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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; CMI; GME; GES; HURN; MA; NKE
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/31/2007
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$85.61; +0.29; optionable): Restaurants. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. BWLD broke sharply higher to start May on its announcement and is now making the second test of the 10 day EMA (84.62) after that breakout move. A strong stock will make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day EMA as it runs higher from its breakout before it comes back toward the 50 day EMA to take a breather. Nice pair of dojis on the candlestick chart the past two sessions as BWLD tests the last strong bounce higher and sets up for the next.
Volume: 350.166K Avg Volume: 374.122K
BUY POINT: $86.25 Volume=550K Target=$99.85 Stop=$84.15
POSITION: BQU GP - July $80c (73 delta) or BQU IQ - Sept. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwld.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CERN (Cerner--$56.81; -0.30; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cern.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CERN surged higher last week, breaking free from a short 6 week base that consolidated the early February breakout from a large 14 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Big jump on the resumption of the breakout move and now a nice, easy, lower volume test of the 10 day EMA (56.41) that has set up the next move. Volume jumped back well above average Thursday, indicating it is ready to start the move again. Just want to see it log the move to the buy point and we move in.
Volume: 1.438M Avg Volume: 844.603K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.65
POSITION: CQN IY - Sept. $57.50c (50 delta, 256 OI) or CQN IK - Sept. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cern.html
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CMC (Commercial Metals--$35.15; -0.26; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
EARNINGS: 3-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CMC is testing the March breakout and run from its 15 week base. It has formed something of a short double bottom the past month as the 50 day EMA (33.12) ran up to catch it. Last week it tapped at that support and bounced right back, forming the right leg to the double bottom. Great volume Wednesday as it broke higher, and looking for more solid trade as it makes the next break to a new high. Still early in the breakout run and plenty of upside to go to work for us.
Volume: 1.384M Avg Volume: 1.373M
BUY POINT: $35.78 Volume=1.8M Target=$41.45 Stop=$34.08
POSITION: CMC IG - Sept. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmc.html
Play Date: 05/31/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$29.19; -0.23; optionable): High end positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Taking another look at TRMB as it has set up a nice bounce higher to continue the breakout move. It broke sharply higher in early May after earnings, gapping out of a 13 week cup with handle base. Nice low volume test with a 'get ready' above average volume spike Tuesday as TRMB bounced off support. Strong money flow is holding up nicely as TRMB tests. Volume moved up to average Thursday; looking for stronger volume as it makes the break higher and moves back up through the buy point.
Volume: 603.064K Avg Volume: 552.722K
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=650K Target=$34.89 Stop=$28.69
POSITION: TUH HY - Aug. $27.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATK: Tentatively forecast for early August.
BA: Researching date.
BHI: Testing the 18 day EMA. Want to see volume off of this test.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching the date and wondering if it can hold the 50 day EMA.
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Researching the date
COH: Forecast early August.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
DLTR: Forecast 5-30-07. Up and down session but no word on a split.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
GVA: Researching date. Faded back to the 10 day EMA on rising volume.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Excellent recovery on strong volume.
MA: Researching the next date.
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Huge volume Thursday.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07. Getting some volume as it moves up off the 10 day EMA
RIMM: Early June
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June.
VIP: Researching date. Hard to read Russian.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CHAP (Chaparral Steel Company--$73.18; -0.50; optionable): Steel and iron
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-13-06 at $66.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chap.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-20-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. CHAP has moved laterally the past 5 weeks on the 18 day EMA (72.08), consolidating the 7 week run from its mid-March breakout from a 3 month ascending base. Very nice, mostly lower volume lateral test has set up the next move. Money flow is running higher ahead of price even during this consolidation, and we are looking for CHAP to strap up and start the next run.
Volume: 651.362K Avg Volume: 817.627K
BUY POINT: $74.45 Volume=1M Target=$85.95 Stop=$71.88
POSITION: ZHQ JO - Oct. $75c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chap.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CHE (Chemed--$67.00; +0.02; optionable): Home health care
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-14-05 at $76.50
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/che.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Looking at a few more positions on CHE as it tests the strong breakout and run from its year long cup with handle base. Made us some great money on that run and now it is set up after this three week lateral move to continue the run. Looking for a strong volume move higher out of this range to give us a new buy point.
Volume: 457.5K Avg Volume: 430.172K
BUY POINT: $67.92 Volume=600K Target=$77.95 Stop=$64.94
POSITION: CHE IM - Sept. $65c (66 delta, 70 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/che.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/30/2007
COH (Coach--$51.36; +0.21; optionable): Handbags, accessories
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-25-05 at $52.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Modest low volume move Thursday as COH rested after the strong Wednesday move. Looking for it to continue this move to give us the buy. To recap: Volume surged Wednesday as COH started the breakout from a short 6 week pattern that formed to give the stock a rest after its July to April run. Quite the impressive move and it needed a breather to shakeout and set up the next run. Because COH is so strong, this short base looks to be adequate. A strong stock will make the run up the 18 day EMA and then after 4 to 5 bounces it needs a deeper test. This pattern is giving it a nice test to shakeout some fluff. The strong volume break higher indicates it is ready.
Volume: 3.042M Avg Volume: 3.661M
BUY POINT: $51.57 Volume=3.7M Target=$53.50 Stop=$49.88
POSITION: COH HJ - Aug. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$76.41; +0.90; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-16-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the 18 day EMA (75.31) as CTRP tests that strong mid-May breakout from its 14 week cup with handle base. Solid break on strong volume, nice low volume test. Just have to be patient and let it show the volume once more as it moves back up.
Volume: 235.717K Avg Volume: 20.919M
BUY POINT: $76.55 Volume=425K Target=$89.95 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: QCT IO - Sept. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 05/30/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$102.81; -0.12; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Tried to start the move Thursday but volume was lagging all session and those tend to fail. It faded back to flat by the close, but is still working nicely on the base, setting up for the breakout and next run. To recap: Looking for one more good run from VIP to cap a strong run over the past 10 months. It has set up this 10 week base as it let the 50 day EMA (97.50) rise to catch up with it. Looks ripe. Just need to see the high volume as it makes its break higher.
Volume: 621.7K Avg Volume: 1.202M
BUY POINT: $103.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$119.50 Stop=$99.88
POSITION: VIQ JA - Oct. $105c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/24/2007
KWK (Quicksilver Resources--$44.49; -0.02; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwk.html
EARNINGS: 8-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved up to average Thursday but KWK could not make the break, showing a doji after the strong price move Wednesday. Still set up to make the move. To recap: KWK surged higher to start last week, breaking out from a 6 month ascending base. Strong volume as it made the move. It is coming back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA Thursday on the low on low, below average volume trade. Part of a larger 16 month cup base, and this is a good stepping stone base for a run back up toward the prior high near 50. Very solid earnings growth and a very nice technical pattern.
Volume: 861.21K Avg Volume: 834.694K
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=1.1M Target=$49.95 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: KWK IH - Sept. $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kwk.html
Play Date: 05/29/2007
XRAY (Dentsply--$36.14; +0.15; optionable): Dental instruments and supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Money flow continues running higher as XRAY tests the 18 day EMA. Volume moved above average. Ready to make the break higher at any point. To recap: Long time since we had this old favorite on the report. It has now moved through an 8.5 month base, exploding higher to start May with a strong earnings report. After that strong 2-day surge it has tested since, coming back to the 18 day EMA (35.83) where it found some buyers supporting it. Strong money flow is holding up as it makes this test. Volume has started to jump up the past week and looking for more of that strong trade as XRAY breaks higher and continues its breakout move. Love playing these first tests of a breakout as they lead to big gains as the stock rebounds.
Volume: 854.473K Avg Volume: 771.962K
BUY POINT: $36.78 Volume=950K Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.38
POSITION: XEQ JG - Oct. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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