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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CAN; BIDU; BTU; CCJ; CROX; CXW; DO; FCX; ICE; IOC; RIMM; SGR; SU; SWN; VCLK; WNR; AEO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$28.06; -0.14; optionable): Online games in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SNDA is working higher on the right side of a very big 22 month cup base, making higher and higher lows this year as it builds the base. It is just coming back from its last bounce up the 90 day MA, showing a doji Friday at the 10 day EMA. Looks as if it is going to make a higher low at near support and launch the next strong move higher. Like how SNDA has plenty of room to run before it starts to challenge that the prior high at 40. Our initial target is well below that level and will give us a nice gain long before SNDA starts to feel any resistance from that prior high. Very solid.
Volume: 702.724K Avg Volume: 736.281K
BUY POINT: $28.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$34.45 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: QKU IE - Sept. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snda.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$57.63; +0.55; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. XTO broke out from a large, rangy 13 month base in March and rallied to 50ish where it fell into the current 6 week cup base. It broke higher just over a week back and then last week it came back to test in the move, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA to end the week. Very nice test that is setting up the next breakout and run higher. Very solid action showing very little selling that plagued some of the energy stocks last week. Xtremely nice.
Volume: 2.32M Avg Volume: 3.255M
BUY POINT: $58.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$66.95 Stop=$56.48
POSITION: XTO IK - Aug. $55c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
INAP (Internap Network--$15.00; -0.24; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inap.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Put. INAP has trended lower since a double top to end 2006 and start 2007. It fell to the 200 day SMA (16.68) through April and tried to make a stand with a big gap higher on the earnings report. It turned over quickly and broke the 200 day SMA once again two weeks back. It tried to rebound to test, but failed at the 10 day EMA (15.52). It is now sitting right at the early May lows and a support level from September and October 2006. If it breaks lower here it is going to make us some money. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 409.096K Avg Volume: 739.266K
BUY POINT: $14.87 Volume=750K Target=$13.65 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: IIP SC - July $15p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/inap.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
OCR (Omnicare--$37.61; +0.03; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Put. OCR has trended lower since early 2006 when it double topped. Long downtrend. It has tried to make a comeback now and again, the most recent in February when it ran up to test the 200 day SMA over 40, but that didn't take. It gapped sharply lower on the earnings in late April. It was slaughtered on that move, but it has made a slow, low volume recovery this week, making it back up to the 50 day SMA (38.47) on the high last week. It started to erode back again the second half of the week though on low volume. Looking for OCR to pick up some volume this week as it heads back down through the 10 day EMA (37.20). A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.122M Avg Volume: 2.194M
BUY POINT: $37.15 Volume=2.8M Target=$35.00 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: OCR SU - July $37.50p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ocr.html
New buy points on current positions:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$93.38; +1.64; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We moved into DO as it broke higher a couple weeks back from a big 13 month base. Excellent surge higher made us some good money, and it spent last week testing the move. Got a big dicey Thursday as did many energy stocks as volume rallied on the selling, but DO easily held the 10 day EMA and Friday it rebounded. Looking for some solid trade as DO resumes its upward mobility.
Volume: 1.593M Avg Volume: 2.384M
BUY POINT: $94.22 Volume=3.5M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.21
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/do.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$144.99; +2.83; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. After a nice tight consolidation the first half of may gave way to a strong surge, ICE is testing the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (142.91) last week on the close. Nice set up for a continued move higher in ICE's 12 week cup with handle. This looks to be a gift, and we are ready to move in on it as it rebounds on some rising volume.
Volume: 2.23M Avg Volume: 4.722M
BUY POINT: $146.11 Volume=5M Target=$165.00 Stop=$142.05
POSITION: IHH IJ - Sept. $150c (45 delta) or IIH IY - Sept $145c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
LYO (Lyondell Chemical--$36.58; +0.68; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lyo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice, nice surge from LYO right after we put it on the report last time, and now LYO is in position once more to make another move higher. It has come back to the 18 day EMA (35.54) to test, bouncing back up Friday. Excellent action from this leader, and looking to move in as DO continues the breakout move on continued strong volume.
Volume: 3.786M Avg Volume: 3.28M
BUY POINT: $37.45 Volume=5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.42
POSITION: LYO IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lyo.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$79.24; +0.39; optionable): Well logging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-20-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SLB is showing its second test of the early April breakout from its 11 month triple bottom base. Exploded higher for us a couple of weeks back as it came off of that initial breakout test. Now it is making its next test, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA (78.32), coming back on low volume, showing no heavy selling. SLB is again setting up for the next move higher, and we will pick it off as it rebounds from the 10 day EMA on some rising trade.
Volume: 5.577M Avg Volume: 9.139M
BUY POINT: $80.22 Volume=10M Target=$91.95 Stop=$78.11
POSITION: SLB HP - Aug. $80c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slb.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/24/2007
CRZO (Carrizo Oil & Gas--$38.47; +0.15; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crzo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-9-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice tight doji Friday at the 10 day EMA on very low volume. Excellent test of the break higher and in great position to rally from here. To recap: CRZO is trading just off an all-time high, coming back this week on low volume to test its last move up off the 50 day EMA. It broke out from a 15 week base in late March and rallied on up the 18 day EMA. It made the 50 day EMA test, coming back to rest after the initial breakout run. It showed some excellent volume as it rebounded off of that key support, telling us that the big money was back in and pushing it higher. After this test of near support it will be ready to run back up the 10 and 18 day EMA once more. When it bounces on some strong volume we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 217.45K Avg Volume: 516.984K
BUY POINT: $38.94 Volume=750K Target=$45.75 Stop=$37.55
POSITION: QOW JG - Oct. $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crzo.html
Play Date: 05/24/2007
GME (Gamestop--$35.79; +0.58; optionable): Video games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Held the 18 day EMA test from Thursday and bounced back Friday. Volume was lower so we held off moving in. Still looks solid and looking to move in as GME makes its play higher. To recap: GME announced some solid earnings this week but it had already put in a good move ahead of the number and the result was anticlimactic. It has come back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA (34.9) on the intraday low Thursday and rebounding modestly. Lower volume on the session so no dumping, just a pullback. This is testing the breakout from a 6 week lateral base GME broke higher from two weeks back. May come back to test the 18 day EMA once again, but want to be ready to step in as GME rebounds off of this test of near support.
Volume: 1.643M Avg Volume: 2.124M
BUY POINT: $35.57 Volume=3.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$34.62
POSITION: GME JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gme.html
Play Date: 05/23/2007
PEP (Pepsico--$68.82; +0.37; optionable): Snack and beverages (sugar water)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pep.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice bounce off the 10 day EMA Friday though volume was not there. Excellent test and ready to resume the breakout move. To recap: PEP broke higher from a 7.5 month base in mid-April and is making its second test of that breakout, coming back to the 10 day EMA (68.39) last week after a strong rally to a new high. Nice lower volume test, showing a couple of dojis above that level the past two sessions. Looking for PEP to rebound from here and make the next run in the breakout move. Looking to play that run with some options. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 4.081M Avg Volume: 5.642M
BUY POINT: $69.05 Volume=6.2M Target=$72.25 Stop=$68.08
POSITION: PEP JU - Oct. $67.50c (65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pep.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/24/2007
PRFT (Perficient--$20.69; +0.33; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-10-07
STATUS: Double top. Bounced with the market Friday, moving up to the 90 day MA (20.69) but on very low volume. Still looking for the rollover from here. To recap: Good breakout in early April and then a test of the 50 day EMA (20.95). It tried to continue the breakout but failed, falling through the 50 and 90 day MA last week on some heavy volume. It has rebounded to test, but could not get through the 90 day MA. Volume jacked on up well above average Thursday as PRFT tapped the 90 day MA on the high and then closed lower. Looking for a fall toward the 200 day SMA (18.12). Our initial target is more conservative, and a move to that level lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 175.531K Avg Volume: 395.486K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=400K Target=$18.86 Stop=$20.75
POSITION: UTJ SD - July $20p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prft.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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