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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CMI; DO; FCX; GRMN; RIMM
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/11/2007
CBEY (CBeyond Communications--$38.39; +1.16; optionable): VOIP services to small and medium-sized businesses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbey.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Test breakout. CBEY surged off the 10 day EMA (36.76) Monday on strong, above average volume. It broke higher from a 6 week reverse head and shoulders base that was the second pattern in a 6 month base on base consolidation. It broke out to start June, tested the 10 day, and then took off Monday. Excellent move to a new all-time high and ready to move in as CBEY continues higher. Super action from a new market leader.
Volume: 681.925K Avg Volume: 370.066K
BUY POINT: $38.57 Volume=400K Target=$44.38 Stop=$36.65
POSITION: QYN IH - Sept. $40c (44 delta) or QUN IG - Sept. $35c (70 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbey.html
Play Date: 06/11/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$40.51; +0.36; optionable): Thermal imaging and infrared camera systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. FLIR made us some very nice green in its March through April run. A nice spring higher that peaked at 44, and after that move it needed a breather. It is currently in the sixth week of its test, coming back to the 50 day EMA (39.78) and holding at that level. That is where it bottomed in mid-May and the mid-April consolidation before it surged again. That makes this a great point to hold and resume the move. Monday volume bumped higher as FLIR started of the 50 day. Looking for some more trade and a move through the 10 and 18 day EMA (40.94) on strong volume to start the play.
Volume: 549.519K Avg Volume: 626.608K
BUY POINT: $41.08 Volume=940K Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.57
POSITION: FFQ JH - Oct. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flir.html
Play Date: 06/11/2007
RATE (Bankrate--$45.49; +3.06; optionable): Online financial and banking service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong breakout on strong volume Monday as RATE cleared the highs in the handle to its 21 week base. Beautiful action as it breaks higher inside of a larger 14 month pattern. Excellent break higher, and as it continues we are looking to pick up a partial position (most likely half) and then look for a successful test to pick up additional shares. Monday was a strong move and it may come back some on Tuesday initially to test; if it does and it holds the line and starts to bounce, all the better.
Volume: 874.67K Avg Volume: 478.797K
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=500K Target=$54.95 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: QIB HI - Aug. $45c (58 delta) or QIB KI - Nov. $45c (53 delta, 211 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rate.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/11/2007
ETR (Entergy--$109.00; +2.20; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Put. ETR formed a head and shoulders form late April to late May, the right shoulder being very weak, forming well below the left. That is an indication of a weak stock. It broke lower and fell through the 90 day SMA (107), then rebounded the past tow sessions to tap the 10 day EMA (110) on the high. Strong volume on the rebound but lower than the selling. Looking for a rollover once more to move into positions. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 2.029M Avg Volume: 1.383M
BUY POINT: $108.72 Volume=1.5M Target=$103.55 Stop=$109.94
POSITION: ETR UB - Sept. $110p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etr.html
Play Date: 06/11/2007
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$46.82; -0.09; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqqq.html
STATUS: Put. The NASDAQ 100 has a toppy look the past 6 weeks as it moved to a new high but volume did not follow it. Indeed, the Q's gained volume in the recent selling. The Q's rebounded the past two sessions but after moving through the 10 day EMA (46.95) it finished negative as very low volume was not enough to push it. It just about matched the highs three weeks back that has the look of a left shoulder to a potential head and shoulders. Looks ready to fail here and we are looking for a move down to near the February high at 45.50. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 97.154M Avg Volume: 113.619M
BUY POINT: $46.72 Volume=115M Target=$45.65 Stop=$47.04
POSITION: QQQ SV - July $48p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qqqq.html
Either way: This stock can go either way in the current market. It has been a market leader and has faded to key support after a long run. Whichever way it goes we will go with it.
Play Date: 06/11/2007
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$79.88; -4.75; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CLF surged higher to end May in a move that looks something like a climax run at the end of a 5 month run following the breakout from a cup with handle base. It bounced Friday on strong volume on the rumors X might be taken out. It was down Monday as NUE warned. One up, one down. If it breaks higher on strong volume once more we won't argue, and we will look to play the next run higher as it can obviously fly when it gets moving.
Volume: 2.145M Avg Volume: 1.14M
BUY POINT: $81.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$94.95 Stop=$78.89
POSITION: CLF JP - Oct. $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clf.html
Play Date: 06/11/2007
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$79.88; -4.75; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
STATUS: Put. If CLF cannot hold the line here it has an easy drop to the 50 day EMA (73.84) as it that lat run was fast and furious and those tend to come back rapidly if the move has run out of gas. That move lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.145M Avg Volume: 1.14M
BUY POINT: $79.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$75.35 Stop=$80.89
POSITION: CLF SP - July $80p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clf.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/06/2007
AMP (Ameriprise Financial--$63.92; +0.46; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still solid though volume was very low Monday. Holding the 10 day EMA, making a higher low and ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: AMP showed some strong volume last week as it broke higher from a 14 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA (60.88) as support for the higher and higher lows. It really jumped Monday, making a clear break higher, but then the market caught it and pulled it back Tuesday and Wednesday. Volume was lower, and it has easily and quite nicely held above the 10 day EMA (62.96) on the Wednesday low before bouncing to recoup most of the losses. Looking for it to rebound on some more solid trade and again move to a new high.
Volume: 691.8K Avg Volume: 1.116M
BUY POINT: $64.12 Volume=1.4M Target=$73.75 Stop=$62.82
POSITION: AMP IL - Sept. $60c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amp.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.01; -0.01; no options): Marketing services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Took a low volume breather Monday after a strong recovery Friday. Set up nicely to make the break, just have to be patient. To recap: GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the selling last week and gave the breakout back on Thursday. Friday it bounced right back up on lower but still above average volume (not much lower volume at that). Great breakout, nice recovery, and looking for another good upside move on continued solid trade to give us the buy point.
Volume: 179.808K Avg Volume: 195.794K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsol.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
MRO (Marathon Oil--$124.92; -0.53; optionable): Major oil and gas refiner. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Still testing the 10 day EMA (123.65), showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Just being patient and waitng for the break higher off near support to resume. To recap: Quite a surge for MRO in May after it broke higher from a 6 week flat base to start that month. It peaked on the move a week back and made a very nice, orderly test of the 10 day EMA last week. Volume was above average on the Thursday selling, but it held and is in great position to move toward its split with another good burst higher.
Volume: 3.06M Avg Volume: 4.137M
BUY POINT: $125.75 Volume=4.5M Target=$144.95 Stop=$121.89
POSITION: MRO JZ - Oct. $125c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mro.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$48.76; -0.65; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing, closing at the 10 day EMA (48.58) Monday on very low, below average volume. Nice test and looks quite ready to move back up. To recap: WNR broke higher in late May out of a 9 week base that was identical to its December to February base that produced a big winner for us. It is testing the breakout from that base, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and then posting a nice gain on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Superb action, using the market selling to test the breakout and when the market bounced, it bounced on strong volume. That shows us the big money still wants to be in this stock. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 584.408K Avg Volume: 929.343K
BUY POINT: $50.22 Volume=1.3M Target=$59.95 Stop=$46.70
POSITION: WNR IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wnr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$99.10; -0.44; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-4-07
STATUS: Double top. Another doji below the 18 day EMA (99.65) Monday on low, below average volume. Low volume double top is set to make the decline. To recap: This is a bit aggressive, but ATK has formed a 4 week double top, the second one early this month on basically no volume. That is always an indication to watch for as it tells us that the buyers are no longer bidding it up as they push it to new highs. Thursday volume jumped as ATK broke below and closed below the 18 day EMA. Friday it tried to rebound but ended up showing a doji below the 18 day. Looking for ATK to turn back from this point and give us a move down near the 50 day EMA (96.20) for a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 170K Avg Volume: 294.077K
BUY POINT: $99.11 Volume=450K Target=$96.55 Stop=$100.28
POSITION: ATK TT - Aug. $100p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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