|
|
stock recommendation, stock market today
Begin Part 3 of 3
ULTE (Ultimate Electronics--$28.70; -0.93; no options): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulte.html
STATUS: Broke the 18 day MVA and was selling further Wednesday on a move down toward the 50 day MVA at 28. The stock can bounce at the 50 day; but on the selling may not do that to the extent of a strong recovery back into the handle. Still holding above the previous January closing low at 28.55. Will hold the buy point for breakout, but no new aggressive positions from here. Target: 39. Volume strong at 141,900 (avg. 117,000).
BUY POINT: Breakout: 32.44 on volume of 164,000 or higher. Stop: 30.17 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ulte.html
DLTR (Dollar Tree Stores--$33.00; +0.24; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from its 25-week cup with handle (that occurred last Friday), and now is forming another handle to the base in a test. Volume has dropped to low levels relative to its strength on the breakout (down Wednesday to 1.23 million; avg. 1.2 million), and basically, the pattern looks fine. It needs a few more days to form the handle, so we will look for a continuation of this pullback, and potential support at the December high (31.87). Need to note slightly higher volume and a hammer doji, which suggests a move up from here. We'd like to see a lengthier pullback, however. Relative strength high, and buying looks good. Target: 41
BUY POINT: 34.06 on volume of 1.8 million or better. Stop: 31.68 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March or May $30 calls to buy (DQO CF or DF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dltr.html
ECL (Ecolab--$42.47; +0.87; optionable): Consumer Non-durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Made a nice move Wednesday from the 10 day MVA (tapped on the low of 41.20), after a 2-day pullback in a test of the stock's cup with handle breakout (20-week cup). The stock in the test formed another quick handle since the breakout closing high of 41.93 didn't clear the base, and looks like it wants to make a sustained move here; it will need stronger volume, however. Remains a buy on the move up to 44.19. Target: 50
BUY POINT: A buy up to 44.19 on the breakout move. Stop loss for buys at 42.50: 39.53
POSITION: Stock and/or April $40 calls to buy (ECL DH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
STT (State Street--$52.81; +1.00; optionable): Regional Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Financials suffered Tuesday, and STK was right in there with the group, breaking the 50 day MVA on strong volume. That volume continued higher Wednesday as the stock reversed on a bounce from its 200 day MVA (50.64). Now that is significant. We are looking for a move out of a handle that had formed subsequent to a reverse head and shoulders pattern, and since the stock has lost that, no new positions from here.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stt.html
Trades on less than 100,000 average daily volume:
GRTS (Gart Sports--$22.26; +1.01; no options): Specialty Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grts.html
STATUS: Quite the volatile stock this month, although price/volume action has been right on for 9 days. GRTS is in a 7-month cup base and we were calling the action of the previous week (the last three days of it, that is) a handle, but GRTS failed on the breakout. It failed the test of the breakout, pulling back too far and testing back to the 50 day MVA. That is the support from which it bounced on stronger, rising volume today (59,100; avg. 56,000). The stock pulled off the high of 23.20, so look for further consolidation here. Still can break out over the January high, so that is why the buy point is above that price - above this choppy action. Target: 28
BUY POINT: Over 23.50 on above average volume. Stop: 21.95 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grts.html
IRM (Iron Mountain--$32.04; +0.04; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Monday IRM started the move up from the 18 day MVA, the move we wanted after the stock had tested that support after a breakout from a little cup with handle (earlier this month). The stock has continued to climb, but volume has continued to fall, and that is why IRM couldn't stick to its intraday high of 32.30. That price, too, is still below the January high at 32.52. Can still get the push in volume (was down to 122,200; avg. 208,272) to break it out, but if now, can test the 10 day MVA at the 31.74 level. That is what the higher move on decreasing volume suggests. Target on the breakout: 38. Good money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: Riding positions taken at the aggressive buy point of 31.75, on continued rising volume. Pullback: Aggressive: 32.15 on 209,000 volume or higher.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $30 calls to buy (IRW DF for 68 open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/irm.html
SY (Sybase--$17.71; -0.29; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html
STATUS: SY made a very nice run from its 50 day MVA (16.03), taking out the highs in its 9-month cup pattern. Strong earnings helped, but the stock has pulled back the last two days, and today dipped back below the former pattern highs, testing the 10 day MVA (17.32) and pulling up a it to close. Volume was way up at 1.2 million (average 485,000), so we will look closely at it to hold the short-term MVA's (18 day at 17.01), looking for it to hold and get back over 18 and attack the breakout high (18.72). Initial target: 22
BUY POINT: Needs to hold 17, and the aggressive can play a move over 18 with continued strong volume. Stop: 16.80.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $15 calls to buy (SY CC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sy.html
Small Stock:
BRLI (Bio-Reference Labs--$6.70; -0.04; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brli.html
STATUS: Has not performed just as we envisioned, but not dying either. After its second gap up and reversal in as many weeks (from the range of the November high), BRLI did not hold the short-term MVA's (18 day at 16.83) but tested back to the 50 day (6.41) at its low today before reversing with the market. Volume was very low at 80,400 (average 184,200), and the 50 day has been strong support for the stock. We will see if it continues to be, but only an aggressive play on a bounce. The stock broke from a cup with handle in November and has formed another cup, and the move for the last couple of days took it out of the handle.
BUY POINT: The breakout is way up at 7.95. Aggressive: Over 7 on above average volume. Stop: 6.70
BUY POINT: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brli.html
Puts:
VIA (Viacom--$39.39; +0.11; optionable): Media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/via.html
STATUS: Fell through the buy point on the initial weakness today, but made a recovery with the market, actually closing up with a loose doji. The reversal was strong, with volume sharply up at 548,900 (average 460,000), but it is still just below its recent consolidation below 40 (the 10 day MVA is at 40.34). The pattern indicates that we could get more of a bounce, but we are still looking for weakness and will eye resistance carefully (the 18 day and 50 day are at 41.30 and 42.02). Looking for the bounce to fail and continue down to the target at 32.50. The reversal today occurred at the support at 37.40 near the October highs, so we will eye that again carefully on a move down.
BUY POINT: For new or additional positions: After a failure of the move at 40-41, a drop back through 38 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: March $45 puts to buy (VIA OI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/via.html
NDC (Ndchealth--$32.13; 0.00; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ndc.html
STATUS: NDC is languishing under its 200 day MVA (32.82) after falling through that former support from a test of its down trendline last week. It tested its 200 day Tuesday, and could not reach that high today (even with the overall market strength), showing a doji as volume picked up to 256,900 (average 217,600). It hit the buy point (below 32) today, but we could see another test of the 200 day before the expected weakness and a drop. Targeting 29 (the December closing low is at 28.29).
BUY POINT: After a test upward that fails at the 200 day, a drop through today's low (31.82) on increased volume.
POSITION: March $35 puts to buy (NDC OG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ndc.html
JPM (J.P. Morgan Chase--$33.06; +1.01; optionable): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Made the strong move down this week on the put, reaching down as low as 30.40 today but reversing with the market surge back up. We were targeting 29, and probably should have pulled the trigger and sold it. Strong recovery on massive volume. We are not going to let it rally over 34 on us. Volume way up to 22.77 million (average 8.25 million).
BUY POINT: After the bounce loses momentum, perhaps at the 34-35 range, a drop back through 33 on continued strong selling volume. We will have to see how the volume holds up.
POSITION: March $40 puts to buy (JPM OH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
CONTINUED PLAYS:
MOVING AVERAGE BOUNCES:
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
STK (Storage Tech--$23.75; +0.38; optionable): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Has made a nice move, although volume never hit breakout proportion. Today it continued up out of the ascending wedge pattern, but volume dropped significantly to 487,100 (average 774,400). With the weak volume we will be on notice with existing positions for a test (low today hit near the 10 day MVA, at 22.70), but with a continued move in the market we will see if STK can sustain the momentum. Target: 28
BUY POINT: A buy up to 24.68 on this move, but we want to see the volume of 1.1 million. Stop: 22.09-22.95 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March $20 calls to buy (STK CD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stk.html
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
FITB (Fifth Third Banc--$62.76; +1.38; optionable): Regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Crashed hard back to the 50 day (61.03) but managed to rally back with the market after hitting as low as 60.37 today. A good bounce with volume that was slightly higher at 2.36 million (average 1.4 million). Not making a great run after having broken from a double bottom with handle, but the consistent holds at the 50 day are solid. A bit wild here, but we will see if it can continue upward momentum. Good money flow. Targeting 76, but that is in doubt if we cannot get a strong move over 64.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 63.86 on continued strong volume. 59.39 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $60 calls to buy (FTQ EL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fitb.html
MOGN (Mgi Pharm--$15.44; -0.33; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: We were looking for MOGN to hold the 18 day MVA (15.77) and make a move in its cup with handle (formed after a break back over the 200 day MVA, in its larger 2 year base). It managed to close over that level after testing near its 50 day (15.10) Tuesday, but instead of rambling up off of that recovery, it gapped down and showed a doji today just over the 50 day. Volume decreased to 144,800 (average 138,000), so we will see if it can hold here (in the range of a recent consolidation), but it has some work to do.
BUY POINT: Breakout is way up at 17.15. Aggressive: A bounce back over 16 on increased volume. Stop: 15
POSITION: Stock and/or April $12.50 calls to buy (QOG DV; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mogn.html
Continued Puts:
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$64.27; +0.82; optionable): Materials & Construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Like many stocks, JEC dipped back through the aggressive put buy point (62.40) but reversed with the market. However, the reversal was not on huge volume (up to 212,000; average 247,500). It closed just under some major resistance at the convergence of the 50 day and 200 day MVA's (65.06 and 65.19), and that will be a major test for this stock if we get some more market strength that supports it. We will ride the current put positions on test of the resistance, looking for it to fail and drop back toward the target at the January low at 58.41 (watching the long-term up trendline is at 59).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After a failed test of the 65 level, new or additional positions on a drop through 63.
POSITION: April $75 puts to buy (JEC PO).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock market today
|
