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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BIDU; BTU; CNX; CROX; CXW; EPIQ; ESV; FCX; ICE; IOC; SUN; WNR; AEO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
NKE (Nike--$54.28; -0.19; optionable): Sports apparel, sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: 6-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. NKE sprinted higher last Monday, breaking out of a 12 week ascending base that formed to consolidate a nice fall breakout and run higher from a larger 21 month base. That was a long consolidation, setting NKE up for its next runs. The first is in the bank and now NKE is ready to give us another one as it comes off of this test on some rising trade. Sweet pattern and we are waiting for NKE to just do it and give us the continuing breakout move.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 3.107M
BUY POINT: $54.68 Volume=3.6M Target=$62.95 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: NKE JX - Oct. $52.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nke.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$28.06; -0.14; optionable): Online games in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SNDA is working higher on the right side of a very big 22 month cup base, making higher and higher lows this year as it builds the base. It is just coming back from its last bounce up the 90 day MA, showing a doji Friday at the 10 day EMA. Looks as if it is going to make a higher low at near support and launch the next strong move higher. Like how SNDA has plenty of room to run before it starts to challenge that the prior high at 40. Our initial target is well below that level and will give us a nice gain long before SNDA starts to feel any resistance from that prior high. Very solid.
Volume: 702.724K Avg Volume: 736.281K
BUY POINT: $28.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$34.45 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: QKU IE - Sept. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/snda.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$57.63; +0.55; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. XTO broke out from a large, rangy 13 month base in March and rallied to 50ish where it fell into the current 6 week cup base. It broke higher just over a week back and then last week it came back to test in the move, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA to end the week. Very nice test that is setting up the next breakout and run higher. Very solid action showing very little selling that plagued some of the energy stocks last week. Xtremely nice.
Volume: 2.32M Avg Volume: 3.255M
BUY POINT: $58.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$66.95 Stop=$56.48
POSITION: XTO IK - Aug. $55c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xto.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
INAP (Internap Network--$15.00; -0.24; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inap.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Put. INAP has trended lower since a double top to end 2006 and start 2007. It fell to the 200 day SMA (16.68) through April and tried to make a stand with a big gap higher on the earnings report. It turned over quickly and broke the 200 day SMA once again two weeks back. It tried to rebound to test, but failed at the 10 day EMA (15.52). It is now sitting right at the early May lows and a support level from September and October 2006. If it breaks lower here it is going to make us some money. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 409.096K Avg Volume: 739.266K
BUY POINT: $14.87 Volume=750K Target=$13.65 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: IIP SC - July $15p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/inap.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
OCR (Omnicare--$37.61; +0.03; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Put. OCR has trended lower since early 2006 when it double topped. Long downtrend. It has tried to make a comeback now and again, the most recent in February when it ran up to test the 200 day SMA over 40, but that didn't take. It gapped sharply lower on the earnings in late April. It was slaughtered on that move, but it has made a slow, low volume recovery this week, making it back up to the 50 day SMA (38.47) on the high last week. It started to erode back again the second half of the week though on low volume. Looking for OCR to pick up some volume this week as it heads back down through the 10 day EMA (37.20). A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.122M Avg Volume: 2.194M
BUY POINT: $37.15 Volume=2.8M Target=$35.00 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: OCR SU - July $37.50p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ocr.html
New buy points on current positions:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$144.99; +2.83; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. After a nice tight consolidation the first half of may gave way to a strong surge, ICE is testing the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (142.91) last week on the close. Nice set up for a continued move higher in ICE's 12 week cup with handle. This looks to be a gift, and we are ready to move in on it as it rebounds on some rising volume.
Volume: 2.23M Avg Volume: 4.722M
BUY POINT: $146.11 Volume=5M Target=$165.00 Stop=$142.05
POSITION: IHH IJ - Sept. $150c (45 delta) or IIH IY - Sept $145c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ice.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
LYO (Lyondell Chemical--$36.58; +0.68; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lyo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice, nice surge from LYO right after we put it on the report last time, and now LYO is in position once more to make another move higher. It has come back to the 18 day EMA (35.54) to test, bouncing back up Friday. Excellent action from this leader, and looking to move in as DO continues the breakout move on continued strong volume.
Volume: 3.786M Avg Volume: 3.28M
BUY POINT: $37.45 Volume=5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.42
POSITION: LYO IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lyo.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, PCLN, NVDA, NYX
AAPL: Ho-hum. Another 2.93 points as AAPL rebounded to end the week. Some distribution Wednesday and Thursday and lower trade Friday. It is still in the trend, however, so we are not going to overanalyze it.
CELG: Yep. Heading lower for a deeper test on rising trade. The industry 'confidential' blue book was out last week and the biotech stocks are all reacting in different ways. No inside information trading going on here. Ha!
GME: Ready for some more upside now that this test is over.
GOOG: Now it is making a move, rising on stronger, above average volume. It is a buy on a continued move this week.
PCLN: Making a higher low at the 10 day EMA. A higher volume bounce from here is a buy.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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