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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BIDU; DO; EDU; GME; GRMN; IOC; MA; MON; RATE; RIG; RIMM; SLB; WNR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/18/2007
FDS (Factset Research--$63.87; +0.49; optionable): Financial and economic information to investment community
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
EARNINGS: 6-19-07
STATUS: Double bottom. FDS has set up a 14 week double bottom of sorts, coming off the second leg the past two weeks, reaching the middle of the pattern Friday and Monday. It has moved back above the 50 day EMA (62.73) as it made the rebound, and we are looking for a continued break higher to give us an entry point. Earnings are out Tuesday with the Conference Call at 11:00ET. It has not announced when it will release the earnings but likely before the open. We are looking for a break higher on the news and then a test to give us the entry point.
Volume: 441.4K Avg Volume: 324.464K
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=465K Target=$74.38 Stop=$62.39
POSITION: FDS IM - Sept. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html
Play Date: 06/18/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$49.33; +0.01; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-5-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. GES surged in June ahead of its earnings, breaking out from a 14 week flat base. Nice run, making a final gap when earnings were announced. GES has moved laterally the past two weeks, consolidating that gain, and importantly, giving up no ground, not even during the market selling. Friday volume spiked up as GES held its tight lateral range. It had one of those Monday as well. We call those 'get ready' spikes because they indicate big accumulation as the stock holds steady, crouching for the jump higher. Moves can be explosive from this type of pattern, so we are looking to move in fast when GES starts its break higher. Strong stock with a good pattern and with some of the best earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 674.2K Avg Volume: 1.458M
BUY POINT: $50.04 Volume=2.2M Target=$57.75 Stop=$48.04
POSITION: GES IW - Sept. $47.50c (65 delta) or GES IJ - Sept. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ges.html
Play Date: 06/18/2007
RL (Ralph Lauren--$96.42; +1.62; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-30-07
STATUS: Ascending base. RL announced results in late May and rebounding from the 50 day EMA, returning to the April high (and the base high) at 98. It could not make the breakout on that move, however, and came back to test once more. Made a higher low the past week and then bounced Monday on some solid above average volume. Looking for continued volume to give us an entry point in the stock and then adding to positions as it clears 98.75.
Volume: 999.5K Avg Volume: 863.523K
BUY POINT: $96.94 Volume=1.3M Target=$109.35 Stop=$94.12
POSITION: RL JS - Oct. $95c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rl.html
Play Date: 06/18/2007
RYI (Ryerson Tull--$39.44; +0.02; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. RYI is forming a nice, compact 7 week base at the 50 and 90 day SMA. After a solid January to April run RYI needed to consolidate and set up once more. This base is doing that and on Friday RYI gapped up on strong volume. It faded Monday on very low trade, currently forming the handle to its pattern. This is where it shakes out the last sellers and sets up a breakout move. Looking for RYI to take us to a new all-time high on this run when it shows us the breakout.
Volume: 531.4K Avg Volume: 770.814K
BUY POINT: $40.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.45 Stop=$38.84
POSITION: RYI IH - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ryi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/18/2007
FLML (Flamel Techologies--$24.80; -1.70; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flml.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Put. Struggling under distribution this month, breaking hard below the 200 day SMA (27.69) to start the month for the first time since October. It rebounded last week to test that move then failed at the 18 day EMA (near resistance) and tanked on strong volume Monday. Money flow is weak and leading lower. Looking to move in as FLML continues its run downside. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain. That is our initial target and if it is falling hard at that point it still has more downside to 22 before it has a support level.
Volume: 597.977K Avg Volume: 518.865K
BUY POINT: $24.64 Volume=525K Target=$22.50 Stop=$25.12
POSITION: FLU TE - Aug. $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flml.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/16/2007
BID (Sothebys--$48.13; -0.84; optionable): Auction houses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bid.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Tested back a bit further on lower volume, forming the handle to its double bottom. Nice test setting up the breakout. To recap: BID rallied nicely ahead of its earnings, putting in a 12 point run. It bounced on its earnings report after selling some into the number, but it could not take out the prior peak that took it to a new all-time high. It rolled over and fell into this 8 week base to rest and recuperate for another run. Gapped higher Thursday on strong volume, clearing the 'hump' in the middle of the 'W.' It may form a handle here over the next few sessions, but that big volume surge Thursday requires us to be ready to move in if it continues the break upside. Another stock that is sporting excellent earnings growth rates to go along with a solid pattern.
Volume: 734.5K Avg Volume: 1.432M
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=2.1M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.44
POSITION: BID JJ - Oct. $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bid.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.02; -0.48; no options): Marketing services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Tried to make the move Monday but no volume still and GSOL faded back. Still in great shape to make the move. To recap: GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the selling the second week of June and gave the breakout back, but bounced right back and continued the lateral move above the 18 day EMA (20.49), continuing to set up the next break higher in the move. Excellent action and just being patient and waiting for the break to resume.
Volume: 102.498K Avg Volume: 219.326K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsol.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$64.39; -0.46; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Holding support at 64 on low, below average volume as UTHR sets up for the next break higher. Just being patient and letting it show us the move. To recap: After a long 18 month basing process UTHR broke higher in May. It rallied to 68 on that surge; impressive move. It has spent the past 4 weeks testing that run, coming back to the 18 day EMA (65), holding at that near support and the October midpoint high in the base. Basically a big 14 month double bottom with handle in the last part of the base. Excellent money flow is leading the price. The volume on the last run higher was solid and the pullback volume has been below average; buyers on the upside, not many sellers on the downside. Excellent set up for the next break higher.
Volume: 520.443K Avg Volume: 708.286K
BUY POINT: $65.48 Volume=1.1M Target=$75.45 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: FUH KM - Nov. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2007
AMR (AMR Corp.--$25.56; -0.35; optionable): American Airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Tried to move through the 10 day EMA (26.08) again Monday but rolled over. No volume yet, but looks ready to make the move lower. To recap: AMR is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in January and February with a double top. It slid down the 10 and 18 day EMA through May and then rebounded to the 50 day EMA, coming up for air. Just as a stock will use the 10 and 18 day EMA as support as it rallies after a breakout, it will also use the 10 and 18 day EMA as resistance after a breakdown. Volume was up Tuesday as AMR broke down toward the lows it has held the past 6 weeks. If they give way it is heading lower, and our initial target may be conservative. A move to that target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 5.815M Avg Volume: 8.088M
BUY POINT: $25.31 Volume=9M Target=$22.55 Stop=$26.08
POSITION: AMR TY - Aug. $27.50p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amr.html
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BIG (Big Lots--$29.91; -0.31; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 90 day SMA (30.70), looking to break down below that resistance. Money flow continues to fade and looking for BIG to do the same. To recap: Big gapped higher on its earnings but then reversed course on high volume. It tried to breakout from its 9 week base but it failed. It tried to set up above the 90 day SMA but broke below that level. There is a gap higher from March, and the inability to hold a gain on earnings indicates it is going to fill that gap down at 26ish. Our initial target is much more conservative, but if it is selling we will let it fade. A move to the target lands a 43% gain.
Volume: 1.774M Avg Volume: 2.363M
BUY POINT: $29.86 Volume=3M Target=$27.80 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: BIG SF - July $30p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/big.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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