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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; CMI; CROX; SU
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/05/2007
FISV (Fiserv--$57.65; -0.52; optionable): Transaction processing, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. FISV blasted out from a 12 week double bottom of sorts last Wednesday, surging on very strong volume to a new all-time high. It is making a test the past three days, coming back to test the move, showing a doji above the 10 day EMA (56.69) Tuesday on lower volume. Money flow is very strong and after this test FISV is ready to resume the breakout move. Just waiting for a bounce on continued solid volume.
Volume: 2.081M Avg Volume: 1.42M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=2.1M Target=$66.75 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: FQV IK - Sept. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fisv.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$63.94; -0.14; optionable): GPS devices for the consumer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We watched GRMN form an 11 month ascending triangle and then watched it break right out last week on strong volume. Gee, made a lot of money on that move! It is now testing back on much lower, below average volume, refusing to give up much ground. The 10 day EMA (62.30) is rising to meet it; may test that support level before it resumes the breakout, but with the modest pullback we want to be ready to move in if it continues higher from here. Nice.
Volume: 1.44M Avg Volume: 1.814M
BUY POINT: From the Tuesday close: $64.55; On a test of 62.30, 62.75 on the rebound Volume=2M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: GQR JM - Oct. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
RS (Reliance Steel--$61.80; -0.24; optionable): Metals processing and products distributing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-18-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. RS broke higher from an 11 month cup with handle base in late March and rallied up to the current 6 week lateral move. The 10 and 18 day EMA (60.93) have caught up with the lateral move. Good upside volume Friday (the first in three weeks) and now a low volume test back to the 10 day EMA, showing a doji Tuesday. Metals remain a hit area in the market, and RS has set up for the next move. Want to see the volume ratchet up as it moves off this test of near support.
Volume: 784.51K Avg Volume: 1.246M
BUY POINT: $62.95 Volume=1.9M Target=$72.50 Stop=$60.78
POSITION: RS IL - Sept. $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rs.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATK: Tentatively forecast for early August.
BA: Researching date. Nice test of the 10 day EMA
BHI: Nice break higher Monday
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07.
CHAP: Forecast 2nd week of July
CHE: Forecast mid-June
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching the date. Gapped higher but no volume to drive it higher.
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Enjoying the continued ride higher.
COH: Forecast early August. Dumped back to the 50 day SMA
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
GVA: Researching date. Holding the 10 day EMA.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date. Nice intraday test of the 10 day EMA
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Still working higher.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07
RIMM: Early June
SSYS: Forecast third week of July
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June.
VIP: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/05/2007
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$62.30; -0.14; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UPL is working on a 5 week handle to a 13 month base, moving laterally along the 18 day EMA (61.43) as it sets up for a breakout move. Some solid Monday upside volume shows some renewed buying. Looking for this to take it out of the base, but we have to wait for it to give us a breakout move.
Volume: 986K Avg Volume: 975.563K
BUY POINT: $63.89 Volume=1.5M Target=$73.50 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: UPL IL - Sept. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
VMC (Vulcan Materials--$120.23; -1.13; optionable): Metal coating, building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Flat base. VMC is making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (119.17), just below the peaks in a 13 week flat base formed over the 50 day EMA (116.53). This base consolidates a strong January through February run from the breakout from a sweet 9 month cup with handle. Volume has turned higher on the upside sessions in the last part of the base, showing some accumulation as it makes that higher low. It has based out well, and just being patient and waiting for it to show the break higher on strong trade.
Volume: 743K Avg Volume: 994.403K
BUY POINT: $122.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$143.95 Stop=$118.11
POSITION: VMC HD - Aug. $120c (67 delta) or VMC KE - Nov. $125c (50 delta, 55 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmc.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CHAP (Chaparral Steel Company--$73.36; -0.38; optionable): Steel and iron
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-13-06 at $66.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chap.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-20-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume jumped Tuesday as CHAP tried the breakout but faded back. Nice set up and just needs to make the move stick. To recap: CHAP has moved laterally the past 5 weeks on the 18 day EMA (72.08), consolidating the 7 week run from its mid-March breakout from a 3 month ascending base. Very nice, mostly lower volume lateral test has set up the next move. Money flow is running higher ahead of price even during this consolidation, and we are looking for CHAP to strap up and start the next run.
Volume: 1.189M Avg Volume: 802.806K
BUY POINT: $74.45 Volume=1M Target=$85.95 Stop=$71.88
POSITION: ZHQ JO - Oct. $75c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chap.html
Play Date: 05/26/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$76.00; +1.11; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-16-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved up just ahead of average Tuesday as CTRP moved off the 18 day EMA. Looking promising for the break higher. To recap: Strong mid-May breakout from its 14 week cup with handle base. Solid break on strong volume, nice low volume test. Just have to be patient and let it show the volume once more as it moves back up.
Volume: 405.797K Avg Volume: 20.919M
BUY POINT: $76.55 Volume=425K Target=$89.95 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: QCT IO - Sept. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/02/2007
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$83.29; -0.49; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on 6-25-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still holding fine and liked how it tested lower Tuesday and then rebounded to cut its losses. Could go at any time. To recap: GILD continues to set up nicely in its 6 week lateral trading range that is working along the 18 day EMA (82.42), holding that near support on mostly low volume. Setting up nicely and showing some rising volume last week as GILD moved up off a test toward the 50 day EMA on an intraday low. Money flow remains strong, and with that volume starting up we are on watch this week for the breakout from this range.
Volume: 3.224M Avg Volume: 4.076M
BUY POINT: $84.38 Volume=6.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$81.89
POSITION: GDQ HQ - Aug. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/04/2007
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$44.34; -0.24; optionable): Software (Acrobat Reader, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
EARNINGS: 6-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base breakout. Nice test underway, showing a tight doji with tail Tuesday as ADBE taps the prior highs and then rebounded to the close. Excellent action and is primed to move. To recap: ADBE gapped higher last Thursday on strong volume after some positive analyst comments. It is now testing, moving laterally on very low, below average volume. Solid 7 month base that formed around the 50 day EMA (42.19) as support set up a run higher. Now that it has made the break we just need to see a resumption of the move on rising trade to give us the entry point. Always a leader in the field.
Volume: 4.517M Avg Volume: 6.251M
BUY POINT: $44.95 Volume=700K Target=$51.85 Stop=$43.21
POSITION: AEQ JV - Oct. $42.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adbe.html
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CERN (Cerner--$56.25; -0.24; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cern.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji on low volume Tuesday as CERN is locked and loaded to continue the breakout move. Has to show us the beef before we move. To recap: CERN surged higher last week, breaking free from a short 6 week base that consolidated the early February breakout from a large 14 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Big jump on the resumption of the breakout move and now a nice, easy, lower volume test of the 10 and 18 day EMA that has set up the next move. Volume jumped back well above average last Thursday, indicating it is ready to start the move again. Just want to see it log the move to the buy point and we move in.
Volume: 467.536K Avg Volume: 830.562K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.65
POSITION: CQN IY - Sept. $57.50c (50 delta, 256 OI) or CQN IK - Sept. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cern.html
Play Date: 06/02/2007
NUE (Nucor--$67.71; -0.65; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
STATUS: Ascending base breakout. Volume moved up to average as NUE showed a doji Tuesday as it tests the breakout from Friday. Ready to move in as it continues the break higher. To recap: Volume jumped to end last week as NUE made a run off a higher low in its 24 week base and started the breakout move. Showing that weakness to start the week we anticipated in the weekend report and is set to make the move.
Volume: 3.397M Avg Volume: 3.515M
BUY POINT: $69.52 Volume=4.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$66.68
POSITION: NUE JN - Oct. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nue.html
Play Date: 06/04/2007
TS (Tenaris--$49.47; -0.33; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ts.html
EARNINGS: 8-3-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume remains average as TS works laterally, still forming the handle after moving back above the 'hump' in the pattern at the April high. Still may take another couple of sessions to finish the handle. To recap: Strong break higher last Thursday as TS gapped above the 'hump' in its 23 week base. After that break higher it has slid laterally the past two sessions on lower volume, forming something of a handle to its pattern. Nicely formed base that used the 200 day SMA on the two legs, solid break over the hump. Strong money flow is shooting higher ahead of price. Ready to move in as TS turns 50. Very nice.
Volume: 2.237M Avg Volume: 2.025M
BUY POINT: $50.11 Volume=2.5M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: TSW IJ - Sept. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ts.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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