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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BRY; FCX; WNR; CLF; QQQQ; XLU
New Leader:
Play Date: 06/12/2007
OMNI (Omni Energy Svc.--$11.34; -0.14; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omni.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. OMNI broke higher to start March, breaking clear of the handle to its 11 month base. Strong volume sent it higher, and then in the recent selling it has come back to test that move, holding at the 18 day EMA (11.17) this week on overall contained volume. Very nice pattern and very nice action in the test as OMNI rides out the market discord. Holding up very well and just going to be patient and let it finish this test and show us the bounce back up on strong volume that indicates the buyers are back in and driving it higher.
Volume: 285.495K Avg Volume: 467.934K
BUY POINT: $11.84 Volume=750K Target=$14.25 Stop=$11.11
POSITION: QOC HB - Aug. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/omni.html
New Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2007
AMR (AMR Corp.--$25.38; -0.75; optionable): American Airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. AMR is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in January and February with a double top. It slid down the 10 and 18 day EMA through May and then rebounded to the 50 day EMA, coming up for air. Just as a stock will use the 10 and 18 day EMA as support as it rallies after a breakout, it will also use the 10 and 18 day EMA as resistance after a breakdown. Volume was up Tuesday as AMR broke down toward the lows it has held the past 6 weeks. If they give way it is heading lower, and our initial target may be conservative. A move to that target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 9.096M Avg Volume: 8.121M
BUY POINT: $25.19 Volume=9M Target=$22.50 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: AMR TY - Aug. $27.50p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amr.html
Play Date: 06/12/2007
CLX (Clorox--$63.96; -0.79; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Put. CLX formed an umbrella top from late April to early June and then broke lower to the 200 day SMA (64.40). It tried to hold that key support level, but Tuesday it crashed through, crossing over to the dark side. The 200 day SMA is key as the big money either holds or folds at that level. Tuesday they were selling, though the volume was not huge (still below average). Still looks ripe to test that March low, filling a gap up at that point. A move to the target lands a 56%ish gain.
Volume: 871.8K Avg Volume: 1.178M
BUY POINT: $63.85 Volume=1.2M Target=$61.75 Stop=$64.45
POSITION: CLX SM - July $65p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Forecast this week. Still struggling, selling back this week to some support at 96.
BHI: Holding the gains nicely in the selling.
BIDU: Forecast in June.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Still struggling, now to hold the 90 day SMA.
CHAP: Forecast 2nd week of July. Holding the 50 day EMA, still unable to rebound off that level after the NUE warning.
CHE: Forecast mid-June. Getting a bit heavy but still holding support at 65.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Forecast third week of July. Not giving us any kind of entry point here as it struggles to simply hang onto the 50 day EMA.
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Researching the next date.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings. Still testing the 50 day EMA.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date.
NOV: Forecast late July. Nice test of the 18 day EMA as it walks higher in its uptrend.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
RIMM: Early June. Nothing thus far from RIMM, but it remains set up to move higher for us.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date. Heading the wrong way rapidly.
XTO: Tentatively set for early June, but may take until early August.
VIP: Researching date. Still trying to recover, hitting the 90 day SMA on the Friday low and rebounding.
VMC: Still holding the range though at the bottom of late. Just have to be patient and let it set up another buy point for us.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/12/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$148.98; -0.21; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We closed out our last positions in ICE out of an abundance of caution as it works through the handle of a 16 week base that is consolidating the strong 2006 run. Despite the market selling it is showing good upside volume and is not selling off; two important features in an overall weak market. Going to be patient and let it complete the handle and see if it shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 3.432M Avg Volume: 3.881M
BUY POINT: $151.32 Volume=5.8M Target=$173.95 Stop=$145.45
POSITION: IHH IJ - Sept. $150c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ice.html
Play Date: 06/12/2007
MA (MasterCard--$145.31; +3.71; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Holding gamely at the 18 day EMA (142) this week after an attempt to sell it off last Thursday. It rebounded the next session on even stronger volume, showing the buyers came back in. MA made us some great money on its last move and if it can hold this test and rebound on strong trade as it did Tuesday we will look to enter more positions. Nice breakout in May and this is the second test of the short term moving averages. There are typically 4 to 5 of these after a breakout, leaving MA plenty of upside if the market cooperates. Need to see that strong volume continue.
Volume: 5.082M Avg Volume: 2.872M
BUY POINT: $146.44 Volume=4.5M Target=$167.95 Stop=$140.65
POSITION: MAL JI - Oct. $145c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ma.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.06; +0.05; no options): Marketing services in China.
BACKGROUND: Last split a whopping 11:10 split on 3/4/05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
STATUS: Test breakout. GSOL bucked the trend Tuesday, rising modestly after gappign lower, recovering on rising, average volume. Very good set up as it continues to hold its move and sets up for the continued run higher and follow that strong money flow. To recap: GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the selling last week and gave the breakout back on Thursday. Friday it bounced right back up on lower but still above average volume (not much lower volume at that). Great breakout, nice recovery, and looking for another good upside move on continued solid trade to give us the buy point.
Volume: 225.855K Avg Volume: 197.649K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsol.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$49.92; +1.16; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still looking solid, posting a nice gain on strong volume Tuesday, though it faded back modestly to the close. Still looks very good to continue breakout move. To recap: Fantastic action. WNR broke higher in late May out of a 9 week base that was identical to its December to February base that produced a big winner for us. It is testing the breakout from that base, tapping the 18 day EMA (46.47) on the Friday low and then posting a nice gain on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Superb action, using the market selling to test the breakout and when the market bounced, it bounced on strong volume. That shows us the big money still wants to be in this stock. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.199M Avg Volume: 938.741K
BUY POINT: $50.22 Volume=1.3M Target=$59.95 Stop=$46.70
POSITION: WNR IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wnr.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.32; -0.38; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Still testing the 10 day EMA, fading back Tuesday modestly on a bump in volume to above average. Very nice action continues, still holding support and setting up for the next move. To recap: XTO gapped higher in early June, moving out of a nice little 7 week cup with handle base. That move made us some nice money, and it has come back to test that move, filling most of the gap as it taps at the 10 day EMA (59.74). Indeed Friday XTO tapped at that level and rebounded, and XTO did the same thing Tuesday. Excellent strength in a weak market, and this test has set up XTO in great position to make us more money this week.
Volume: 4.148M Avg Volume: 3.597M
BUY POINT: $60.82 Volume=5M Target=$69.75 Stop=$58.32
POSITION: XTO KL - Nov $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/05/2007
FISV (Fiserv--$56.49; -0.02; optionable): Transaction processing, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji right over the 18 day EMA (56.10) Tuesday as volume faded back to average. Very nice test and using the market selling to set up for another move higher. Just have to be patient and let it make its hold of support. To recap: FISV blasted out from a 12 week double bottom of sorts last Wednesday, surging on very strong volume to a new all-time high. It is making a test the past three days, coming back to test the move, showing a doji above the 10 day EMA Tuesday on lower volume. Money flow is very strong and after this test FISV is ready to resume the breakout move. Just waiting for a bounce on continued solid volume.
Volume: 1.657M Avg Volume: 1.496M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=2.1M Target=$66.75 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: FQV IK - Sept. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fisv.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
OXY (Occidental Petroleum--$56.59; -0.41; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oxy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Another stock that is using the selling to test and set up nicely for the next run in its breakout. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA (56.52) Tuesday as volume moved up but was still below average. Excellent set up to move higher, ignoring the market. To recap: OXY broke out from a 9.5 month double bottom with handle base in mid-May. It rallied and made a test of the 10 day EMA and then rallied again. It is making its second test of this near support after the breakout. A strong stock will make 4 to 5 such runs, and you have to like the rather orderly, contained pullback it is making in all of the market selling.
Volume: 4.88M Avg Volume: 5.49M
BUY POINT: $57.11 Volume=7.2M Target=$65.75 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: OXY KK - Nov. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oxy.html
CONTINUING LEADER:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
HC (Hanover Compressor--$24.83; -0.13; optionable): Equipment for oil & gas production, processing and transporation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. And yet another stock that is using the market selling to test its breakout, and doing it with style. Nice low volume as it tests and holds the 18 day EMA (24.49) following the recent breakout. It is set to move, just needs a catalyst. To recap: Excellent surge ahead of and through its earnings announcement, rallying to 26 on the high. Nice base on base pattern: it gapped out of a 9 month base to start February (earnings) and it immediately fell into the current 15 week base. Well, it was current. It broke out, tested, rallied on earnings, and is testing again. That leaves it plenty of room overhead to rebound for further run. It has held the 18 day EMA on the low, tapping it Friday and rebounding. Basically it used the market selling to test its breakout and never got into bad shape. Looks good for the week ahead.
Volume: 1.004M Avg Volume: 1.225M
BUY POINT: $25.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.31 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: HC IE - Sept. $25c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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