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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; BWLD; DO; MICC; MON; RIG; RL
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/19/2007
ATLS (Atlas America--$54.78; -0.11; no options): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atls.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ATLS is moving laterally on low volume, consolidating the early June surge higher. It has made two strong breaks higher starting mid-May, and it is setting up for a third. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. The moves can be explosive from this one, so when it takes off we need to be ready to move in.
Volume: 71.823K Avg Volume: 169.411K
BUY POINT: $55.65 Volume=250K Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atls.html
Play Date: 06/19/2007
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$38.65; -0.64; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We are looking at CBG again; last time we waited for awhile and dropped it with a 'to be continued' sign on the door. Last week CBG broke higher on strong volume, moving out of its 18 week ascending triangle. This week it is fading back on lower trade, coming back toward the 10 day EMA (37.91) to test. It may come all the way back to make the test or it may move higher from the Tuesday close. Either way we will be ready to step in when it turns back up on volume.
Volume: 2.669M Avg Volume: 2.152M
BUY POINT: $39.05 Volume=3.2M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.76
POSITION: CBG IG - Sept. $35c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbg.html
Play Date: 06/19/2007
CMI (Cummins--$101.17; +4.65; optionable): Diesel engines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Test breakout. After a surge in April CMI formed a short 5 week cup with handle. It broke sharply higher to start June but then turned right back down. It worked laterally along the 10 day EMA (96.70) and then broke higher Tuesday on rising though still below average volume. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. Looking to move in as CMI continues the move.
Volume: 1.935M Avg Volume: 2.191M
BUY POINT: $101.48 Volume=2.5M Target=$116.85 Stop=$96.65
POSITION: CDM IT - Sept. $100c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 06/19/2007
SPWR (SunPower Corp.--$57.68; -0.69; optionable): Solar power components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spwr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SPWR broke out and surged higher in April with a quick 15 point move. It needed a rest, and the current 7 week base has formed using the key 50 day EMA (53.75) as support. It rallied late last week on strong trade and is now working laterally on lower volume, forming the handle where it shakes out the short term sellers and sets up the breakout move. Very nice pattern and ready to make the move to a new all-time high. Very nice pattern.
Volume: 1.028M Avg Volume: 1.524M
BUY POINT: $58.65 Volume=2.3M Target=$70.50 Stop=$56.05
POSITION: QSU IK - Sept. $55c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spwr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: No split announced last week as BA tested the prior week's low and then bounced. If it turns back up from here at 98 on some solid trade we are looking at new positions.
BHI: Excellent run higher through Monday.
BIDU: Forecast in June. Now word on a split but BIDU is soaring.
CELG: Tentatively forecast mid-June. It is mid-June but no announcement as CELG continues to struggle just over the 90 day SMA.
CHE: Forecast mid-June. Very nice lateral move over the 18 day EMA is setting up the next break higher.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. Making a higher low at the 18 day EMA. This may be the set up to that breakout.
CLB: Forecast third week of July.
CLF: Researching the date.
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Researching the next date.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings. Finally blasted off Monday.
DVN: Forecast last week of June. Rallying nicely last week, breaking to yet another new high.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date.
MA: Researching the next date. Another strong move us underway.
NOV: Forecast late July. Steadily moving higher above the 10 day EMA.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August.
RIMM: Early June. Nothing thus far from RIMM.
RL: No announcement with earnings but a nice surge Tuesday.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July
SU: Forecast third week of July.
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date. Great recovery last week off the 50 day EMA test.
XTO: Nothing in early June. Now looking at early August. Great break higher
VIP: Researching date. Testing that strong surge from last week.
VMC: Still holding the range though at the bottom of late, bouncing up to the top of the range last week. Now we see if it can make the break higher.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/19/2007
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$83.29; -0.10; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CVX has set up a neat little 5 week base over the 50 day EMA (79.74) as it consolidates a nice April breakout and run from a 13 week base. Some solid price and volume moves last week set up the pattern, and now it is moving laterally the past two sessions on lower, below average volume. May take a session or two, but it looks just about ripe for the next break higher.
Volume: 7.034M Avg Volume: 9.016M
BUY POINT: $83.78 Volume=10M Target=$99.95 Stop=$81.68
POSITION: CVX IP - Sept. $80c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvx.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/16/2007
CLB (Core Labs--$95.97; +0.96; optionable): Oil and gas service company
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-20-06 at $58.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Moving higher Tuesday but no volume yet. Looking for that to come in as it moves above the prior highs at 96. To recap: CLB has formed a 5 week double bottom using the 50 day EMA (90.36) as support. It bounced nicely to end last week, moving up to the highs in the recent 6 week range. This is acting to consolidate the break higher from a 5 month cup with handle breakout that could not put much gain after the breakout move. This last base looks to have set it up for a renewed breakout move. Volume has been low so just want to see some good trade as it makes its move.
Volume: 152.9K Avg Volume: 262.758K
BUY POINT: Over 96 on strong volume (orig. $95.12) Volume=325K Target=$109.50 Stop=$91.75
POSITION: CLB IS - Sept. $95c (54 delta, 97 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clb.html
Play Date: 06/13/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$84.03; -0.65; optionable): Internet software, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. FFIV gapped out of a 5.5 month reverse head and shoulders pattern last week, surging on strong volume, taking it to a 7 year high. It is coming back this week to test the move, tapping toward the 10 day EMA (82.05) on the low and rebounding. Very low volume on this test. Would like to see it come on back to the 10 day EMA for a full test, but if it starts back up from here on volume we will look to move in.
Volume: 511.3K Avg Volume: 1.165M
BUY POINT: From the Tuesday close: 84.75. Test 82, then 83.75 on the rebound (orig. $81.65) Volume=1.8M Target=$94.45 Stop=$79.31
POSITION: FLK JP - Oct. $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$20.72; -0.30; no options): Marketing services in China
BACKGROUND: Last split a whopping 11:10 split on 3/4/05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GSOL has faded back to the 18 day EMA (20.57) this week, moving back on low volume, still testing the strong late May move higher. Of course, we are still waiting for the break higher. To recap: GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the early June selling and gave the breakout back. Great breakout, nice recovery, and looking for another good upside move on continued solid trade to give us the buy point.
Volume: 122.706K Avg Volume: 218.776K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsol.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/14/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$65.65; +0.53; optionable): Private prisons. Splits 2:1 on 7-9-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Moving higher Tuesday just no volume yet. If it continues the move we a bit of trade we will look at some more; it is a pre-split after all, and volume is not that key though it is always preferred. To recap: CXW broke higher from a 7 month base on base pattern in late April, and it is starting its third bounce off the 18 day EMA as it moves toward its July split date. It is still working laterally here, setting up nicely for the next break higher. It will likely be explosive so we are going to be ready to move in quickly when it hits the buy.
Volume: 370K Avg Volume: 428.04K
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher with some volume (orig. $64.89) Volume=425K Target=$72.95 Stop=$63.54
POSITION: CXW IM - Sept. $65c (51 delta) or CXW HL - Aug. $60c (69 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cxw.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/31/2007
CERN (Cerner--$56.32; 0.00; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cern.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-19-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CERN has recovered up to the 10 day EMA (55.83), setting on top of that near support and in prime position to make the break higher. It is looking ready, just has yet to show us the break. To recap: Started off the 50 day EMA (55.08), showing some above average volume last Friday as it cleared the 10 and 18 day EMA. Modest volume Monday as it continued higher. Looking to move in as CERN continues the move if it can show a bit more trade. Plenty of upside room to run for us.
Volume: 510.011K Avg Volume: 784.75K
BUY POINT: $56.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$66.95 Stop=$54.05
POSITION: CQN IY - Sept. $57.50c (50 delta, 256 OI) or CQN IK - Sept. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cern.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$48.79; -0.54; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-5-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Low volume continues as GES continues the test, fading to the 10 day EMA (48.45) Tuesday. Still in the very nice set up to make the next move in the breakout. Just waiting for it to show us the move. To recap: GES made us a nice gain as it surged in June ahead of its earnings, breaking out from a 14 week flat base. Nice run, making a final gap when earnings were announced. We booked a nice gain on that move. GES has moved laterally the past two weeks, consolidating that gain, and importantly, giving up no ground, not even during the market selling. Friday volume spiked up as GES held its tight lateral range. It had one of those Monday as well. We call those 'get ready' spikes because they indicate big accumulation as the stock holds steady, crouching for the jump higher. Moves can be explosive from this type of pattern, so we are looking to move in fast when GES starts its break higher. Strong stock with a good pattern and with some of the best earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 862.7K Avg Volume: 1.335M
BUY POINT: $50.04 Volume=2.2M Target=$57.75 Stop=$48.04
POSITION: GES IW - Sept. $47.50c (65 delta) or GES IJ - Sept. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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