|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BA; BIDU; BTU; CCJ; CNX; CROX; CVS; CXW; DO; EPIQ; FCX; ICE; MRO; NE; RIMM; SUN; VCLK; WNR
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$41.11; +0.11; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: 6-5-07
STATUS: Flat. Taking another look at GES as it makes a higher low at the 10 and 18 day EMA, easing back to end the week on some low volume. Higher and higher lows below a steady top at 42.50. We like that combination as it builds pressure from below and the breakouts can be somewhat spectacular. Nice tight doji with tail Friday and money flow moving up. It has taken a bit to set it up but it is pinching off at the end of its 14 week base and it is going to either break higher or break lower from here. Like the action as it indicates an upside move.
Volume: 728.6K Avg Volume: 1.3M
BUY POINT: $42.68 Volume=2M Target=$49.65 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: GES IV - Sept. $42.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
New buy point on current post-split position:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$79.24; +0.39; optionable): Well logging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-20-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SLB is showing its second test of the early April breakout from its 11 month triple bottom base. Exploded higher for us a couple of weeks back as it came off of that initial breakout test. Now it is making its next test, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA (78.32), coming back on low volume, showing no heavy selling. SLB is again setting up for the next move higher, and we will pick it off as it rebounds from the 10 day EMA on some rising trade.
Volume: 5.577M Avg Volume: 9.139M
BUY POINT: $80.22 Volume=10M Target=$91.95 Stop=$78.11
POSITION: SLB HP - Aug. $80c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
New buy point on current Leader Play:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$144.99; +2.83; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. After a nice tight consolidation the first half of may gave way to a strong surge, ICE is testing the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (142.91) last week on the close. Nice set up for a continued move higher in ICE's 12 week cup with handle. This looks to be a gift, and we are ready to move in on it as it rebounds on some rising volume.
Volume: 2.23M Avg Volume: 4.722M
BUY POINT: $146.11 Volume=5M Target=$165.00 Stop=$142.05
POSITION: IHH IJ - Sept. $150c (45 delta) or IIH IY - Sept $145c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ice.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
OCR (Omnicare--$37.61; +0.03; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Put. OCR has trended lower since early 2006 when it double topped. Long downtrend. It has tried to make a comeback now and again, the most recent in February when it ran up to test the 200 day SMA over 40, but that didn't take. It gapped sharply lower on the earnings in late April. It was slaughtered on that move, but it has made a slow, low volume recovery this week, making it back up to the 50 day SMA (38.47) on the high last week. It started to erode back again the second half of the week though on low volume. Looking for OCR to pick up some volume this week as it heads back down through the 10 day EMA (37.20). A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.122M Avg Volume: 2.194M
BUY POINT: $37.15 Volume=2.8M Target=$35.00 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: OCR SU - July $37.50p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ocr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching date. Good solid finish to last week.
BHI: Lower volume on the last taps at the highs. Will see how it holds on this test.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07. Fell through the 18 day EMA and we took the rest of the gain off the table. Will have to see how it sets back up.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching the date.
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Researching the date
CTRP: Earnings 5-16-07 but no split announcement. Researching next date but setting up well for a new buy in the meantime.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
GVA: Researching date. Letting it complete the pullback and then we will look for a new buy.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date.
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Fell through the 18 day EMA on strong volume Thursday. Have to see how it holds up on this test before we move back in.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07. Modest fade back after that gap higher.
RIMM: Early June. Great move last week.
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
CRDN (Ceradyne--$66.34; +0.52; optionable): Ceramic body armor, etc. Forecast mid-June.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-20-04 at $52.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CRDN broke higher in early May after coming back from its earnings announcement that saw it slip for a quick test toward the 50 day EMA (61.93). It recovered just as fast and broke out from a 14 month base on base pattern, the last base a 15 week double bottom. It was in trouble two Fridays back after a downgrade, but it has calmed down into a tighter range, holding the 18 day EMA (65.41) as it tests on lower volume. We just need to be patient and see how it holds this test and then the break higher needs to come through on some volume.
Volume: 412.976K Avg Volume: 807.189K
BUY POINT: $67.55 Volume=1M Target=$77.75 Stop=$65.28
POSITION: AUE IM - Sept. $65c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 05/26/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$76.72; +0.68; optionable): Chinese travel services
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 4-11-06 at $87.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-16-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another look at CTRP now that it has come back to test that gap high just over a week back. An explosive gap and breakout from its 14 week cup with handle base on a strong earnings report sent CTRP to 82 on that initial burst. The gap was not tested so we had to wait for it to come back. Patience paid off as CTRP has come back to hold the 18 day EMA, holding there nicely Friday after getting whacked Wednesday and Thursday with the other China stocks on the Greenspan nonsense. This is what we wanted, and now we look for CTRP to rebound on some rising volume as that shows us the big buyers are back in and ready to buy more again. Great leader.
Volume: 202.74K Avg Volume: 20.919M
BUY POINT: $77.25 Volume=425K Target=$89.95 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: QCT IO - Sept. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$93.38; +1.64; optionable): Offshore drilling
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-10-07 at $82.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We moved into DO as it broke higher a couple weeks back from a big 13 month base. Excellent surge higher made us some good money, and it spent last week testing the move. Got a big dicey Thursday as did many energy stocks as volume rallied on the selling, but DO easily held the 10 day EMA and Friday it rebounded. Looking for some solid trade as DO resumes its upward mobility.
Volume: 1.593M Avg Volume: 2.384M
BUY POINT: $94.22 Volume=3.5M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.21
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/22/2007
TSO (Tesoro Petroleum--$119.79; +3.85; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Double bottom. As with most energy stocks, TSO struggled Thursday, but Friday it gapped higher and closed back above the 10 day EMA. Lower volume both sessions, so it was not under heavy pressure. Good recovery continues its 4 week lateral consolidation. Like how it refuses to give up the gains. To recap: TSO is consolidating a 12 week run, forming a short 4 week double bottom over the 18 day EMA. It is not giving up much ground at all as it sets up for the next run. Like that action. Tuesday it tried to run higher but gave it back on some rising, average volume. Energy started to test some Tuesday and we will be patient and let TSO test a bit more and then show us the next break higher on solid trade. That is when we move in on this play.
Volume: 2.61M Avg Volume: 3.197M
BUY POINT: $121.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$139.65 Stop=$118.08
POSITION: TSO HD - Aug. $120c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tso.html
Play Date: 05/22/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$61.70; +0.85; optionable): Chip equipment. Splits 3:2 on 5-31-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Pre-Split. Tried to make the break higher Wednesday but gave it all back. That took the wind out of it for the rest of the week and it closed flat right on top of the 50 day EMA. Very quiet action as it holds a tight range. Splits mid-week. Want to be ready for the start of a run into that number. To recap: VSEA gapped massively higher in late April on its earnings report and split announcement, hitting 70 on that session. Though VSEA preceded this gap with a three week lateral move, the run higher ahead of that was solid and it needed a breather. It has spent May coming back to test that move and over the past week has tapped at 60 twice intraday, rebounding to close higher. Tuesday it showed the same action but posted a nice gain on a solid rise in volume back up to average. Money flow is rallying ahead of price. Looks as if VSEA is ready to give us a pre-split move here.
Volume: 865.262K Avg Volume: 1.547M
BUY POINT: $63.55 Volume=2M Target=$72.95 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: UES HL - Aug. $60c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/24/2007
GME (Gamestop--$35.79; +0.58; optionable): Video games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Held the 18 day EMA test from Thursday and bounced back Friday. Volume was lower so we held off moving in. Still looks solid and looking to move in as GME makes its play higher. To recap: GME announced some solid earnings this week but it had already put in a good move ahead of the number and the result was anticlimactic. It has come back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA (34.9) on the intraday low Thursday and rebounding modestly. Lower volume on the session so no dumping, just a pullback. This is testing the breakout from a 6 week lateral base GME broke higher from two weeks back. May come back to test the 18 day EMA once again, but want to be ready to step in as GME rebounds off of this test of near support.
Volume: 1.643M Avg Volume: 2.124M
BUY POINT: $35.57 Volume=3.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$34.62
POSITION: GME JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 05/24/2007
KWK (Quicksilver Resources--$43.50; +0.95; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwk.html
EARNINGS: 8-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Bounced off of the midweek selling after testing the 18 day EMA on the low. Low volume recovery, but KWK remains set up well to resume the break higher. To recap: KWK surged higher to start last week, breaking out from a 6 month ascending base. Strong volume as it made the move. It is coming back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA Thursday on the low on low, below average volume trade. Part of a larger 16 month cup base, and this is a good stepping stone base for a run back up toward the prior high near 50. Very solid earnings growth and a very nice technical pattern.
Volume: 605.6K Avg Volume: 853.227K
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=1.1M Target=$49.95 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: KWK IH - Sept. $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kwk.html
Play Date: 05/24/2007
NKE (Nike--$54.28; -0.19; optionable): Sports apparel, sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: 6-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. NKE sprinted higher last Monday, breaking out of a 12 week ascending base that formed to consolidate a nice fall breakout and run higher from a larger 21 month base. That was a long consolidation, setting NKE up for its next runs. The first is in the bank and now NKE is ready to give us another one as it comes off of this test on some rising trade. Sweet pattern and we are waiting for NKE to just do it and give us the continuing breakout move.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 3.107M
BUY POINT: $54.68 Volume=3.6M Target=$62.95 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: NKE JX - Oct. $52.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nke.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 05/24/2007
PRFT (Perficient--$20.69; +0.33; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-10-07
STATUS: Double top. Bounced with the market Friday, moving up to the 90 day MA (20.69) but on very low volume. Still looking for the rollover from here. To recap: Good breakout in early April and then a test of the 50 day EMA (20.95). It tried to continue the breakout but failed, falling through the 50 and 90 day MA last week on some heavy volume. It has rebounded to test, but could not get through the 90 day MA. Volume jacked on up well above average Thursday as PRFT tapped the 90 day MA on the high and then closed lower. Looking for a fall toward the 200 day SMA (18.12). Our initial target is more conservative, and a move to that level lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 175.531K Avg Volume: 395.486K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=400K Target=$18.86 Stop=$20.75
POSITION: UTJ SD - July $20p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prft.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
