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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCSI; CAT; CX; CXW; FCX; MR; NTGR; WNR; XTO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$63.82; +1.16; optionable): Global positioning devices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We watched GRMN form an 11 month ascending triangle and then watched it break right out to end May. Didn't make a lot of money on that move seeing how we were standing on the sidelines. It is now testing back on much lower, below average volume, refusing to give up much ground even in that market selling. Volume remained below average; no one wanted to dump it. The 10 day EMA (62.86) has risen to meet it, and that often sends a breakout higher once more. Friday GRMN did indeed break higher though volume remained well below average. Looks ready to make its move. Nice.
Volume: 1.435M Avg Volume: 1.783M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=2M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: GQR JM - Oct. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/grmn.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
HC (Hanover Compressor--$25.04; +0.26; optionable): Equipment for oil & gas production, processing and transporation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent surge ahead of and through its earnings announcement, rallying to 26 on the high. Nice base on base pattern: it gapped out of a 9 month base to start February (earnings) and it immediately fell into the current 15 week base. Well, it was current. It broke out, tested, rallied on earnings, and is testing again. That leaves it plenty of room overhead to rebound for further run. It has held the 18 day EMA (24.39) on the low, tapping it Friday and rebounding. Basically it used the market selling to test its breakout and never got into bad shape. Looks good for the week ahead.
Volume: 1.096M Avg Volume: 1.235M
BUY POINT: $25.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.31 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: HC IE - Sept. $25c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hc.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
MRO (Marathon Oil--$125.45; +1.96; optionable): Major oil and gas refiner. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Quite a surge for MRO in May after it broke higher from a 6 week flat base to start that month. It peaked on the move a week back and made a very nice, orderly test of the 10 day EMA (123.37) last week. Volume was above average on the Thursday selling, but it held and is in great position to move toward its split with another good burst higher.
Volume: 3.36M Avg Volume: 4.137M
BUY POINT: $125.75 Volume=4.5M Target=$144.95 Stop=$121.89
POSITION: MRO JZ - Oct. $125c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mro.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$49.41; +1.20; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Fantastic action. WNR broke higher in late May out of a 9 week base that was identical to its December to February base that produced a big winner for us. It is testing the breakout from that base, tapping the 18 day EMA (46.47) on the Friday low and then posting a nice gain on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Superb action, using the market selling to test the breakout and when the market bounced, it bounced on strong volume. That shows us the big money still wants to be in this stock. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.367M Avg Volume: 929.343K
BUY POINT: $50.22 Volume=1.3M Target=$59.95 Stop=$46.70
POSITION: WNR IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wnr.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.52; +1.02; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. XTO gapped higher in early June, moving out of a nice little 7 week cup with handle base. That move made us some nice money, and it has come back to test that move, filling most of the gap as it taps at the 10 day EMA (59.37). Indeed Friday XTO tapped at that level and rebounded Friday. Excellent strength in a weak market, and this test has set up XTO in great position to make us more money this week.
Volume: 6.84M Avg Volume: 3.57M
BUY POINT: $60.82 Volume=5M Target=$69.75 Stop=$58.32
POSITION: XTO KL - Nov $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xto.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$99.54; +0.18; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-4-07
STATUS: Double top. This is a bit aggressive, but ATK has formed a 4 week double top, the second one early this month on basically no volume. That is always an indication to watch for as it tells us that the buyers are no longer bidding it up as they push it to new highs. Thursday volume jumped as ATK broke below and closed below the 18 day EMA (99.72). Friday it tried to rebound but ended up showing a doji below the 18 day. Looking for ATK to turn back from this point and give us a move down near the 50 day EMA (96.20) for a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 349.9K Avg Volume: 294.077K
BUY POINT: $99.11 Volume=450K Target=$96.55 Stop=$100.28
POSITION: ATK TT - Aug. $100p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/atk.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
Need some more input on replacing ISE (buy out), NYX (bomb out), and DRIV.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, PCLN, NVDA, NYX
AAPL: Continuing the trend higher but struggling to hold the gains the past two sessions. The iPhone comes out on 6-29-07. Expecting it to struggle at some point before then, and the past two sessions were something of one. No damage but a high volume turnaround Thursday should have you closer to pulling the trigger on at least part of the position.
AKAM: Upgraded on the NSM results and the Friday move took it to the top of the May range on some hefty volume. Key range of resistance from 46 to 48 for AKAM.
GOOG: Taking a breather after that strong run from late May. Excellent action as it holds its gains.
MA: Wow. What a comeback on strong volume after tanking Thursday to close below the 18 day EMA for the first time in over a month. Watching this one to see if it sets for another buy.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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