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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCSI; BUCY; CX; CXW; FCX; MR; NTGR; WNR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$63.82; +1.16; optionable): Global positioning devices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We watched GRMN form an 11 month ascending triangle and then watched it break right out to end May. Didn't make a lot of money on that move seeing how we were standing on the sidelines. It is now testing back on much lower, below average volume, refusing to give up much ground even in that market selling. Volume remained below average; no one wanted to dump it. The 10 day EMA (62.86) has risen to meet it, and that often sends a breakout higher once more. Friday GRMN did indeed break higher though volume remained well below average. Looks ready to make its move. Nice.
Volume: 1.435M Avg Volume: 1.783M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=2M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: GQR JM - Oct. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.02; +1.55; no options): Marketing services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
STATUS: Test breakout. GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the selling last week and gave the breakout back on Thursday. Friday it bounced right back up on lower but still above average volume (not much lower volume at that). Great breakout, nice recovery, and looking for another good upside move on continued solid trade to give us the buy point.
Volume: 346.699K Avg Volume: 195.794K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsol.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
MRO (Marathon Oil--$125.45; +1.96; optionable): Major oil and gas refiner. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Quite a surge for MRO in May after it broke higher from a 6 week flat base to start that month. It peaked on the move a week back and made a very nice, orderly test of the 10 day EMA (123.37) last week. Volume was above average on the Thursday selling, but it held and is in great position to move toward its split with another good burst higher.
Volume: 3.36M Avg Volume: 4.137M
BUY POINT: $125.75 Volume=4.5M Target=$144.95 Stop=$121.89
POSITION: MRO JZ - Oct. $125c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mro.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$49.41; +1.20; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Fantastic action. WNR broke higher in late May out of a 9 week base that was identical to its December to February base that produced a big winner for us. It is testing the breakout from that base, tapping the 18 day EMA (46.47) on the Friday low and then posting a nice gain on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Superb action, using the market selling to test the breakout and when the market bounced, it bounced on strong volume. That shows us the big money still wants to be in this stock. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.367M Avg Volume: 929.343K
BUY POINT: $50.22 Volume=1.3M Target=$59.95 Stop=$46.70
POSITION: WNR IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wnr.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.52; +1.02; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. XTO gapped higher in early June, moving out of a nice little 7 week cup with handle base. That move made us some nice money, and it has come back to test that move, filling most of the gap as it taps at the 10 day EMA (59.37). Indeed Friday XTO tapped at that level and rebounded Friday. Excellent strength in a weak market, and this test has set up XTO in great position to make us more money this week.
Volume: 6.84M Avg Volume: 3.57M
BUY POINT: $60.82 Volume=5M Target=$69.75 Stop=$58.32
POSITION: XTO KL - Nov $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$99.54; +0.18; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-4-07
STATUS: Double top. This is a bit aggressive, but ATK has formed a 4 week double top, the second one early this month on basically no volume. That is always an indication to watch for as it tells us that the buyers are no longer bidding it up as they push it to new highs. Thursday volume jumped as ATK broke below and closed below the 18 day EMA (99.72). Friday it tried to rebound but ended up showing a doji below the 18 day. Looking for ATK to turn back from this point and give us a move down near the 50 day EMA (96.20) for a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 349.9K Avg Volume: 294.077K
BUY POINT: $99.11 Volume=450K Target=$96.55 Stop=$100.28
POSITION: ATK TT - Aug. $100p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atk.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/06/2007
AMP (Ameriprise Financial--$63.46; +0.03; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tap of the 18 day EMA (62.54) on the Friday low then a rebound to flat on stronger, above average volume. Good shakeout and ready to make the break higher. To recap: AMP showed some strong volume last week as it broke higher from a 14 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA (60.88) as support for the higher and higher lows. It really jumped Monday, making a clear break higher, but then the market caught it and pulled it back Tuesday and Wednesday. Volume was lower, and it has easily and quite nicely held above the 10 day EMA (62.96) on the Wednesday low before bouncing to recoup most of the losses. Looking for it to rebound on some more solid trade and again move to a new high.
Volume: 1.526M Avg Volume: 1.116M
BUY POINT: $64.12 Volume=1.4M Target=$73.75 Stop=$62.82
POSITION: AMP IL - Sept. $60c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amp.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
FISV (Fiserv--$57.27; +0.82; optionable): Transaction processing, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice bounce off the 18 day EMA (56) Friday as it looks as if FISV has completed its test of the late May breakout. Volume was lower but still nicely above average as it made the rebound. Looks sweet. To recap: FISV blasted out from a 12 week double bottom of sorts last Wednesday, surging on very strong volume to a new all-time high. It is making a test the past three days, coming back to test the move, showing a doji above the 10 day EMA Tuesday on lower volume. Money flow is very strong and after this test FISV is ready to resume the breakout move. Just waiting for a bounce on continued solid volume.
Volume: 2.014M Avg Volume: 1.469M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=2.1M Target=$66.75 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: FQV IK - Sept. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fisv.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
ICON (Iconix Brand Group--$22.12; +0.15; optionable): Multiple consumer apparel brands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Held the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and rebounded modestly Friday though no volume as it did. Still a very nice set up for a break higher as it weathered last week's selling nicely. To recap: ICON is forming the handle to a 14 week base, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low (21.72) and then bouncing to cut some losses. Volume was up, but overall trade on this short pullback is modest and the price action is contained and orderly. Looking for ICON to finish this test and then deliver the upside breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 417.25K Avg Volume: 930.991K
BUY POINT: $22.47 Volume=1.4M Target=$25.95 Stop=$21.29
POSITION: QIA KX - Nov. $22.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/icon.html
Play Date: 06/06/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$165.67; +1.64; optionable): Blackberries, Pearls, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Reached lower again Friday but rebounded once more to hold the 10 day EMA (164.03) on the close. Held its ground well in the selling and is ready to move higher and continue the breakout run. To recap: Another great market leader is testing near support at the 10 day EMA following a big breakout move. RIMM broke higher in early May from a 4.5 month trading range. It was hit on its earnings report with a nasty gap lower, but it held the range, and then surged right back up through the top. It has given us a nice run already, and now it is making its second test of the 10 day, moving laterally the past week on very low, below average volume as it rests after its last leg higher. Like how it refuses to give back any gains as it does. Looking for a hold at this near support and then a break higher once more on a solid boost in volume.
Volume: 5.384M Avg Volume: 6.126M
BUY POINT: $165.89 Volume=7.2M Target=$186.95 Stop=$162.95
POSITION: RFY IM - Sept. $165c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rimm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
AFFX (Affymetrix--$25.37; +0.37; optionable): Genetics analysis equipment for the life sciences and healthcare markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/affx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. AFFX bounced higher Friday with the market, moving up through the 200 day SMA (25.23) but volume was next to nothing. Looking for it to turn back over this week but need to see some trade again as it turns back down. To recap: Volume moved up above average Thursday as AFFX broke below the 200 day SMA, starting the breakdown in its 4 month distribution base. Low volume peak in April that gave way to a gap lower. Very weak and when a stock moves through the 200 day SMA on rising trade that shows the big money is selling it. Looking to ride it lower. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 618.037K Avg Volume: 1.464M
BUY POINT: $24.82 Volume=1.5M Target=$23.25 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: FIQ SE - July $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/affx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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