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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BIDU; CCJ; CRZO; DO; DXPE; GSF; ICE; IOC; OIH; OMNI; RIG; RIMM; SLB; SWN; WNR; WOOF; XTO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/04/2007
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$44.58; +0.05; optionable): Software (Acrobat Reader, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
EARNINGS: 6-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base breakout. ADBE gapped higher Thursday on strong volume after some positive analyst comments. It is now testing, moving laterally on very low, below average volume. Solid 7 month base that formed around the 50 day EMA (42.19) as support set up a run higher. Now that it has made the break we just need to see a resumption of the move on rising trade to give us the entry point. Always a leader in the field.
Volume: 4.133M Avg Volume: 6.251M
BUY POINT: $44.95 Volume=700K Target=$51.85 Stop=$43.21
POSITION: AEQ JV - Oct. $42.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adbe.html
Play Date: 06/04/2007
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$51.95; +2.30; optionable): Independent natural gas exploration and production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. The gas pocket burst Monday and gas stocks were spewing higher. APC broke higher in mid-May from a 6 month double bottom with handle base. The breakout took it up to 50, the December and September highs. There it stalled and tested near support then broke higher Monday on very strong, above average volume. This base is part of a larger pattern with highs up near 57. We are looking for a solid surge up to the target as our initial profit point. We will evaluate it then, but it looks as if APC is ready to move higher again after a nice, long base.
Volume: 7.488M Avg Volume: 5.494M
BUY POINT: $52.25 Volume=5.8M Target=$58.95 Stop=$49.98
POSITION: APC KJ - Nov. $50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apc.html
Play Date: 06/04/2007
ARRS (Arris Group--$16.28; -0.05; optionable): Telecom communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base breakout. ARRS blasted higher Thursday, breaking out from a solid 13 week base on strong, above average volume. It is making a test, but it is not giving up much ground as it holds above the base closing high at 16. A leading stock in the market with super fundamentals growth rates to go along with its excellent technical position. Strong 6 to 2 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a heck of a lot of buying. After this test we look for a bounce back up on rising trade. May take a day or two to make the test, but looking sweet.
Volume: 2.118M Avg Volume: 2.292M
BUY POINT: $16.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.74
POSITION: AQC KC - Nov. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arrs.html
Play Date: 06/04/2007
TS (Tenaris--$49.80; -0.05; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ts.html
EARNINGS: 8-3-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong break higher Thursday as TS gapped above the 'hump' in its 23 week base. After that break higher it has slid laterally the past two sessions on lower volume, forming something of a handle to its pattern. Nicely formed base that used the 200 day SMA on the two legs, solid break over the hump. Strong money flow is shooting higher ahead of price. Ready to move in as TS turns 50. Very nice.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 2.025M
BUY POINT: $50.11 Volume=2.5M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: TSW IJ - Sept. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ts.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 06/04/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$41.96; -0.09; optionable): Security and performance enhancing solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-29-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Huge surge out of the 8 week base last week and now a test back toward the 10 day EMA (41.11). This short base is the handle to a large, 20 month cup with handle base. Nice set up to the next break higher. Love those first breakout tests; once the stock starts back up on volume that shows the big money wants even more positions at this higher price. Have to like that.
Volume: 460.012K Avg Volume: 396.837K
BUY POINT: $42.27 Volume=450K Target=$48.65 Stop=$40.95
POSITION: IYU JH - Oct. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcsi.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/30/2007
COH (Coach--$51.55; +0.21; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moved the buy point to accommodate the formation of the handle to its 6 week base. Formed a reverse head and shoulders bottom in May and broke higher. This test is setting up the next move; like how it is holding the gains with no give back. Looking for the low volume to surge as COH as moves up through the resistance at 52ish.
Volume: 2.638M Avg Volume: 3.61M
BUY POINT: $52.08 Volume=3.7M Target=$62.50 Stop=$49.95
POSITION: COH HJ - Aug. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/coh.html
Play Date: 06/02/2007
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$83.78; +0.78; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on 6-25-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume moved up toward average as GILD broke higher toward the top of its 6 week range. Looking quite nice here as it rallies toward the breakout. To recap: GILD continues to set up nicely in its 6 week lateral trading range that is working along the 18 day EMA (82.56), holding that near support on mostly low volume. Setting up nicely and showing some rising volume last week as GILD moved up off a test toward the 50 day EMA on an intraday low. Money flow remains strong, and with that volume starting up we are on watch this week for the breakout from this range.
Volume: 3.489M Avg Volume: 4.149M
BUY POINT: $84.38 Volume=6.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$81.89
POSITION: GDQ HQ - Aug. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gild.html
Play Date: 06/02/2007
JADE (LJ Intl.--$11.80; -0.10; optionable): Design, manufacture and distribution of fine jewelry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji Monday on low volume as JADE tapped the 18 day EMA (11.59) on the low and rebounded to flat. Nice shakeout. Just needs to show the jewels on the move up. To recap: JADE is working toward the breakout from a 13 week base that is consolidating the strong breakout and run from January. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying during the base, and that sets up the breakout move. Good price/volume action as well with several upside volume spikes during the base is setting up the breakout well. Just has to show the volume on the break higher.
Volume: 608.46K Avg Volume: 974.249K
BUY POINT: $12.77 Volume=1.4M Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.88
POSITION: UOD JV - Oct. $12.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jade.html
Play Date: 06/02/2007
KNOL (Knology, Inc.--$18.82; +0.21; no options): Interactive broadband service in southeast US
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knol.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its short base, preparing to follow money flow higher. Volume is edging up as well. Getting ready. To recap: Yes it is a bit small to label it as such being just 4 weeks old, but that is what KNOL has set up after that strong run January to early May that made us some solid coin. It has taken a blow, coming back and using near support at the 18 day EMA (18.34) as support, and has held, showing its strength. Solid volume Wednesday as it jumped higher off the lateral support and then tested to end the week, showing a tight doji over the 10 day EMA. Looking for this short pattern to yield a breakout and the start of another run higher.
Volume: 129.14K Avg Volume: 159.502K
BUY POINT: $19.21 Volume=240K Target=$22.95 Stop=$18.08
POSITION: - Stock (no options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/knol.html
Play Date: 06/02/2007
NUE (Nucor--$68.36; -0.89; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
STATUS: Ascending base breakout. Modest test back on Monday with lower, below average volume as NUE sets up to continue the break higher from its base. A lot of steel looks strong here and NUE is one of the tops in the sector. To recap: Volume jumped to end last week as NUE made a run off a higher low in its 24 week base and started the breakout move. Volume was lower Friday, but it was still average and followed two solid above average sessions. Nice break in progress and ready to move in as it continues. It may show some weakness to start the week, and frankly that is all the better if it comes back near 68 and rebounds from there. Either way it looks solid as it breaks to a new high.
Volume: 2.844M Avg Volume: 3.564M
BUY POINT: $69.52 Volume=4.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$66.68
POSITION: NUE JN - Oct. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nue.html
Play Date: 05/31/2007
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$14.13; +0.04; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice hold at the 10 day EMA on low volume; just about finished with the handle to its sweet base. Just waiting for the volume to return. To recap: After a nice low volume test the past week to form the handle to its 17 week base, volume jumped well above average Thursday, the best trade in over a month. Nice set up to a 6.5 year new high. SVNT has made us some solid money in the past on its runs, and it is quietly setting up to do the same.
Volume: 496.826K Avg Volume: 733.149K
BUY POINT: $14.80 Volume=110K Target=$17.95 Stop=$13.85
POSITION: UVP IV - Sept. $12.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Play Date: 05/31/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$29.40; +0.15; optionable): High end positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume was lower but still well above average as TRMB tried the 10 and 18 day EMA on the session highs and backed off to close basically flat. Still looking solid for the resumption of the break higher. To recap: Taking another look at TRMB as it has set up a nice bounce higher to continue the breakout move. It broke sharply higher in early May after earnings, gapping out of a 13 week cup with handle base. Nice low volume test with a 'get ready' above average volume spike Tuesday as TRMB bounced off support. Strong money flow is holding up nicely as TRMB tests. Volume moved up to average Thursday; looking for stronger volume as it makes the break higher and moves back up through the buy point.
Volume: 931.036K Avg Volume: 550.823K
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=650K Target=$34.89 Stop=$28.69
POSITION: TUH HY - Aug. $27.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trmb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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