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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BHI; BRY; DO; FCX; GRMN; HC; HURN; ICE; KWK; MON; MRO; OMNI; OXY; SLB; SUN; XTO; CLF
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/14/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$64.51; +0.51; optionable): Private prisons. Splits 2:1 on 7-9-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CXW broke higher from a 7 month base on base pattern in late April, and it is starting its third bounce off the 18 day EMA as it moves toward its July split date. It is still working laterally here, setting up nicely for the next break higher. It will likely be explosive so we are going to be ready to move in quickly when it hits the buy.
Volume: 285K Avg Volume: 424.128K
BUY POINT: $64.89 Volume=425K Target=$72.95 Stop=$63.54
POSITION: CXW IM - Sept. $65c (51 delta) or CXW HL - Aug. $60c (69 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cxw.html
Play Date: 06/14/2007
FLO (Flowers Foods--$33.52; +0.43; optionable): Process packaged goods. Splits 3:2 on 7-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. After breaking out from an 8 month base in February, FLO has made a steady climb higher up the 50 day EMA. It is setting up for its third run higher following the breakout, this time holding higher than the 50 day EMA. Volume jumped higher and back above average Thursday as FLO started back up. Very nice action that looks ready to resume the pre-split run.
Volume: 406.2K Avg Volume: 312.089K
BUY POINT: $33.78 Volume=400K Target=$40.55 Stop=$32.89
POSITION: FLO JF - Oct. $30c (70 delta, low OI) or FLO HF - Aug. $30c (70 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flo.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/14/2007
CCJ (Cameco--$53.76; +1.72; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccj.html
EARNINGS: 7-27-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Taking another run at CCJ. It broke out in April from a year long base and this is the start of its third bounce off the 18 day EMA. It should have 2 to 3 more solid bounces ahead of it. The Thursday action was a solid upside move on rising though still below average volume. the start of its third bounce off the 18 day EMA. It should have 2 to 3 more solid bounces ahead of it. The Thursday action was a solid upside move on rising though still below average volume. Looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.634M Avg Volume: 2.927M
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=3M Target=$62.00 Stop=$51.65
POSITION: CCJ IJ - Sept. 50c (67 delta) or CCJ LK - Dec. $55c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ccj.html
Play Date: 06/14/2007
MUR (Murphy Oil--$59.31; +0.32; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. MUR is working through a 4 week trading range from 58 to 60. This move is consolidating a strong run that took it out of a 13 month base. It cleared the January 2006 high on the May surge. Volume exploded higher Thursday as MUR gapped higher. Looking for a break over 60 on some solid volume.
Volume: 3.146M Avg Volume: 1.377M
BUY POINT: $60.08 Volume=2.1M Target=$69.50 Stop=$57.95
POSITION: MUR JL - Oct. $60c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mur.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/14/2007
NEM (Newmont Mining--$39.85; +0.13; optionable): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nem.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Put. NEM is in a continuing downtrend. It sold down the 18 day EMA (40.15) in May and then rebounded to end May and start June. It moved up to the 50 day EMA, coming up for air after the sharper downtrend. That stalled it and the selling began anew. It is now bouncing up to test the 18 day EMA again, and we anticipate it failing there resuming the trend down below the 18 day. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 5.525M Avg Volume: 7.401M
BUY POINT: $39.68 Volume=7.4M Target=$37.65 Stop=$40.25
POSITION: NEM UH - Sept. $40p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nem.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Forecast this week. No split this week but BA is recovering.
BHI: Surging higher again
BIDU: Forecast in June. Nothing yet, but BIDU is on the rebound.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. Still struggling, now to hold the 90 day SMA.
CHE: Forecast mid-June. Surged higher Thursday but could not hold all the move.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Forecast third week of July. Starting off the 50 day EMA. May develop into a buy here.
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Researching the next date.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings. Still testing the 50 day EMA.
DVN: Forecast last week of June.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date. Great break higher Wednesday
NOV: Forecast late July. Surging higher the past two sessions
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August
RIMM: Early June. Nothing thus far from RIMM, but RIMM is moving higher once more.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July. Strong volume the past two sessions
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date. Great Wednesday recovery
XTO: Tentatively set for early June, but may take until early August. Great break higher
VIP: Researching date. Trading higher in its trading range.
VMC: Still holding the range though at the bottom of late. Just have to be patient and let it set up another buy point for us.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/14/2007
SU (Suncor Energy--$90.13; +3.13; optionable): Canadian oil sands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SU broke higher out of a big 12 month base in May and has just made the second test of the 18 day EMA (87.18) after it cleared resistance. Thursday it surged higher on rising, above average volume, resuming the breakout move. A strong stock will make 4 to 5 such advances, and thus SU has plenty of room ahead of it. Looking to move in as it clears the early June closing high.
Volume: 2.542M Avg Volume: 2.323M
BUY POINT: $90.55 Volume=3M Target=$101.88 Stop=$87.05
POSITION: SU IR - Sept. $90c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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