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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CBEY; IOC; ETR; FLML; IDU
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/20/2007
ARRS (Arris Group--$16.69; +0.35; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Looking at ARRS again as it bucks the market trend and starts the breakout from an 8 week base that made a few higher lows along the 50 day EMA. Base on base action with the current base forming just after the late April breakout from another 8 week base, that one a nice cup with handle. Solid leader breaking to a seven year high and looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 3.459M Avg Volume: 2.18M
BUY POINT: $16.83 Volume=2.2M Target=$20.31 Stop=$15.87
POSITION: AQC KC - Nov. $15c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arrs.html
Play Date: 06/20/2007
ASIA (Asiainfo Hldgs--$9.36; -0.13; optionable): Telecom software security products in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asia.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ASIA blasted higher last Thursday on strong volume, making the second break higher from its 19 week base that formed using the 90 day SMA (7.74) as support. Both breaks were on strong volume, showing the buyers are surging into the stock as it starts these moves. It is coming back to test its move to a four year high, still above the 10 day EMA (9.26) as it faded back on lower and lower volume, falling to average Wednesday. Looking for ASIA to fully test the 10 day EMA and then rebound to give us an entry point on the next run higher in this nice breakout.
Volume: 312.04K Avg Volume: 345.21K
BUY POINT: $9.45 Volume=400K Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.91
POSITION: EUJ JB - Oct. $10c (45 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asia.html
Play Date: 06/20/2007
GTRC (Guitar Center--$52.04; +0.14; optionable): Guitars and supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtrc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Cup. It has been a long time since we have played GTRC. It was a big money maker for us 2003 to 2005, but after that run it needed a long vacation. After bottoming in Q3 2006 GTRC has started its recovery, reversing its downtrend to start the year. It formed a 6 month lateral/ascending base and then blasted higher to end May. This month it made the test, coming back to the 18 day EMA where it found support. It bounced on rising, above average volume Tuesday. Looking for it to move higher on volume once more to give us a continued run on its trend reversal.
Volume: 578.714K Avg Volume: 551.424K
BUY POINT: $52.72 Volume=750K Target=$62.50 Stop=$50.78
POSITION: UGR KJ - Nov. $50c (65 delta, low OI) or UGR KK - Nov. $55c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gtrc.html
Play Date: 06/20/2007
JADE (LJ Intl.--$11.73; +0.47; optionable): Jewelry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid volume Wednesday, the first above average shot in four weeks, as JADE started off the 50 day EMA (11.02) that it used for support in the 5 week handle to its 16 week base. Excellent pattern has set up for a break to a new all-time high, and you have to like the action in a weak market. Solid money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 1.391M Avg Volume: 802.833K
BUY POINT: $12.31 Volume=1.4M Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.45
POSITION: UOD JV - Oct. $12.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jade.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 06/20/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$84.76; -1.01; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-20-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. SLB broke out in April from a 12 month base. It has made two runs following that initial breakout and is now coming back to test again to set up the next run. Wednesday it tapped at the 10 day EMA (83.01) on the low and rebounded for a relatively modest loss. Volume surged as it tested then rebounded. Given the market condition it is likely to test toward the 10 day again before surging higher once more. When it comes off of that test we will be ready to move in once again.
Volume: 11.61M Avg Volume: 8.718M
BUY POINT: $83.45 Volume=9.5M Target=$95.95 Stop=$82.68
POSITION: SLB KQ - Nov. $85c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/20/2007
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$49.49; -1.00; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-9-07
STATUS: Put. SCHN double topped with the May and early June highs at 55 and then skidded lower the first two weeks of June. It fell through the 50 day EMA (50.05) on that initial move and then rebounded the past week to test. It tried the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday high and then rolled over, falling back through the 50 day. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 420.32K Avg Volume: 577.922K
BUY POINT: $49.31 Volume=585K Target=$46.25 Stop=$50.21
POSITION: SQQ TJ - Aug. $50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/schn.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/19/2007
ATLS (Atlas America--$53.15; -0.1.63; no options): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atls.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Fell hard with the energy stocks but volume was very low, still well below average. It held above the bottom of its lateral range (52.50) and the rising 18 day EMA (52.30). Looking for it to hold this range and bounce higher and resume the breakout. To recap: ATLS is moving laterally on low volume, consolidating the early June surge higher. It has made two strong breaks higher starting mid-May, and it is setting up for a third. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. The moves can be explosive from this one, so when it takes off we need to be ready to move in.
Volume: 86.9K Avg Volume: 169.411K
BUY POINT: $55.65 Volume=250K Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atls.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
BID (Sothebys--$47.31; -1.07; optionable): Auction houses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bid.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Continuing the handle formation, fading to the 18 day EMA on continued below average volume. Still looks close to completing its shakeout and starting the breakout. To recap: BID rallied nicely ahead of its earnings, putting in a 12 point run. It bounced on its earnings report after selling some into the number, but it could not take out the prior peak that took it to a new all-time high. It rolled over and fell into this 8 week base to rest and recuperate for another run. Gapped higher Thursday on strong volume, clearing the 'hump' in the middle of the 'W.' It may form a handle here over the next few sessions, but that big volume surge Thursday requires us to be ready to move in if it continues the break upside. Another stock that is sporting excellent earnings growth rates to go along with a solid pattern.
Volume: 816.4K Avg Volume: 1.415M
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=2.1M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.44
POSITION: BID JJ - Oct. $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bid.html
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.02; +0.30; no options): Marketing services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GSOL is still kicking things up, and Wednesday it jumped higher on a strong shot of above average volume. It could not hold the move and fell back in the range, but we like the higher volume, something of a 'get ready' spike. To recap: GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the selling the second week of June and gave the breakout back, but bounced right back and continued the lateral move above the 18 day EMA (20.49), continuing to set up the next break higher in the move. Excellent action and just being patient and waiting for the break to resume.
Volume: 277.027K Avg Volume: 218.776K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsol.html
Play Date: 06/18/2007
RYI (Ryerson Tull--$38.67; -0.83; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Sold some Wednesday, but volume was low and RYI maintained its pattern, weathering the market selling nicely. Still set up to move higher and the lower volume shows us no sellers in this stock. To recap: RYI is forming a nice, compact 7 week base at the 50 and 90 day SMA. After a solid January to April run RYI needed to consolidate and set up once more. This base is doing that and on Friday RYI gapped up on strong volume. It faded Monday on very low trade, currently forming the handle to its pattern. This is where it shakes out the last sellers and sets up a breakout move. Looking for RYI to take us to a new all-time high on this run when it shows us the breakout.
Volume: 293.4K Avg Volume: 740.955K
BUY POINT: $40.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.45 Stop=$38.84
POSITION: RYI IH - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ryi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/07/2007
BIG (Big Lots--$29.32; -0.16; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Put. BIG is slipping lower but volume has remained below average. With the market tipping, it is likely to slide lower and there is still plenty of downside for this stock; that early March gap higher way down at 24 is still there. To recap: Big gapped higher on its earnings but then reversed course on high volume. It tried to breakout from its 9 week base but it failed. It tried to set up above the 90 day SMA but broke below that level. There is a gap higher from March, and the inability to hold a gain on earnings indicates it is going to fill that gap down at 26ish. Our initial target is much more conservative, but if it is selling we will let it fade. A move to the target lands a 43% gain.
Volume: 1.951M Avg Volume: 2.344M
BUY POINT: 29.21 (orig. $29.86) Volume=3M Target=$26.85 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: BIG SF - July $30p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/big.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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