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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BIDU; CCJ; CROX; CXW; DO; ESV; ICE; RIMM; SUN; AEO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$76.72; +0.68; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-16-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another look at CTRP now that it has come back to test that gap high just over a week back. An explosive gap and breakout from its 14 week cup with handle base on a strong earnings report sent CTRP to 82 on that initial burst. The gap was not tested so we had to wait for it to come back. Patience paid off as CTRP has come back to hold the 18 day EMA, holding there nicely Friday after getting whacked Wednesday and Thursday with the other China stocks on the Greenspan nonsense. This is what we wanted, and now we look for CTRP to rebound on some rising volume as that shows us the big buyers are back in and ready to buy more again. Great leader.
Volume: 202.74K Avg Volume: 20.919M
BUY POINT: $77.25 Volume=425K Target=$89.95 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: QCT IO - Sept. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
NKE (Nike--$54.28; -0.19; optionable): Sports apparel, sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: 6-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. NKE sprinted higher last Monday, breaking out of a 12 week ascending base that formed to consolidate a nice fall breakout and run higher from a larger 21 month base. That was a long consolidation, setting NKE up for its next runs. The first is in the bank and now NKE is ready to give us another one as it comes off of this test on some rising trade. Sweet pattern and we are waiting for NKE to just do it and give us the continuing breakout move.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 3.107M
BUY POINT: $54.68 Volume=3.6M Target=$62.95 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: NKE JX - Oct. $52.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nke.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$28.06; -0.14; optionable): Online games in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SNDA is working higher on the right side of a very big 22 month cup base, making higher and higher lows this year as it builds the base. It is just coming back from its last bounce up the 90 day MA, showing a doji Friday at the 10 day EMA. Looks as if it is going to make a higher low at near support and launch the next strong move higher. Like how SNDA has plenty of room to run before it starts to challenge that the prior high at 40. Our initial target is well below that level and will give us a nice gain long before SNDA starts to feel any resistance from that prior high. Very solid.
Volume: 702.724K Avg Volume: 736.281K
BUY POINT: $28.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$34.45 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: QKU IE - Sept. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/snda.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$57.63; +0.55; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. XTO broke out from a large, rangy 13 month base in March and rallied to 50ish where it fell into the current 6 week cup base. It broke higher just over a week back and then last week it came back to test in the move, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA to end the week. Very nice test that is setting up the next breakout and run higher. Very solid action showing very little selling that plagued some of the energy stocks last week. Xtremely nice.
Volume: 2.32M Avg Volume: 3.255M
BUY POINT: $58.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$66.95 Stop=$56.48
POSITION: XTO IK - Aug. $55c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
INAP (Internap Network--$15.00; -0.24; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inap.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Put. INAP has trended lower since a double top to end 2006 and start 2007. It fell to the 200 day SMA (16.68) through April and tried to make a stand with a big gap higher on the earnings report. It turned over quickly and broke the 200 day SMA once again two weeks back. It tried to rebound to test, but failed at the 10 day EMA (15.52). It is now sitting right at the early May lows and a support level from September and October 2006. If it breaks lower here it is going to make us some money. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 409.096K Avg Volume: 739.266K
BUY POINT: $14.87 Volume=750K Target=$13.65 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: IIP SC - July $15p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/inap.html
New buy points on current positions:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$93.38; +1.64; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We moved into DO as it broke higher a couple weeks back from a big 13 month base. Excellent surge higher made us some good money, and it spent last week testing the move. Got a big dicey Thursday as did many energy stocks as volume rallied on the selling, but DO easily held the 10 day EMA and Friday it rebounded. Looking for some solid trade as DO resumes its upward mobility.
Volume: 1.593M Avg Volume: 2.384M
BUY POINT: $94.22 Volume=3.5M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.21
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
LYO (Lyondell Chemical--$36.58; +0.68; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lyo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice, nice surge from LYO right after we put it on the report last time, and now LYO is in position once more to make another move higher. It has come back to the 18 day EMA (35.54) to test, bouncing back up Friday. Excellent action from this leader, and looking to move in as DO continues the breakout move on continued strong volume.
Volume: 3.786M Avg Volume: 3.28M
BUY POINT: $37.45 Volume=5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.42
POSITION: LYO IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lyo.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$79.24; +0.39; optionable): Well logging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-20-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SLB is showing its second test of the early April breakout from its 11 month triple bottom base. Exploded higher for us a couple of weeks back as it came off of that initial breakout test. Now it is making its next test, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA (78.32), coming back on low volume, showing no heavy selling. SLB is again setting up for the next move higher, and we will pick it off as it rebounds from the 10 day EMA on some rising trade.
Volume: 5.577M Avg Volume: 9.139M
BUY POINT: $80.22 Volume=10M Target=$91.95 Stop=$78.11
POSITION: SLB HP - Aug. $80c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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