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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 3
NOTE: Part 3 will be forwarded later today.
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ALJ 05/21 DB hdl 40.45 -0.29 41.25 49.39 543K 500K 40.98
Current. Continued lower Friday after some low volume Thursday selling, undercutting the 18 day EMA on the low. It rebounded to close with a modest loss. Volume was up as the buyers moved back in. It has tested the breakout & now we want to see it continue higher into new high territory.
AMP 06/06 Test BO 63.46 +0.03 64.12 73.75 1.5M 1.4M 62.82
Buy Not Issued. Nice doji Friday as AMP tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and then rebounded for a modest gain on the best volume since the Monday breakout. Ready to go this week.
ATHR 05/22 Asc Bse 30.94 +0.37 29.91 35.78 1.5M 2.2M 29.65
Current. ATHR defied the selling to end the week, actually gapping higher Thursday on solid volume. It continued higher Friday. Have to like that relative strength.
BA 05/15 Test BO 98.19 +1.35 95.25 101.95 4M 4.2M 98.45
Trailing Stop. May have been a mistake taking the rest of the gain on this one as it rebounded to close just below the 10 day EMA.
BCSI 06/04 Test BO 43.56 +1.32 43.24 49.65 368K 450K 41.18
Current. Was never in trouble all week, just moving laterally following the breakout, waiting for the 10 day EMA (42.10) to rise up to it. Made it Friday, and now we expect BCSI to continue the breakout move.
BCSI 05/17 Cup hdl 43.56 +1.32 39.44 46.39 368K 500K 41.22
Current.
BIDU 05/09 Cup hdl 137.03 -0.22 132.15 148.50 1.7M 3.2M 141.31
Current. Sold hard Thursday, at least price-wise though volume was lower. Friday it tapped the 18 day EMA (134.75) on the low and rebounded to close flat on lower trade. It weathered the selling & is in great position to start the week.
BMC 05/30 Dbl btm 32.64 -0.10 33.18 39.98 2.4M 2M 32.21
Current. Gapped lower but recovered off the 18 day EMA test to hold the 10 day EMA on the close. Has formed a handle to its 16 week base and still in good shape for a breakout.
BUCY 05/21 Test 18 68.73 +1.87 69.31 79.95 510K 1M 67.22
Current. Tough Thursday sent it below the 18 day EMA, but it rebounded Friday. Volume needs to pick up as it continues higher or we will have to close it out. Critical point for BUCY.
CCJ 05/19 FlyPlat 52.00 +0.69 51.45 58.95 3.1M 3.5M 52.55
Current. Strong price and volume gain to start the week and then the metals sold. Friday it found footing at the May flying plateau and bounced higher. It is in great position to continue higher once more. Nonetheless we are kicking ourselves for leaving a pretty decent interim option gain on the table to start the week.
CEPH 05/02 Test BO 82.37 +0.43 81.45 92.85 1M 2.2M 81.98
Current. Sold down to the 18 day EMA Thursday, undercut it Friday, but then rebounded to close positive. Good test of near support has CEPH set up well to continue its trend of bouncing up off that near support.
CMI 05/29 Test 18 93.80 +0.40 92.64 104.55 1.7M 2.5M 97.77
Current. Exploded higher Tuesday and we took some gain. CMI sputtered and stalled immediately, and fell back to the 18 day EMA on the Friday low. It rebounded for a gain. We are thinking about using this pullback to buy in again.
CROX 04/23 Cup hdl 86.56 +0.46 56.20 66.45 5.3M 3.1M 83.89
Trailing Stop. Finally took the rest of the gain though CROX managed to recover on the session. It rallied higher Thursday and gave it all back; after a run that can mean the part is over. It started lower Friday so we just took the gain. If we get another shot, say on the split, we will take it.
CRZO 05/24 Test BO 42.65 +0.05 39.35 45.95 745K 750K 41.32
Current. Held its gains after the solid breakout move. In excellent shape to continue higher this week as it showed very good relative strength.
CX 06/07 Test BO 39.08 +0.95 38.72 44.95 4.2M 4.5M 37.05
Entered today. Dove lower early but after undercutting the 18 day EMA CX reversed and rallied nicely. Could not resist this action and started the play.
CXW 03/26 DB hdl 64.35 +0.83 52.52 59.45 357K 450K 63.11
Current. Nice recovery off the test of the 18 day EMA puts CXW in great shape to start next week and continue its nice trend up the 18 day EMA.
DO 05/26 Test BO 91.62 -0.78 96.65 111.50 2.9M 3.5M 93.57
Current. DO did us no favors at all last week. It undercut the 18 day EMA to end the week and rebounded some Friday. We decided to hang and see if DO will turn into a diamond as the drillers rebound.
DO 05/01 Test BO 91.62 -0.78 88.18 99.95 2.9M 3.4M 93.57
Current.
FCX 06/06 Test 18 76.18 +1.64 77.12 87.00 12M 12M 75.88
Current. Gapped lower but then reversed and posted a nice gain on easily the strongest volume over the past three weeks. Like that as it shows the buyers moving in on the tap near the 50 day EMA.
FCX 05/23 Asc Bse 76.18 +1.64 74.45 85.00 12M 12M 76.22
Current.
FISV 06/05 Test BO 57.27 +0.82 58.05 66.75 2M 2.1M 56.55
Buy Not Hit. Nice looking indeed. Good bounce off the 18 day EMA on above average volume, and that looks ready to serve up a nice continued breakout move following this test.
GME 05/24 Test 18 37.27 +0.85 37.01 42.45 1.4M 3.5M 36.92
Current. Held the 18 day EMA (36.38) on the Thursday close and bounced Friday. No volume, but GME is ready to continue its trend higher up the 18 day EMA.
GSF 04/26 Asc Bse 67.93 -0.61 65.34 75.30 4.5M 6M 68.28
Trailing Stop. Managed to come back after gapping lower and selling off, but we closed it out when we saw it was not going to recover the 18 day EMA on the close, and that is a change of character.
HAL 05/09 Dbl btm 35.24 +0.21 33.99 39.95 14M 30M 35.78
Current. Sold back with most energy stocks to end the week, but after undercutting the 18 day EMA and some support at 35 intraday Friday, HAL bounced to hold that level. So we decided to let it hang on into next week.
HC 05/21 Asc Tri 25.04 +0.26 24.65 29.95 1.1M 1.3M 24.98
Current. Excellent action, tapping at the 18 day EMA (24.39) on the Friday low and rebounding to post a gain. In great shape to continue higher this week.
ICE 05/26 Test BO 145.63 -1.08 148.15 165.00 3.4M 5M 148.25
Current. We took some of the gain off the table given the gap lower but we left part of the position on as ICE can heat up in a hurry and it is still in quite decent position.
ICE 05/08 DB hdl 145.63 -1.08 137.48 157.00 3.4M 5M 148.24
Trailing Stop. Banked the rest of some solid gain and will see if it gives us another entry point.
ICON 06/07 DB hdl 22.12 +0.15 22.47 25.95 417K 1.4M 21.29
Buy Not Hit. Still in the test of the 18 day EMA in the handle, still set up very nicely to be an icon of leadership this week.
IOC 05/14 Test 50 37.50 -0.73 30.44 36.52 833K 550K 40.22
Current. Thursday was a big price loss but volume did not balloon. Held the 10 day EMA on the Friday close and that leaves it in good shape to move higher this week and resume that strong breakout move.
KNOL 06/02 Cup hdl 17.87 -0.16 19.21 22.95 155K 240K 18.08
Buy Not Hit. Sold to the 50 day EMA and tried to bounce. Will keep watching it but dropping for now.
LYO 05/26 Test 18 37.15 +0.71 38.20 44.65 4M 5M 36.31
Current. Sold back to the 18 day EMA (36.59) in the market selling, but held that support and bounced Friday. Still in excellent position to rally from here to another new high.
LYO 05/10 Test BO 37.15 +0.71 34.88 40.95 4M 3M 36.31
Current.
MICC 06/06 Test BO 84.50 +0.48 88.11 99.95 470K 750K 85.88
Buy Not Hit. Sold down to the 50 day EMA on volume lower than the breakout. Will watch it to see if it can rebound but dropping for now.
MR 05/19 DB hdl 29.07 +0.81 27.89 33.55 680K 750K 28.45
Current. This one is as wild as a Bangkok bar, but after a big reach down to the 50 day EMA on the Friday low it roared back. It is volatile and we give it a commensurate amount of leash. Nice recovery and looks ready after this pullback.
NKE 05/26 Test BO 52.96 -1.14 55.65 63.95 8.9M 3.6M 55.57
Current. Was cut to neutral over US sales worries (though the growth is in China and other foreign economies) and NKE gapped lower below the 90 day MA. That gave is little to work with. It came back from the lows. Need to see it over the 90 day (53.38) and then watch how it handles the gap down point at 54.
NTGR 05/16 Test BO 36.50 +1.05 35.95 42.95 726K 1M 36.28
Current. Look up 'intraday reversal' in the dictionary and this chart is there. Tapped at the 50 day EMA and the May trading range lows intraday and then reversed to post a nice gain. Outside of Thursday when it was tossed out with the trash (it is definitely not), it has shown great relative strength. Looks like the shakeout is over.
NTGR 04/09 Dbl btm 36.50 +1.05 30.68 36.75 726K 1M 36.28
Current.
OIH 05/29 Test 18 167.43 +0.27 170.16 185.00 10M 12M 171.11
Current. Sold with energy on Thursday, but that was the only day of downside volume. It held support at 165 and bounced Friday. It is set to rebound but want to see some volume.
OMNI 05/23 DB hdl 11.41 -0.31 11.84 14.25 766K 750K 11.11
Current. Faded back after that strong breakout move Monday. It tapped the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and recovered to hold the 10 day EMA. It is set up after this test to move again, and if it was missed on the last move this test is giving us the next entry point.
RIG 05/29 Test BO 96.96 +0.62 98.30 109.75 4.9M 7.5M 98.55
Current. RIG suffered a modest blowout Thursday, but it managed to hold the 18 day EMA (96.06) and bounce Friday. This is where it needs to hold and bounce to keep the trend set in motion by the late April breakout.
RIMM 06/06 Test BO 165.67 +1.64 165.89 186.95 5.4M 7.2M 162.95
Buy Not Issued. Tapped lower toward the 18 day EMA and then bounce to close positive on the session. Not any volume, so held off looking for more trade this week.
RIMM 05/16 Test BO 165.67 +1.64 156.00 179.95 5.4M 9M 162.95
Current.
SLB 05/26 Test BO 78.76 +0.98 80.25 91.95 8.7M 10M 78.11
Current. Sold Thursday but held key support at 77.50 and bounced Friday on rising, average volume. Looking solid for a strong move from here.
SLB 05/15 Test 50 78.76 +0.98 76.52 87.85 8.7M 10M 78.11
Current.
SNDA 05/26 Test BO 27.42 +0.42 28.65 34.45 725K 1.1M 27.31
Buy Not Issued. Did a little interacting with the 50 day EMA (26.45) to end the week, but volume remained low, rebounding Friday as SNDA started to move off this key level. Will see if this shakeout turns into a breakout.
SPN 05/12 Flat 37.66 -0.42 39.17 45.45 1.2M 1.6M 39.13
Current. Hardly superior performance last week, gapping lower Friday and not giving us much to work with. It recovered to hold above the 50 day EMA (37.54) on the close and thus we let it hold over into this week. Volume was damn low on the selling as well.
SU 04/21 DB hdl 87.46 +0.70 83.55 95.65 2.3M 3.5M 87.75
Current. Sold back with the rest of energy, but held the 18 day EMA (86.74) and started to bounce Friday. Held the 18 day EMA that is the trend and now we look for another good bounce higher this week.
TRMB 05/31 Test 50 29.15 +0.28 29.88 34.89 913K 650K 28.69
Buy Not Hit. Spent the week at the 50 day EMA (28.93) and then bounced higher Friday on some solid above average volume. It is set for the break higher this week.
WNR 05/14 Asc Bse 49.41 +1.20 42.45 49.95 1.4M 1.2M 50.24
Current. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and then recovered nicely to post a again on rising volume. It is ready for a new buy this week.
XTO 05/26 Test BO 60.52 +1.02 58.41 66.95 6.8M 4.5M 59.88
Current. Bounced off the 10 day EMA (59.37) on the low on some solid above average volume once more. In position for a new buy this week.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AFFX 06/07 HdShldr 25.37 +0.37 24.82 23.25 618K 1.5M 25.25
Buy Not Hit. Bounced higher in the Friday rebound rally but volume fell off well below average. That shows no one really had any faith in buying back into it. Thus we look for AFFX to roll back over this week.
BIG 06/07 Put 30.53 +0.53 29.86 27.80 2.5M 3M 30.45
Buy Not Issued. Sold off early but then spent the day coming back. Managed to crack over the 90 day SMA on the close. Not a very big lot of movement. Will see if this stalls it and sends it back down.
FORM 06/07 HdShldr 41.56 +1.48 39.94 37.91 1.4M 650K 40.55
Buy Not Hit. Jumped higher on the NSM news. Will see how it handles the 200 day SMA it tapped on the Friday high (42) and if it starts to drop we will put on a new play. Dropping for now.
OCR 05/26 Put 34.96 -0.05 37.15 35.00 2.1M 2.8M 35.35
OCR drove lower Friday, pushing to down to 34.59 and further past the target before it started to rebound. If you were in that was a good time to lock in some gain.
PRFT 06/06 Put 19.07 -0.01 19.74 18.55 731K 385K 19.38
Doji at the May intraday low at 19 after that hard dump Thursday. Stronger volume Friday on that doji. Have to be careful from here.
SBUX 05/23 Put 27.67 +0.23 28.31 26.75 14M 13M 27.67
Current. Bounced back Friday after that hard dump lower Thursday. Volume was lower though still above average. Still looking for a further drop from here, something that SBUX has given us four times prior this year as it trends lower and lower after the sales growth peak hit last year.
End part 2 of 3
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