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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALXN; BA; BCSI; BIDU; BIIB; BTU; BUCY; CROX; DO; ESV; FCX; MA; MR; OIH; PXP; RIG; SWN; UAPH; WNR; XTO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/30/2007
BMC (BMC Software--$31.85; +0.23; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume the past three sessions as BMC tested the 200 day SMA (30.92) and held, bouncing back up Wednesday. It is bumping up against the 90 day MA (32), and we are looking for BMC to blow through that on more strong trade to show us the buyers are still there and can give us the entry point for a run up to the prior highs as our first target.
Volume: 3.927M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $32.32 Volume=2M Target=$38.88 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: BMC HF - Aug. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmc.html
Play Date: 05/30/2007
COH (Coach--$51.15; +2.04; optionable): Handbags, accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged Wednesday as COH started the breakout from a short 6 week pattern that formed to give the stock a rest after its July to April run. Quite the impressive move and it needed a breather to shakeout and set up the next run. Because COH is so strong, this short base looks to be adequate. A strong stock will make the run up the 18 day EMA and then after 4 to 5 bounces it needs a deeper test. This pattern is giving it a nice test to shakeout some fluff. The strong volume break higher indicates it is ready.
Volume: 6.077M Avg Volume: 3.4M
BUY POINT: $51.57 Volume=3.7M Target=$53.50 Stop=$49.88
POSITION: COH HJ - Aug. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/coh.html
Play Date: 05/30/2007
CRM (Salesforce.com--$48.72; +2.82; optionable): Management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume Wednesday as CRM blew past the handle high in its 14 week base that has set CRM up beautifully for a breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent price/volume action in the base has set up the breakout. Like that strong volume.
Volume: 3.87M Avg Volume: 1.6M
BUY POINT: $49.05 Volume=2M Target=$56.50 Stop=$47.04
POSITION: CRM KJ - Nov. $50c (50 delta) or CRM HI - Aug. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crm.html
Play Date: 05/30/2007
TSO (Tesoro Petroleum--$62.00; +2.18; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tso.html
STATUS: Flat base. TSO split Wednesday, and it posted a solid gain on solid volume. Indeed, this lower price is bringing in more buyers, something we are seeing quite a bit now that stocks have made such strong runs. Looking to jump in as TSO continues higher on the breakout to a new high.
Volume: 4.572M Avg Volume: 3.251M
BUY POINT: $62.25 Volume=3.5M Target=$71.65 Stop=$58.88
POSITION: TSO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tso.html
Play Date: 05/30/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$102.93; +0.57; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Looking for one more good run from VIP to cap a strong run over the past 10 months. It has set up this 10 week base as it let the 50 day EMA (97.50) rise to catch up with it. Looks ripe. Just need to see the high volume as it makes its break higher.
Volume: 891.2K Avg Volume: 1.1M
BUY POINT: $103.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$119.50 Stop=$99.88
POSITION: VIQ JA - Oct. $105c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vip.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/29/2007
CMI (Cummins--$89.97; +1.57; optionable): Diesel and other engines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Good price move but volume was not there on Wednesday. Looks ready but needs some more volume as it continues higher. To recap: Taking another look at CMI as it shows signs of life, i.e. starting to move with some better volume in its 4 week fade to test its strong late April move. It gapped higher on earnings, but it was already rolling along higher before that. Very nice, low volume the test shows very few sellers. Thursday it undercut the 18 day EMA that it used for support, and then bounced right back. Nice shakeout action. Tuesday it was bouncing higher but faded as volume did not surge up with it. Still looks solid and ready to follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 1.313M Avg Volume: 2.254M
BUY POINT: On a further move higher that shows more volume (orig. $89.31) Volume=2.5M Target=$99.85 Stop=$86.95
POSITION: CDM IY - Sept. $87.50c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmi.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$95.00; +2.10; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Making its second test of the 10 day EMA and then bouncing Wednesday on rising but still below average volume. Looking for a bit more trade as it continues higher and moves through the highs hit just a week back. It is there now.
Volume: 1.871M Avg Volume: 2.364M
BUY POINT: On a move through 95 on strong volume (orig. $94.22) Volume=3.5M Target=$109.95 Stop=$92.21
POSITION: DO IS - Sept. $95c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/do.html
Play Date: 05/24/2007
GME (Gamestop--$36.42; +0.40; optionable): Video games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Bounced Wednesday but volume faded. Still looking for this bounce to continue but want a bit more volume. To recap: GME announced some solid earnings this week but it had already put in a good move ahead of the number and the result was anticlimactic. It has come back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA (34.81) on the intraday low Thursday and rebounding modestly. Lower volume on the session so no dumping, just a pullback. This is testing the breakout from a 6 week lateral base GME broke higher from two weeks back. May come back to test the 18 day EMA once again, but want to be ready to step in as GME rebounds off of this test of near support.
Volume: 1.734M Avg Volume: 2.289M
BUY POINT: On some more volume (orig. $35.57) Volume=3.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$34.62
POSITION: GME JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gme.html
Play Date: 05/21/2007
HC (Hanover Compressor--$24.23; +0.69; optionable): Machine tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved above average as HC bounced off the 18 day EMA test as it tested the strong move higher from the prior week. Good solid test, good bounce. Now looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.349M Avg Volume: 1.237M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher on solid trade (orig. $23.55) Volume=1.3M Target=$28.95 Stop=$22.57
POSITION: HC IX - Sept. $22.50c (65 delta, 101 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hc.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
LYO (Lyondell Chemical--$36.89; +0.36; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lyo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Second test of the strong breakout. Bounced off the 18 day EMA on Wednesday and looks ready to follow that strong money flow higher. Very nice breakout, very nice test. Looks ready.
Volume: 3.811M Avg Volume: 3.243M
BUY POINT: $37.45 Volume=5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.42
POSITION: LYO IG - Sept. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lyo.html
Play Date: 05/23/2007
OMNI (Omni Energy Svc.--$10.75; -0.01; optionable): Oil and gas services in Gulf of Mexico (seismic, environmental services, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omni.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice tight doji with tail Wednesday looks to have completed the higher low over the 18 day EMA. Money flow is surging and it looks ready to follow. To recap: OMNI is in a big 11 month triangle. It shot higher on 5-17 when it raised its guidance. That took it to the December high at 11.75ish, roughly the top of the pattern. Strong volume on that move and then a low volume side-step Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday OMNI was moving back up with a sharp gain on a jump in volume back above average. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and OMNI is ready to make the break from this nice accumulation pattern.
Volume: 482.949K Avg Volume: 499.714K
BUY POINT: $11.69 Volume=750K Target=$14.00 Stop=$10.98
POSITION: QOC HB - Aug. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omni.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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