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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCSI; BIDU; CCJ; CX; DO; GME; MA; MRO; NTGR; RIMM; TRMB
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/16/2007
BID (Sothebys--$48.97; -0.52; optionable): Auction houses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bid.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. BID rallied nicely ahead of its earnings, putting in a 12 point run. It bounced on its earnings report after selling some into the number, but it could not take out the prior peak that took it to a new all-time high. It rolled over and fell into this 8 week base to rest and recuperate for another run. Gapped higher Thursday on strong volume, clearing the 'hump' in the middle of the 'W.' It may form a handle here over the next few sessions, but that big volume surge Thursday requires us to be ready to move in if it continues the break upside. Another stock that is sporting excellent earnings growth rates to go along with a solid pattern.
Volume: 1.217M Avg Volume: 1.432M
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=2.1M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.44
POSITION: BID JJ - Oct. $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bid.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$80.74; +4.29; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Well, CLF was making a nice descent toward the 50 day EMA (74.49) on a downside play when it gapped higher Friday on some tremendous volume, the best trade since the last run higher. It almost fully tested that 20 point gallop from late May to early June before the turn. The Friday move closed it above the 10 and 18 day EMA (80.24, 79.71). The strength of the turn sure looks like CLF has found its buyers once again. If it can continue we are going to move in and see if it can make a run toward 100 for us.
Volume: 3.392M Avg Volume: 1.319M
BUY POINT: $81.35 Volume=2.4M Target=$94.95 Stop=$78.08
POSITION: CLF JP - Oct. $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clf.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$48.39; -0.11; optionable): Private education services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. EDU has set up a nice 6 week base on the 50 day EMA (45.94), using that key support level to form the two legs to its base. It jumped higher to start last week, then tapered off to close the week, holding onto the gains with a nice, soft, low volume fade. It is setting up for a new all-time high on the breakout move. Another play with excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with a very nice technical pattern that is setting up for a new all-time high.
Volume: 145.4K Avg Volume: 310.808K
BUY POINT: $49.62 Volume=466K Target=$57.75 Stop=$47.11
POSITION: EDU JJ - Oct. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/edu.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
NCTY (The9 Limited--$44.56; +0.55; optionable): Chinese gaming
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncty.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Ascending base. NCTY is working through a 10 week base that has predominately used the 18 day EMA (43.15) as support. Part of a 19 week base on base pattern that is setting it up for a breakout to a new all-time high. It has tried to make the move but has stumbled higher, unable to put together a breakaway move. This past week it worked laterally in a narrow range on low, below average volume, and that looks to be setting up the break higher. Looking for the volume to move in this week as it finally shows a clean breakout move.
Volume: 189.407K Avg Volume: 350.295K
BUY POINT: $45.21 Volume=500K Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: NQT II - Sept. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncty.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$64.85; +0.59; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. After a long 18 month basing process UTHR broke higher in May. It rallied to 68 on that surge; impressive move. It has spent the past 4 weeks testing that run, coming back to the 18 day EMA (65), holding at that near support and the October midpoint high in the base. Basically a big 14 month double bottom with handle in the last part of the base. Excellent money flow is leading the price. The volume on the last run higher was solid and the pullback volume has been below average; buyers on the upside, not many sellers on the downside. Excellent set up for the next break higher.
Volume: 713.904K Avg Volume: 704.698K
BUY POINT: $65.48 Volume=1.1M Target=$75.45 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: FUH KM - Nov. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.50; +0.78; no options): Marketing services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the selling the second week of June and gave the breakout back, but bounced right back and continued the lateral move above the 18 day EMA (20.49), continuing to set up the next break higher in the move. Excellent action and just being patient and waiting for the break to resume.
Volume: 150.203K Avg Volume: 221.754K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsol.html
Play Date: 06/13/2007
IOC (Interoil Corp.--$37.90; -0.20; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ioc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Throwing off some dojis to tend the week, holding near support at the 10 day EMA (37.93). It has managed to hold support after the last bout of market selling knocked it back from the strong May to early June surge. Looking for the hold here to deliver some more upside with a continuation of the breakout move. To recap: Looking at IOC again as it has held up at the 18 day EMA after that strong breakout and surge from late May. That made us a nice chunk of change, and as IOC held up at near support during the market selling, it looks as if it is going to rebound from here, continue the run, and make us more. Great breakout from a 6 month cup with handle, and this is the first test of that move. That leaves plenty of room upside for a continued run. Strong money flow is ready to lead IOC to a new all-time high.
Volume: 498.3K Avg Volume: 598.669K
BUY POINT: $38.65 Volume=800K Target=$46.95 Stop=$36.22
POSITION: IOC IG - Sept. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ioc.html
Play Date: 06/13/2007
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology--$24.24; +0.28; optionable): Semiconductor circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simo.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SIMO edged higher last week on low volume after an initial break higher on solid trade. Trying to form a handle but it is edging higher versus tailing slightly lower. Nonetheless it is setting up for a break higher and we are just going to be patient and let it show us the move. Then we move. To recap: SIMO made us some great money to start the year as it broke out in January and rallied through March. It then got rocky and fell into the current 13 week base. It has rallied back from the lows on the second leg and tested back to form the handle here in June. 24 represents some resistance from March and early May. A break higher on strong volume is our entry point.
Volume: 344.277K Avg Volume: 812.888K
BUY POINT: $24.38 Volume=1.4M Target=$29.45 Stop=$22.75
POSITION: MQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2007
AMR (AMR Corp.--$25.91; -0.02; optionable): American Airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Tried to rebound to end last week, but Friday it showed a tombstone doji below the 10 day EMA (26.20), and that indicates this little bounce to near resistance has peaked out. Just looking for it to roll over and volume to pick up as it does. Moved up the buy point a bit to accommodate this last bounce up to resistance. To recap: AMR is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in January and February with a double top. It slid down the 10 and 18 day EMA through May and then rebounded to the 50 day EMA, coming up for air. Just as a stock will use the 10 and 18 day EMA as support as it rallies after a breakout, it will also use the 10 and 18 day EMA as resistance after a breakdown. Volume was up Tuesday as AMR broke down toward the lows it has held the past 6 weeks. If they give way it is heading lower, and our initial target may be conservative. A move to that target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 6.189M Avg Volume: 7.982M
BUY POINT: $25.31 Volume=9M Target=$22.55 Stop=$26.08
POSITION: AMR TY - Aug. $27.50p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amr.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BIG (Big Lots--$30.22; -0.06; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Put. Finished the week still trying to get through the 10 day EMA (30.69), making it briefly Friday before turning over and closing slightly lower. Still looking for BIG to run out of gas here and fall to close that mid-March gap. Volume was back above average Friday as it reversed and closed lower, indicating some sellers moved in and sold it pretty aggressively when it made the move over near resistance. Looks ready. To recap: Big gapped higher on its earnings but then reversed course on high volume. It tried to breakout from its 9 week base but it failed. It tried to set up above the 90 day SMA but broke below that level. There is a gap higher from March, and the inability to hold a gain on earnings indicates it is going to fill that gap down at 26ish. Our initial target is much more conservative, but if it is selling we will let it fade. A move to the target lands a 43% gain.
Volume: 2.546M Avg Volume: 2.392M
BUY POINT: $29.86 Volume=3M Target=$27.80 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: BIG SF - July $30p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/big.html
Play Date: 06/14/2007
NEM (Newmont Mining--$40.43; +0.58; optionable): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nem.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Put. NEM bounced back last week from the selling that resumed to start June as it faded down off the 50 day EMA. It held at the May low and bounced, picking up some volume on Friday as it continued the move. Looking for it to stall on this move and then roll over once more. This bounce gives it a better play if it does turn back over and continue its downtrend. We have adjusted the buy point to accommodate this bounce. To recap: NEM is in a continuing downtrend. It sold down the 18 day EMA (40.15) in May and then rebounded to end May and start June. It moved up to the 50 day EMA, coming up for air after the sharper downtrend. That stalled it and the selling began anew. It is now bouncing up to test the 18 day EMA again, and we anticipate it failing there resuming the trend down below the 18 day. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 7.342M Avg Volume: 7.348M
BUY POINT: $39.89 Volume=7.4M Target=$37.65 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: NEM UH - Sept. $40p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nem.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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