POINT: $95.55 Volume=450K Target=$106.75 Stop=$92.11
POSITION: CLB IS - Sept. $95c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clb.html
Play Date: 05/12/2007
LFC (China Life Insurance--$49.64; +0.15; optionable): Chinese life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lfc.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. When you think about it, with a communist regime and citizens disappearing all the time, life insurance is not a bad idea in China. It is holding nicely over the 10 day EMA (49.34) on low, below average volume, testing a nice move from two Mondays back. Still a very nice 19 week base that is set up well for the breakout move.
Volume: 1.04M Avg Volume: 1.232M
BUY POINT: $50.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$58.45 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: LFC JJ - Oct. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lfc.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
MCHP (Microchip--$40.45; -0.19; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. If techs start to move MCHP is well-positioned to make the move as it continues testing its late April break higher, holding the 10 day EMA as it does. Low trade Monday, but set up well. To recap: MCHP broke out from a 12 month cup with handle base in late April on its earnings numbers, surging over 42 on the first move. It is now testing that break higher, hitting the 18 day EMA (39.97) last week before bouncing higher to end the week with a solid price and volume move. Indeed volume was above average for the first time since the start of the month. Excellent test and it looks as if a solid bounce is starting; that is where we want to move in.
Volume: 1.623M Avg Volume: 2.008M
BUY POINT: $41.44 Volume=2.6M Target=$47.75 Stop=$39.78
POSITION: QMT JH - Oct. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$34.92; +0.50; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is still showing solid kicks higher on the upside sessions, another one showing up Monday with an above average volume day as NTGR gapped up modestly off the 18 day EMA. Nice test of the late April gap higher on earnings that took it out of a nice 16 week cup with handle base. Strong volume continues to lead higher and NTGR is set up nicely to make the next move.
Volume: 859.374K Avg Volume: 685.33K
BUY POINT: $35.75 Volume=1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.33
POSITION: TUD IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 05/16/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$152.00; +0.45; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally, hitting the buy point in the early market run higher but it could not hold on as volume faded below average once more. Still looks super. Just needs some volume to break it higher. To recap: After a 6 month trading range including a mid-April gap lower, RIMM finally got a fire lit under it. It broke sharply higher last week on very strong trade and then tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (147) as it rose to meet it. Started to bounce Wednesday but needs some volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 3.829M Avg Volume: 6.528M
BUY POINT: $153.42 Volume=9M Target=$179.95 Stop=$146.55
POSITION: RFY IK - Sept. $155c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rimm.html
Play Date: 05/15/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$37.60; +0.21; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Still in the nice test, holding the 10 day EMA on the last week lows. Excellent position and just needs to show the break higher. Love how it rallied earlier and then tested last week as energy came back to life. To recap: TIE is showing some good upside volume the past week as it broke higher from a 12 week double bottom that looks to be the tail end of a larger 13 month cup base. Some explosive moves as it cleared the 'hump' at 37.65; nice price and nice volume moves. It spent Monday and Tuesday testing back and on lower volume. May have some more to come back (a hump test?) before it is ready to continue, forming something of a handle to the double bottom, but the moves upside were explosive so we want to be ready to get into some titanium.
Volume: 1.6M Avg Volume: 2.439M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$46.38 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: TIE IG - Sept. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tie.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/19/2007
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology--$21.60; -0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Double top. Jumped up to the 50 day EMA (22.36) on the high, then fading back to close below the 90 day MA (21.77). Volume was higher but still well below average. Tombstone doji on the session indicates the rebound momentum is waning. Looking for a turn down from here to start the play. To recap: SIMO made is some strong cash on the upside with its early 2007 run. Superlative. Then it ran so hard it ran out of road and peaked in March. Rallied again but made a second top as it gapped higher on earnings then suffered a nasty reversal. It broke lower, cracked the 90 day MA (21.73) last week on volume, then rebounded to test that breach on lower volume to end the week. Looking for this test to fail and take SIMO lower again. As it does we will look to capitalize on the downside move. A drop to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 573.682K Avg Volume: 934.176K
BUY POINT: $21.41 Volume=950K Target=$19.72 Stop=$21.88
POSITION: MQI SD - July $22.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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