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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ATHR; OCR; PRFT; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BRY (Berry Petroleum--$37.13; -0.68; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bry.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. BRY is making its second test of the 10 day EMA (36.93) following its mid-May breakout from a 14 month cup with handle base of sorts. Nice volume on the breakout and off of the first test. Volume was strong Monday and Tuesday as BRY rallied higher again and it is still high on this pullback, but the price action is excellent, holding above the 10 day EMA (36.93) on the close. Looking for BRY to hold near this support and then resume the move. That is when we move in.
Volume: 1.171M Avg Volume: 451.348K
BUY POINT: $37.73 Volume=700K Target=$43.45 Stop=$36.57
POSITION: BRY KG - Nov. $35c (68 delta, 107 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bry.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
CX (Cemex SA--$38.13; -1.07; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was well above average Thursday as CX came back to test the late May breakout from its 12 week cup with handle base (though a rather jagged cup). That high volume shows some dumping, but it showed good action, reaching down toward the 18 day EMA and then rebounding to hold above the late February high that marks the point the base started to form. Thus despite the 'baby out with the bath water' selling Thursday, CX' action was solid. It may come back a bit more to test the 18 day EMA (37.22) before it is ready, but have to like this action in a very weak tape.
Volume: 5.62M Avg Volume: 3.748M
BUY POINT: $38.57 Volume=4.5M Target=$44.85 Stop=$37.05
POSITION: CX JG - Oct. $35c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cx.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
ICON (Iconix Brand Group--$21.97; -0.38; optionable): Multiple consumer apparel brands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ICON is forming the handle to a 14 week base, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low (21.72) and then bouncing to cut some losses. Volume was up, but overall trade on this short pullback is modest and the price action is contained and orderly. Looking for ICON to finish this test and then deliver the upside breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.318M Avg Volume: 956.394K
BUY POINT: $22.47 Volume=1.4M Target=$25.95 Stop=$21.29
POSITION: QIA KX - Nov. $22.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/icon.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
AFFX (Affymetrix--$25.00; -0.71; optionable): Genetics analysis equipment for the life sciences and healthcare markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/affx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume moved up above average Thursday as AFFX broke below the 200 day SMA (25.21), starting the breakdown in its 4 month distribution base. Low volume peak in April that gave way to a gap lower. Very weak and when a stock moves through the 200 day SMA on rising trade that shows the big money is selling it. Looking to ride it lower. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 1.86M Avg Volume: 1.472M
BUY POINT: $24.82 Volume=1.5M Target=$23.25 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: FIQ SE - July $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/affx.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BIG (Big Lots--$30.00; -1.08; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Put. Big gapped higher on its earnings but then reversed course on high volume. It tried to breakout from its 9 week base but it failed. It tried to set up above the 90 day SMA (30.40) but Thursday it broke below that level. There is a gap higher from March, and the inability to hold a gain on earnings indicates it is going to fill that gap down at 26ish. Our initial target is much more conservative, but if it is selling we will let it fade. A move to the target lands a 43% gain.
Volume: 3.02M Avg Volume: 2.514M
BUY POINT: $29.86 Volume=3M Target=$27.80 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: BIG SF - July $30p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/big.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
FORM (Formfactor--$40.08; -0.86; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. FORM broke lower from a 14 week distribution pattern in mid-May. It rebounded to test that breakdown, rising to the 18 day EMA (40.86) the past week. Volume was lower, and it could not make the break through that level. Thursday volume jumped as FORM faded from that resistance. Looking for it to continue the break lower as it resumes the trend lower after the breakdown. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.66M Avg Volume: 639.368K
BUY POINT: $39.94 Volume=650K Target=$37.91 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: AFU SH - July $40p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/form.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, PCLN, NVDA, NYX
AAPL: Up again but gave back a move to 127.61 after two upgrades to $140. Volume was very heavy. This kind of intraday reversal bears watching and if it weakens it is a good idea to take at least some option gain off the table.
CELG: Very ugly drop below the 50 day EMA. This will take awhile to rectify.
DRIV: Driving to a new closing low for the year. Very weak.
GME: Sold back to the 18 day EMA but volume remained very tame. Looking for a hold in this general vicinity.
MA: High volume selling through the 18 day EMA so we closed out the play.
NVDA: Showing excellent relative strength.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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