|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CROX; OCR; SBUX
New Pre-Split Plays: New buy point on a current winner.
Play Date: 06/09/2007
MRO (Marathon Oil--$125.45; +1.96; optionable): Major oil and gas refiner. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Quite a surge for MRO in May has made is a sack full of money after it broke higher from a 6 week flat base to start that month. It peaked on the move a week back and made a very nice, orderly test of the 10 day EMA (123.37) last week. Volume was above average on the Thursday selling, but it held and is in great position to move toward its split with another good burst higher.
Volume: 3.36M Avg Volume: 4.137M
BUY POINT: $125.75 Volume=4.5M Target=$144.95 Stop=$121.89
POSITION: MRO JZ - Oct. $125c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mro.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
FCFS (First Cash Financial--$25.58; +0.96; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcfs.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. FCFS put the week of selling to good use, testing the 18 day EMA on the Thursday intraday low and then rebounding on strong trade. Friday it started the breakout move from its 21 week accumulation base. Strong volume on the breakout; excellent action as FCFS moves for a new all-time high. Excellent.
Volume: 684.142K Avg Volume: 255.192K
BUY POINT: $25.78 Volume=300K Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.11
POSITION: FQO IE - Sept. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcfs.html
Leader:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
HC (Hanover Compressor--$25.04; +0.26; optionable): Equipment for oil & gas production, processing and transporation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent surge ahead of and through its earnings announcement, rallying to 26 on the high. Nice base on base pattern: it gapped out of a 9 month base to start February (earnings) and it immediately fell into the current 15 week base. Well, it was current. It broke out, tested, rallied on earnings, and is testing again. That leaves it plenty of room overhead to rebound for further run. It has held the 18 day EMA (24.39) on the low, tapping it Friday and rebounding. Basically it used the market selling to test its breakout and never got into bad shape. Looks good for the week ahead.
Volume: 1.096M Avg Volume: 1.235M
BUY POINT: $25.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.31 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: HC IE - Sept. $25c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$99.54; +0.18; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-4-07
STATUS: Double top. This is a bit aggressive, but ATK has formed a 4 week double top, the second one early this month on basically no volume. That is always an indication to watch for as it tells us that the buyers are no longer bidding it up as they push it to new highs. Thursday volume jumped as ATK broke below and closed below the 18 day EMA (99.72). Friday it tried to rebound but ended up showing a doji below the 18 day. Looking for ATK to turn back from this point and give us a move down near the 50 day EMA (96.20) for a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 349.9K Avg Volume: 294.077K
BUY POINT: $99.11 Volume=450K Target=$96.55 Stop=$100.28
POSITION: ATK TT - Aug. $100p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Forecast this week. Rebounded on lower volume to end the week so we took it off the table, but if it can continue higher on some trade this wee we will move back in.
BHI: Holding the gains nicely in the selling.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Will see if it can recover off of this tank to the 90 day SMA. We could have lived with a test of the 50 day, but the 90 day changes the character of the stock.
CHAP: Forecast 2nd week of July. Hanging onto the 50 day EMA to end the week. Will see if it can deliver a bounce from here.
CHE: Forecast mid-June
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Forecast third week of July. Continues to struggle to hold the 50 day EMA in its second test of that level in as many weeks. Needs to set up better.
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Researching the next date.
COH: Forecast early August. Trying to recover from the break through the 50 day EMA.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings. Still testing the 50 day EMA.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date. Big downside volume, strong upside volume Friday.
NOV: Forecast late July. Nice test of the 18 day EMA as it walks higher in its uptrend.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
PENN: Earnings 4-26-07. No announcement in May as we were looking for. Researching next date.
RIMM: Early June. Nothing thus far from RIMM, but it remains set up to move higher for us.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June, but may take until early August.
VIP: Researching date. Still trying to recover, hitting the 90 day SMA on the Friday low and rebounding.
VMC: Bounced back on stronger volume Friday, holding the trading range.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.02; +1.55; no options): Marketing services in China.
BACKGROUND: Last split a whopping 11:10 split on 3/4/05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
STATUS: Test breakout. GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the selling last week and gave the breakout back on Thursday. Friday it bounced right back up on lower but still above average volume (not much lower volume at that). Great breakout, nice recovery, and looking for another good upside move on continued solid trade to give us the buy point.
Volume: 346.699K Avg Volume: 195.794K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsol.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$49.41; +1.20; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Fantastic action. WNR broke higher in late May out of a 9 week base that was identical to its December to February base that produced a big winner for us. It is testing the breakout from that base, tapping the 18 day EMA (46.47) on the Friday low and then posting a nice gain on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Superb action, using the market selling to test the breakout and when the market bounced, it bounced on strong volume. That shows us the big money still wants to be in this stock. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.367M Avg Volume: 929.343K
BUY POINT: $50.22 Volume=1.3M Target=$59.95 Stop=$46.70
POSITION: WNR IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wnr.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.52; +1.02; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. XTO gapped higher in early June, moving out of a nice little 7 week cup with handle base. That move made us some nice money, and it has come back to test that move, filling most of the gap as it taps at the 10 day EMA (59.37). Indeed Friday XTO tapped at that level and rebounded Friday. Excellent strength in a weak market, and this test has set up XTO in great position to make us more money this week.
Volume: 6.84M Avg Volume: 3.57M
BUY POINT: $60.82 Volume=5M Target=$69.75 Stop=$58.32
POSITION: XTO KL - Nov $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/06/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$165.67; +1.64; optionable): Blackberries, Pearls, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-11-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Reached lower again Friday but rebounded once more to hold the 10 day EMA (164.03) on the close. Held its ground well in the selling and is ready to move higher and continue the breakout run. To recap: Another great market leader is testing near support at the 10 day EMA following a big breakout move. RIMM broke higher in early May from a 4.5 month trading range. It was hit on its earnings report with a nasty gap lower, but it held the range, and then surged right back up through the top. It has given us a nice run already, and now it is making its second test of the 10 day, moving laterally the past week on very low, below average volume as it rests after its last leg higher. Like how it refuses to give back any gains as it does. Looking for a hold at this near support and then a break higher once more on a solid boost in volume.
Volume: 5.384M Avg Volume: 6.126M
BUY POINT: $165.89 Volume=7.2M Target=$186.95 Stop=$162.95
POSITION: RFY IM - Sept. $165c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BRY (Berry Petroleum--$37.87; +0.74; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bry.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Huge volume Friday as BRY started higher, resuming its breakout. If it can continue the move this week it is a buy. To recap: BRY is making its second test of the 10 day EMA following its mid-May breakout from a 14 month cup with handle base of sorts. Nice volume on the breakout and off of the first test. Volume was strong Monday and Tuesday as BRY rallied higher again and it is still high on this pullback, but the price action is excellent, holding above the 10 day EMA (36.93) on the close. Looking for BRY to hold near this support and then resume the move. That is when we move in.
Volume: 1.389M Avg Volume: 466.078K
BUY POINT: A further move on strong volume (orig. $37.73) Volume=700K Target=$43.45 Stop=$36.57
POSITION: BRY KG - Nov. $35c (68 delta, 107 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bry.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
FISV (Fiserv--$57.27; +0.82; optionable): Transaction processing, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice bounce off the 18 day EMA (56) Friday as it looks as if FISV has completed its test of the late May breakout. Volume was lower but still nicely above average as it made the rebound. Looks sweet. To recap: FISV blasted out from a 12 week double bottom of sorts last Wednesday, surging on very strong volume to a new all-time high. It is making a test the past three days, coming back to test the move, showing a doji above the 10 day EMA Tuesday on lower volume. Money flow is very strong and after this test FISV is ready to resume the breakout move. Just waiting for a bounce on continued solid volume.
Volume: 2.014M Avg Volume: 1.469M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=2.1M Target=$66.75 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: FQV IK - Sept. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fisv.html
Play Date: 06/05/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$63.82; +1.16; optionable): Global positioning devices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice price action Friday has GRMN looking super for a resumption of the breakout move. To recap: We watched GRMN form an 11 month ascending triangle and then watched it break right out to end May. Didn't make a lot of money on that move seeing how we were standing on the sidelines. It is now testing back on much lower, below average volume, refusing to give up much ground even in that market selling. Volume remained below average; no one wanted to dump it. The 10 day EMA (62.86) has risen to meet it, and that often sends a breakout higher once more. Friday GRMN did indeed break higher though volume remained well below average. Looks ready to make its move. Nice.
Volume: 1.435M Avg Volume: 1.783M
BUY POINT: $62.75. Has made the test of 62.30. Volume=2M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: GQR JM - Oct. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
OXY (Occidental Petroleum--$56.94; +0.27; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oxy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Nice test Friday, tapping toward the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to hold the 10 day EMA and post a modest gain. Excellent breakout test as set OXY for a continued breakout run. To recap: OXY broke out from a 9.5 month double bottom with handle base in mid-May. It rallied and made a test of the 10 day EMA (now at 56.28) and then rallied again. It is making its second test of this near support after the breakout. A strong stock will make 4 to 5 such runs, and you have to like the rather orderly, contained pullback it is making in all of the market selling. It may snug up to the 10 day EMA a bit more before it is ready to resume its move higher, we can be a bit patient here.
Volume: 4.171M Avg Volume: 5.495M
BUY POINT: $57.11 Volume=7.2M Target=$65.75 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: OXY KK - Nov. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oxy.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
AFFX (Affymetrix--$25.37; +0.37; optionable): Genetics analysis equipment for the life sciences and healthcare markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/affx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. AFFX bounced higher Friday with the market, moving up through the 200 day SMA (25.23) but volume was next to nothing. Looking for it to turn back over this week but need to see some trade again as it turns back down. To recap: Volume moved up above average Thursday as AFFX broke below the 200 day SMA, starting the breakdown in its 4 month distribution base. Low volume peak in April that gave way to a gap lower. Very weak and when a stock moves through the 200 day SMA on rising trade that shows the big money is selling it. Looking to ride it lower. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 618.037K Avg Volume: 1.464M
BUY POINT: $24.82 Volume=1.5M Target=$23.25 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: FIQ SE - July $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/affx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
