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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: COG; GVA; HURN; ICE; MR; NTGR; PENN; RIMM; AEO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/22/2007
CMI (Cummins--$87.56; -0.28; optionable): Diesel engines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: Announced late April
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Big run for CMI to end April that ended with a gap higher and run higher before an intraday reversal. After that session and run it needed to test, and the current 4 week pullback to the 18 day EMA (87.61) is giving it that rest. Low volume shows no dumping, just a quiet, behind the scenes pullback. After that big surge higher on big volume to end the last run we need to see strong volume on the break higher to show the buyers are back in and it was not a blow off top that is leading to a collapse. It is not showing those indications as the pullback is orderly and on light volume, but strong upside trade is the best indication the buyers are ready to move back in and take CMI on a run to 100.
Volume: 1.316M Avg Volume: 2.287M
BUY POINT: $89.15 Volume=2.5M Target=$99.85 Stop=$86.95
POSITION: CDM IY - Sept. $87.50c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmi.html
Play Date: 05/22/2007
SUNH (Sun Healthcrea Group--$14.15; +0.05; optionable): Long-term healthcare facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sunh.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice orderly test the past two weeks of a strong early May breakout from a 12 week cup with handle base. The move took SUNH to a 4.5 year high. After that it is doing some backing and filling, and has come back to fully test the breakout, holding support at 14 and the 10 day EMA. Nice doji Tuesday on rising, above average volume that saw SUNH reach lower toward the 18 day EMA and then rebound to close flat. Looking for that volume to continue as SUNH continues higher off of this breakout support.
Volume: 646.742K Avg Volume: 404.752K
BUY POINT: $14.38 Volume=600K Target=$17.45 Stop=$13.78
POSITION: QUO IV - Sept. $12.50c (71 delta, 269 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sunh.html
Play Date: 05/22/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$62.93; +1.52; optionable): Chip equipment. Splits 3:2 on 5-31-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Pre-Split. VSEA gapped massively higher in late April on its earnings report and split announcement, hitting 70 on that session. Though VSEA preceded this gap with a three week lateral move, the run higher ahead of that was solid and it needed a breather. It has spent May coming back to test that move and over the past week has tapped at 60 twice intraday, rebounding to close higher. Tuesday it showed the same action but posted a nice gain on a solid rise in volume back up to average. Money flow is rallying ahead of price. Looks as if VSEA is ready to give us a pre-split move here.
Volume: 1.61M Avg Volume: 1.547M
BUY POINT: $63.55 Volume=2M Target=$72.95 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: UES HL - Aug. $60c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsea.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/22/2007
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$78.69; +0.27; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Put. CTSH gapped lower on its earnings report to start the month, gapping below the 90 day MA near 87.50. It tumbled through the 200 day SMA (80.73) as well. When a stock falls through the 200 day SMA that means none of the big buyers want to support it anymore; indeed, they are still selling it. CTSH managed a relief bounce up to test that breach, tapping at the 200 day on the Tuesday high before rolling over to close flat. That kept it below that key resistance, showing sellers were still selling shares after a bounce. Looking to move in as it continues the break lower, following very weak money flow. A move to our target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 2.139M Avg Volume: 2.091M
BUY POINT: $78.48 Volume=2.3M Target=$75.00 Stop=$79.45
POSITION: UPU SP - July $80p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctsh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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