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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; FCX; ICE; MA; WNR
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/29/2007
CMI (Cummins--$88.40; +0.66; optionable): Diesel and other engines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another look at CMI as it shows signs of life, i.e. starting to move with some better volume in its 4 week fade to test its strong late April move. It gapped higher on earnings, but it was already rolling along higher before that. Very nice, low volume the test shows very few sellers. Thursday it undercut the 18 day EMA (87.57) that it used for support, and then bounced right back. Nice shakeout action. Tuesday it was bouncing higher but faded as volume did not surge up with it. Still looks solid and ready to follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 1.377M Avg Volume: 2.5M
BUY POINT: $89.31 Volume=2.5M Target=$99.85 Stop=$86.95
POSITION: CDM IY - Sept. $87.50c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
Play Date: 05/29/2007
COP (ConocoPhillips--$75.35; -1.07; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice test of the 10 day EMA (74.60) in progress after the strong break higher two weeks back that took COP out of its 20 week base. Strong volume as it made the surge, then backing off on the test of the 10 day EMA (74.60) though volume was strong on the Thursday energy sector selling. Has recovered nicely to hold its ground and looking for some more volume to bounce in as it rebounds off this test.
Volume: 10.561M Avg Volume: 11.85M
BUY POINT: $76.65 Volume=12M Target=$84.95 Stop=$73.22
POSITION: COP HO - Aug. $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cop.html
Play Date: 05/29/2007
XRAY (Dentsply--$36.28; +0.34; optionable): Dental instruments and supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Long time since we had this old favorite on the report. It has now moved through an 8.5 month base, exploding higher to start May with a strong earnings report. After that strong 2-day surge it has tested since, coming back to the 18 day EMA (35.77) where it found some buyers supporting it. Strong money flow is holding up as it makes this test. Volume has started to jump up the past week and looking for more of that strong trade as XRAY breaks higher and continues its breakout move. Love playing these first tests of a breakout as they lead to big gains as the stock rebounds.
Volume: 572.3K Avg Volume: 795K
BUY POINT: $36.78 Volume=950K Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.38
POSITION: XEQ JG - Oct. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching date. More good news as BA gets another order.
BHI: Testing the 18 day EMA. Want to see volume off of this test.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07. Still trying to find the floor on this test. 50 day EMA looks in the plan.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching the date and wondering if it can hold the 50 day EMA.
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Researching the date
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07. Taking off on strong volume.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
GVA: Researching date. Faded back to the 10 day EMA on rising volume.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date.
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Managed to recover the 18 day EMA though volume has faded well below average on the move.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07. Holding the 10 day EMA after the gap higher.
RIMM: Early June
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/29/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$99.73; +1.13; optionable): Aerospace
BACKROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-9-02 at $108
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ATK cleared an 11 week cup to start May, surging on very strong volume to a new all-time high. After a solid 10 point run it is testing that break, coming back to the 18 day EMA (98.38) to end last week. It sold back last Thursday with the market, but volume was very low and it held near support. Volume surged back up Tuesday as ATK bounced from the 18 day EMA. Excellent money flow and set to make yet another new high.
Volume: 562.4K Avg Volume: 405K
BUY POINT: $100.88 Volume=500K Target=$113.50 Stop=$97.87
POSITION: ATK HS - Aug. $95c (75 delta) or ATK HT - Aug. $100c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/21/2007
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$67.32; +0.56; optionable): Drag lines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally at the 10 day EMA, continuing its 3 week lateral consolidation from the strong April breakout. Tried the move Tuesday but volume was not there. Still set and still strong money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 507.714K Avg Volume: 842.094K
BUY POINT: $68.11 Volume=1M Target=$79.95 Stop=$64.48
POSITION: HBU JN - Oct. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$41.65; +0.54; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume started to rally Tuesday as GES tries to make a higher low over the 10 day EMA (41.12) in its 13 week base. Excellent flat base that is consolidating the strong run to end 2006. Nice. Just needs to show the upside volume on the breakout.
Volume: 984.162K Avg Volume: 1.171M
BUY POINT: $42.68 Volume=2M Target=$49.65 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: GES IV - Sept. $42.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
Play Date: 05/24/2007
GME (Gamestop--$36.02; +0.23; optionable): Video games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher Tuesday with some stronger volume approaching average. Looking very solid here. To recap: GME announced some solid earnings this week but it had already put in a good move ahead of the number and the result was anticlimactic. It has come back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA (35.03). This is testing the breakout from a 6 week lateral base GME broke higher from two weeks back. May come back to test the 18 day EMA once again, but want to be ready to step in as GME rebounds off of this test of near support.
Volume: 2.168M Avg Volume: 2.279M
BUY POINT: New: $36.32 (orig. $35.57) Volume=3.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$34.62
POSITION: GME JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 05/24/2007
KWK (Quicksilver Resources--$43.35; -0.15; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwk.html
EARNINGS: 8-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA on very low volume as KWK sets up for the next break higher. Looking good. To recap: KWK surged higher to start last week, breaking out from a 6 month ascending base. Strong volume as it made the move. It is coming back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA Thursday on the low on low, below average volume trade. Part of a larger 16 month cup base, and this is a good stepping stone base for a run back up toward the prior high near 50. Very solid earnings growth and a very nice technical pattern.
Volume: 446.393K Avg Volume: 881.637K
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=1.1M Target=$49.95 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: KWK IH - Sept. $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kwk.html
Play Date: 05/24/2007
NKE (Nike--$54.72; +0.44; optionable): Sports apparel, sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped above average Tuesday as NKE tried to make the break higher but closed well off the session high. Still looks very good for the break higher, and if it gets some good volume again as it continues higher it is a buy. To recap: NKE broke higher Monday, moving out of a 12 week ascending base on some solid, above average volume. The move took NKE to a new all-time high and it is testing on lower volume.
Volume: 3.172M Avg Volume: 3.083M
BUY POINT: On a continued move from here (orig. $54.68) Volume=3.6M Target=$62.95 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: NKE JX - Oct. $52.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nke.html
Play Date: 05/14/2007
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$51.36; +0.44; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume is again moving higher as VMSI bumps up against a breakout to resume the breakout. Money flow is leading higher. Looks nice. To recap: VMSI continues the lateral test after that April run higher to 52. It has tested this month, holding the 18 day EMA (49.75) on the lows. Despite the selling in the market last Thursday, VMSI remains poised to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 308.096K Avg Volume: 377.077K
BUY POINT: $51.55 (orig. $50.21) Volume=500K Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.68
POSITION: UMU IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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