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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALJ; ATHR; BIDU; CBEY; CRZO; DO; FCX; FISV; GRMN; HC; MA; RIG; RIMM; SLB; WNR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/13/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$80.02; -0.23; optionable): Internet network application traffic solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Taking another look at FFIV as makes a higher low at the 10 day EMA (79.50), setting up for the break to a new 7 year high. FFIV gapped higher on earnings in late April and set up this current 7 week lateral move. Did not give up much ground in the selling, and just waiting for the break higher on a return to volume. Solid leader that held the line and is ready to move up again.
Volume: 621.328K Avg Volume: 1.222M
BUY POINT: $81.65 Volume=1.8M Target=$94.45 Stop=$79.31
POSITION: FLK JP - Oct. $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 06/13/2007
IOC (Interoil Corp.--$38.01; -1.15; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ioc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at IOC again as it has held up at the 18 day EMA (36.43) after that strong breakout and surge from late May. That made us a nice chunk of change, and as IOC held up at near support during the market selling, it looks as if it is going to rebound from here, continue the run, and make us more. Great breakout from a 6 month cup with handle, and this is the first test of that move. That leaves plenty of room upside for a continued run. Strong money flow is ready to lead IOC to a new all-time high. Volume surged Wednesday as IOC showed a tight doji at the 10 day EMA. Looks ready to move yet again.
Volume: 923.4K Avg Volume: 536.138K
BUY POINT: $38.65 Volume=800K Target=$46.95 Stop=$36.22
POSITION: IOC IG - Sept. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ioc.html
Play Date: 06/13/2007
MON (Monsanto--$62.29; +2.16; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, hybridization, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 6-28-07
STATUS: Double bottom. MON is set up to make us some money once more. It surged in mid-May after a brief test of the 50 day EMA (59.36), and then formed the current 6 week pattern. It tapped the 50 day EMA again on the low in the second leg and bounced Friday on strong volume. It rested Monday and Tuesday, and then was up on strong volume once more Wednesday. It is ready to break to a new all-time high, and as it makes its next move we are looking to get in and have MON breed some more profit for us.
Volume: 3.002M Avg Volume: 2.885M
BUY POINT: $62.48 Volume=4.3M Target=$71.95 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: MON JL - Oct. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mon.html
Play Date: 06/13/2007
NTRI (Nutrisystem--$66.21; +0.32; optionable): Weight loss systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntri.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. NTRI has made us some solid coin in the past, and after this big 7 month reverse head and shoulders that comes at the tail end of a larger 13 month consolidation. Nice really up to form the right shoulder to the base, and an orderly fade this month to the 18 day EMA (65.44) is setting up a higher low the typically precedes the breakout move. Needs to show some volume as it makes the break higher. Like how NTRI has plenty of room to the upside to make us a nice gain without having to delve too deeply into new high territory.
Volume: 724.247K Avg Volume: 1.427M
BUY POINT: $67.38 Volume=2.1M Target=$77.45 Stop=$64.96
POSITION: NSI IM - Sept. $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntri.html
Play Date: 06/13/2007
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology--$23.88; +0.23; optionable): Semiconductor circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simo.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SIMO made us some great money to start the year as it broke out in January and rallied through March. It then got rocky and fell into the current 13 week base. It has rallied back from the lows on the second leg and tested back to form the handle here in June. Volume surged Monday and Tuesday as SIMO bounced up off the 50 day EMA that formed the bottom of the handle. It looks as if it might form another modest pullback here before making the next break as 24 represents some resistance from March and early May. A break higher on strong volume is our entry point.
Volume: 340.842K Avg Volume: 918.931K
BUY POINT: $24.38 Volume=1.4M Target=$29.45 Stop=$22.75
POSITION: MQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simo.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/06/2007
AMP (Ameriprise Financial--$64.73; +1.97; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice price break higher Wednesday, but no volume as it moved. Still in solid position and if it can deliver some more trade on this move it is a buy. To recap: AMP showed some strong volume last week as it broke higher from a 14 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA (60.88) as support for the higher and higher lows. It really jumped Monday, making a clear break higher, but then the market caught it and pulled it back Tuesday and Wednesday. Volume was lower, and it has easily and quite nicely held above the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low before bouncing to recoup most of the losses. Looking for it to rebound on some more solid trade and again move to a new high.
Volume: 791.6K Avg Volume: 1.118M
BUY POINT: On a continued move from here (orig. $64.12) Volume=1.4M Target=$73.75 Stop=$62.82
POSITION: AMP IL - Sept. $60c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amp.html
Play Date: 06/11/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$40.73; +0.94; optionable): Thermal imaging and infrared camera systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Held the 50 day EMA (39.82) and bounced Wednesday, but volume is not moving up yet. Still making what looks to be a second leg to a short double bottom. Just looking for volume as it starts higher. To recap: FLIR made us some very nice green in its March through April run. A nice spring higher that peaked at 44, and after that move it needed a breather. It is currently in the sixth week of its test, coming back to the 50 day EMA and holding at that level. That is where it bottomed in mid-May and the mid-April consolidation before it surged again. That makes this a great point to hold and resume the move. Monday volume bumped higher as FLIR started of the 50 day. Looking for some more trade and a move through the 10 and 18 day EMA (40.94) on strong volume to start the play.
Volume: 365.804K Avg Volume: 622.417K
BUY POINT: $41.08 Volume=940K Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.57
POSITION: FFQ JH - Oct. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flir.html
Play Date: 06/12/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$147.78; -1.20; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ICE is still in the game for BOT, upping its hostile offer on the heels of the FTC clearing the BOT/CME deal without restrictions. Faded some Wednesday on the news but volume was low. Excellent pattern and just looking for the break higher on some strong trade. To recap: We closed out our last positions in ICE out of an abundance of caution as it works through the handle of a 16 week base that is consolidating the strong 2006 run. Despite the market selling it is showing good upside volume and is not selling off; two important features in an overall weak market. Going to be patient and let it complete the handle and see if it shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 2.376M Avg Volume: 3.874M
BUY POINT: $151.32 Volume=5.8M Target=$173.95 Stop=$145.45
POSITION: IHH IJ - Sept. $150c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
MRO (Marathon Oil--$126.09; +3.12; optionable): Major oil and gas refiner. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Solid price bounce but no volume as MRO continues its marathon run. Want to see some more trade as it continues the move and we move in. To recap: Quite a surge for MRO in May after it broke higher from a 6 week flat base to start that month. It peaked on the move a week back and made a very nice, orderly test of the 10 day EMA last week. Volume was above average on the Thursday selling, but it held and is in great position to move toward its split with another good burst higher.
Volume: 2.893M Avg Volume: 4.107M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher with some volume (orig. $125.75) Volume=4.5M Target=$144.95 Stop=$121.89
POSITION: MRO JZ - Oct. $125c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mro.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2007
AMR (AMR Corp.--$25.51; +0.13; optionable): American Airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Started lower Wednesday, hitting 24.88 on the low before rebounding to close basically flat. Volume was lower after the Tuesday average trade. Still looking for AMR to break down from this pattern. To recap: AMR is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in January and February with a double top. It slid down the 10 and 18 day EMA through May and then rebounded to the 50 day EMA, coming up for air. Just as a stock will use the 10 and 18 day EMA as support as it rallies after a breakout, it will also use the 10 and 18 day EMA as resistance after a breakdown. Volume was up Tuesday as AMR broke down toward the lows it has held the past 6 weeks. If they give way it is heading lower, and our initial target may be conservative. A move to that target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 7.386M Avg Volume: 8.166M
BUY POINT: $25.19 Volume=9M Target=$22.50 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: AMR TY - Aug. $27.50p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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