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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: COG; GVA; HURN; ICE; PENN; RIMM
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/22/2007
TSO (Tesoro Petroleum--$120.01; -0.99; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Double bottom. TSO is consolidating a 12 week run, forming a short 4 week double bottom over the 18 day EMA. It is not giving up much ground at all as it sets up for the next run. Like that action. Tuesday it tried to run higher but gave it back on some rising, average volume. Energy started to test some Tuesday and we will be patient and let TSO test a bit more and then show us the next break higher on solid trade. That is when we move in on this play.
Volume: 3.45M Avg Volume: 3.169M
BUY POINT: $121.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$139.65 Stop=$118.08
POSITION: TSO HD - Aug. $120c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tso.html
Play Date: 05/22/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$62.93; +1.52; optionable): Chip equipment. Splits 3:2 on 5-31-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Pre-Split. VSEA gapped massively higher in late April on its earnings report and split announcement, hitting 70 on that session. Though VSEA preceded this gap with a three week lateral move, the run higher ahead of that was solid and it needed a breather. It has spent May coming back to test that move and over the past week has tapped at 60 twice intraday, rebounding to close higher. Tuesday it showed the same action but posted a nice gain on a solid rise in volume back up to average. Money flow is rallying ahead of price. Looks as if VSEA is ready to give us a pre-split move here.
Volume: 1.61M Avg Volume: 1.547M
BUY POINT: $63.55 Volume=2M Target=$72.95 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: UES HL - Aug. $60c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/22/2007
CMI (Cummins--$87.56; -0.28; optionable): Diesel engines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: Announced late April
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Big run for CMI to end April that ended with a gap higher and run higher before an intraday reversal. After that session and run it needed to test, and the current 4 week pullback to the 18 day EMA (87.61) is giving it that rest. Low volume shows no dumping, just a quiet, behind the scenes pullback. After that big surge higher on big volume to end the last run we need to see strong volume on the break higher to show the buyers are back in and it was not a blow off top that is leading to a collapse. It is not showing those indications as the pullback is orderly and on light volume, but strong upside trade is the best indication the buyers are ready to move back in and take CMI on a run to 100.
Volume: 1.316M Avg Volume: 2.287M
BUY POINT: $89.15 Volume=2.5M Target=$99.85 Stop=$86.95
POSITION: CDM IY - Sept. $87.50c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ANF: Looking at 5-23-07 after the close. Looking to move in ahead of the earnings announcement with an aggressive play.
BA: Researching date.
BDX: No split announced 4-25-07. Still struggling, managing to rebound and hold the 90 day MA.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching the date
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Researching the date
CTRP: Forecast 5-16-07. No split announcement but a big move on earnings.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07. Back up to the May high.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
FOSL: Forecast 5-16-07. No split announcement with the earnings.
GVA: Researching date. Could occur next week.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date.
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Still in the uptrend but no split in sight.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07. Looking for next week.
RIMM: Early June
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June.
YUM: Finally announced its split
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/22/2007
BHI (Baker Hughes--$82.21; -0.28; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BHI is working on a three week handle to a much larger 12 month double bottom with handle base. The handle itself is a short double bottom with handle pattern. Good bounce last week to form the right side of the pattern as it bounced off the 18 day EMA, and now a modest dip the past two sessions, working on the handle within a handle. It likely needs another day or two to test and set up the break higher, but we like what we see and want to be ready when it makes the break higher.
Volume: 3.599M Avg Volume: 4.955M
BUY POINT: $83.75 Volume=7M Target=$96.50 Stop=$80.95
POSITION: BHI JP - Oct. $80c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhi.html
Play Date: 05/21/2007
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$68.75; +3.05; optionable): Massive draglines, etc.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-8-06 at $62.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 5-4-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher Tuesday but could not hold it, fading but on low, below average volume. Still a nice pattern and still set to make a break higher. To recap: Have you seen the 'Modern Marvels' program on Discovery that gives the history of mining machines? BUCY's machines are a big part of that, but the show is a bit dated because it discusses how the big machines are no longer in demand here in the US. But now the rest of the world is its client. BUCY broke out in late April from a 12 month cup with handle base. It is now making its second test of the breakout, coming back to the 18 day EMA (65.05) to end last week. Monday BUCY jumped off that test. Volume was average; want to see more trade as it continues higher and follows its strong money flow to the upside.
Volume: 962.503K Avg Volume: 857.957K
BUY POINT: $69.57 Volume=1M Target=$79.95 Stop=$65.55
POSITION: HBU JN - Oct. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/19/2007
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$80.99; -0.34; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast 5-23-07
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 5-11-99 at $95.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
EARNINGS: 5-23-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Holding the 10 day EMA on low volume ahead of earnings. Looking to move in ahead of the close or if we get a good bounce intraday. Aggressive as it is an earnings play and retail, but ANF is solidly set up and is ripe for an announcement. To recap: ANF is making the low volume test of the 50 day EMA (78.90), using that key support as support for the handle. Nice base on base pattern the past 7 months has really shaken out the sellers. Retail had taken a turn for the better to end last week. ANF is definitely set up well to break higher with its earnings and with a split announcement.
Volume: 1.079M Avg Volume: 1.953M
BUY POINT: $81.38 Volume=2.9M Target=$93.95 Stop=$78.78
POSITION: ANF HP - Aug. $80c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
Play Date: 05/19/2007
EOG (EOG Resources--$77.53; -1.00; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume test Tuesday following a solid move higher that almost took EOG out of its larger base. Testing back with the rest of the energy stocks but on low trade. Still looking good and ready to move in after this test with a bounce on higher volume. To recap: EOG is on the verge of the breakout from a 16 month base, rallying on better volume to end last week as it started to crack the buy point Friday. Will need to show even stronger volume as it continues the move higher, showing us that the big money is behind it. Very solid to this point and now it needs to follow through with a strong breakout.
Volume: 1.66M Avg Volume: 2.396M
BUY POINT: $78.82 Volume=3.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$75.32
POSITION: EOG JP - Oct. $80c (49 delta) or EOG G0 - July $75c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eog.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/16/2007
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$83.72; +1.02; optionable): Biotech.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Tried to make the break Tuesday, bouncing off the 18 day EMA on the low and darn near making the breakout from the 5 week lateral move. Volume was still below average so it did not have the push to make the move. Really like the action we are seeing and anticipate GILD making the move.
Volume: 3.025M Avg Volume: 4.324M
BUY POINT: $84.38 Volume=6.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$81.89
POSITION: GDQ HQ - Aug. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/18/2007
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$37.71; +0.01; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still a solid set for a breakout, just not getting the volume yet to push it higher. Solid, just needs to show the breakout move. To recap: After a shakeout early last week, CBG tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded, showing a nice jump in volume off that key support level. Very solid action in its 15 week pattern as CBG sets perched on the cusp of a breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent fundamentals and technical pattern. To recap: Now conventional wisdom would say that anything real estate would not be a great idea. But the economic data is heading back up, not down, and that means the commercial real estate CBG deals with will continue to be in demand.
Volume: 1.743M Avg Volume: 2.123M
BUY POINT: $38.32 Volume=3.2M Target=$44.32 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: CBG IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbg.html
Play Date: 05/21/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$30.18; +0.12; optionable): Advanced positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Bouncing the past two sessions, at least in price. TRMB looks ready to continue the breakout, the buyers just are not on board yet. Need to see that stronger trade as I tmake the break higher. To recap: Looking at TRMB once more as it readies for the continuation of the early May breakout. TRMB broke higher on the earnings announcement, gapping out of its 12 week cup base. It rallied over 32 and then faded to fill the gap. Last week it dipped a bit below that level. Volume remained low and on Monday it gapped higher, recovering the 10 day EMA (29.95). Volume was still low but we really like the action from this leading stock that has great earnings growth and a solid pattern with a great buy point. All it has to do is position itself for a buy with a renewed breakout move on strong volume.
Volume: 298.119K Avg Volume: 582.835K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=700K Target=$35.95 Stop=$29.17
POSITION: TUH KF - Nov. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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