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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CROX; OCR; SBUX
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BRY (Berry Petroleum--$37.13; -0.68; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bry.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. BRY is making its second test of the 10 day EMA (36.93) following its mid-May breakout from a 14 month cup with handle base of sorts. Nice volume on the breakout and off of the first test. Volume was strong Monday and Tuesday as BRY rallied higher again and it is still high on this pullback, but the price action is excellent, holding above the 10 day EMA (36.93) on the close. Looking for BRY to hold near this support and then resume the move. That is when we move in.
Volume: 1.171M Avg Volume: 451.348K
BUY POINT: $37.73 Volume=700K Target=$43.45 Stop=$36.57
POSITION: BRY KG - Nov. $35c (68 delta, 107 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bry.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
CX (Cemex SA--$38.13; -1.07; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was well above average Thursday as CX came back to test the late May breakout from its 12 week cup with handle base (though a rather jagged cup). That high volume shows some dumping, but it showed good action, reaching down toward the 18 day EMA and then rebounding to hold above the late February high that marks the point the base started to form. Thus despite the 'baby out with the bath water' selling Thursday, CX' action was solid. It may come back a bit more to test the 18 day EMA (37.22) before it is ready, but have to like this action in a very weak tape.
Volume: 5.62M Avg Volume: 3.748M
BUY POINT: $38.57 Volume=4.5M Target=$44.85 Stop=$37.05
POSITION: CX JG - Oct. $35c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cx.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
OXY (Occidental Petroleum--$56.67; -0.98; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oxy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. OXY broke out from a 9.5 month double bottom with handle base in mid-May. It rallied and made a test of the 10 day EMA (now at 56.28) and then rallied again. It is making its second test of this near support after the breakout. A strong stock will make 4 to 5 such runs, and you have to like the rather orderly, contained pullback it is making in all of the market selling. It may snug up to the 10 day EMA a bit more before it is ready to resume its move higher, we can be a bit patient here.
Volume: 6.83M Avg Volume: 5.551M
BUY POINT: $57.11 Volume=7.2M Target=$65.75 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: OXY KK - Nov. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oxy.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
AFFX (Affymetrix--$25.00; -0.71; optionable): Genetics analysis equipment for the life sciences and healthcare markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/affx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume moved up above average Thursday as AFFX broke below the 200 day SMA (25.21), starting the breakdown in its 4 month distribution base. Low volume peak in April that gave way to a gap lower. Very weak and when a stock moves through the 200 day SMA on rising trade that shows the big money is selling it. Looking to ride it lower. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 1.86M Avg Volume: 1.472M
BUY POINT: $24.82 Volume=1.5M Target=$23.25 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: FIQ SE - July $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/affx.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BIG (Big Lots--$30.00; -1.08; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Put. Big gapped higher on its earnings but then reversed course on high volume. It tried to breakout from its 9 week base but it failed. It tried to set up above the 90 day SMA (30.40) but Thursday it broke below that level. There is a gap higher from March, and the inability to hold a gain on earnings indicates it is going to fill that gap down at 26ish. Our initial target is much more conservative, but if it is selling we will let it fade. A move to the target lands a 43% gain.
Volume: 3.02M Avg Volume: 2.514M
BUY POINT: $29.86 Volume=3M Target=$27.80 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: BIG SF - July $30p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/big.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATK: Tentatively forecast for early August.
BA: Researching date. Struggling to hold the breakout.
BHI: Holding the gains nicely in the selling.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Earnings 5-2-07. Not going to happen with this sell off.
CHAP: Forecast 2nd week of July. Banging down to the 50 day EMA. Can still recover but will see how it sets back up.
CHE: Forecast mid-June
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Earnings 4-23-07. Researching the date. Really struggling.
CNQ: Earnings were 5-3-07. Has traded down to the 18 day EMA on above average volume.
COH: Forecast early August. Breaking the 50 day EMA. Not doing it.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings. Moving down to the 50 day EMA for a test.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
GVA: Researching date. Breakdown toward the 50 day EMA.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date. Volume surged as it broke lower
NOV: Earnings 4-27-07. Holding the 10 day EMA nicely.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07
RIMM: Early June
SSYS: Forecast third week of July
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date. Turning back down at the 18 day EMA. Critical time for it.
UPL: Sold off hard through the 50 day EMA. Will have to set back up.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June.
VIP: Researching date. Sold through the 50 day EMA on stronger, above average volume.
VMC: Also sold through the 50 day EMA on stronger volume. Will see how it sets back up.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
RL (Ralph Lauren--$94.95; -1.14; optionable): Polo and related clothing, accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
EARNINGS: 5-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RL jumped higher on its earnings but the guidance was a bit week. It did not tank, just slipped back the past week to the 18 day EMA (95.07) on overall lower volume, holding that level on the Thursday close. It has formed a 7 week base on the 50 day EMA (92.85), setting up the next breakout and run higher. It has been a stellar performer, and we are looking for another solid move off of this nicely formed base.
Volume: 959.8K Avg Volume: 812.128K
BUY POINT: $96.57 Volume=1.2M Target=$108.85 Stop=$94.38
POSITION: RL JS - Oct. $95c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/06/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$164.03; -0.75; optionable): Blackberries, Pearls, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Holding up very well even in the market selling. It undercut the 10 day EMA on the low but rebounded to close at that level. Working laterally, not giving up ground; the strength of a leaders. To recap: Another great market leader is testing near support at the 10 day EMA (163.58) following a big breakout move. RIMM broke higher in early May from a 4.5 month trading range. It was hit on its earnings report with a nasty gap lower, but it held the range, and then surged right back up through the top. It has given us a nice run already, and now it is making its second test of the 10 day, moving laterally the past week on very low, below average volume as it rests after its last leg higher. Like how it refuses to give back any gains as it does. Looking for a hold at this near support and then a break higher once more on a solid boost in volume.
Volume: 8.629M Avg Volume: 6.114M
BUY POINT: $165.89 Volume=7.2M Target=$186.95 Stop=$162.95
POSITION: RFY IM - Sept. $165c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CERN (Cerner--$55.21; -0.20; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cern.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the 50 day SMA on low, below average volume, ignoring the selling as it completes its test and sets up for the rebound higher. To recap: CERN surged higher last week, breaking free from a short 6 week base that consolidated the early February breakout from a large 14 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Big jump on the resumption of the breakout move and now a nice, easy, lower volume test of the 10 and 18 day EMA that has set up the next move. Volume jumped back well above average last Thursday, indicating it is ready to start the move again. Just want to see it log the move to the buy point and we move in.
Volume: 539.325K Avg Volume: 812.732K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.65
POSITION: CQN IY - Sept. $57.50c (50 delta, 256 OI) or CQN IK - Sept. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cern.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
FISV (Fiserv--$56.45; -0.92; optionable): Transaction processing, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing, showing a hammer doji just below the 10 day EMA (56.74). Volume was up, but no distribution as it is mostly holding its ground. Just being patient and letting it finish the set up for the breakout. To recap: FISV blasted out from a 12 week double bottom of sorts last Wednesday, surging on very strong volume to a new all-time high. It is making a test the past three days, coming back to test the move, showing a doji above the 10 day EMA (56.69) Tuesday on lower volume. Money flow is very strong and after this test FISV is ready to resume the breakout move. Just waiting for a bounce on continued solid volume.
Volume: 2.406M Avg Volume: 1.43M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=2.1M Target=$66.75 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: FQV IK - Sept. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fisv.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$62.66; -1.51; optionable): GPS devices for the consumer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Faded back to the 10 day EMA on the Thursday close. Volume edged higher but was still below average; not much selling strength as those who bought it to end May on the breakout are holding onto it. Looking for it to hold in this general area and resume the move, giving us our buy point. To recap: We watched GRMN form an 11 month ascending triangle and then watched it break right out last week on strong volume. Gee, made a lot of money on that move! It is now testing back on much lower, below average volume, refusing to give up much ground. The 10 day EMA (62.30) is rising to meet it; may test that support level before it resumes the breakout, but with the modest pullback we want to be ready to move in if it continues higher from here. Nice.
Volume: 1.668M Avg Volume: 1.803M
BUY POINT: $62.75. Has made the test of 62.30. Volume=2M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: GQR JM - Oct. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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