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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: DO; FCX; GRMN; HURN; KWK; RIG; RIMM; SPIL; SIMO
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/21/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$40.78; +0.93; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A nice winner for us earlier in the year, VSEA has fully filled its last gap higher from late April, the exhaustion gap on that move. With the chips starting to move we are looking for VSEA to start a move off of this support and resume its role. Volume was up close to average Thursday as it bounced up off the 50 day. Want to see some strong volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.055M Avg Volume: 2.071M
BUY POINT: $41.38 Volume=3M Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.25
POSITION: USJ KH - Nov. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
NSM (National Semiconductor--$28.50; +0.61; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
EARNINGS: 9-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. NSM exploded higher two weeks ago, gapping higher in its 14 month base. It has come back to test, tapping at the 18 day EMA (27.81) and then reversing for a nice gain on rising, above average volume. Money flow is surging higher ahead of the price even as it tests the strong break higher. Looking for NSM to continue higher with the semiconductors, giving us a breakout move.
Volume: 8.897M Avg Volume: 6.602M
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=9M Target=$33.00 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NSM KE - Nov. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsm.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 06/21/2007
GME (Gamestop--$40.05; +0.44; optionable): Electronic games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. GME is testing near support once again, tapping at the 10 day EMA (38.79) on the Thursday low intraday and then bouncing smartly on rising, average volume. This is one of the periodic tests of the near support it makes as it trends higher after testing the 50 day EMA in mid-May. We are looking for a couple more of these bounces on this run. Showing excellent price/volume action (i.e. higher volume on the upside sessions, lower volume on the down sessions), showing the buyers are in control. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.152M Avg Volume: 2.313M
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.57
POSITION: GME JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
MON (Monsanto--$67.17; +1.18; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, hybrids, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 6-26-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Earnings are next week, but MON has guided higher already. Indeed that gave us that great burst higher with our current position. It is now testing, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Monday low and then reversing on rising strong volume to post a nice gain. Ready to move in as MON continues higher into earnings.
Volume: 4.441M Avg Volume: 3.122M
BUY POINT: $67.68 Volume=4.7M Target=$77.95 Stop=$64.48
POSITION: MON JM - Oct. $65c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
SUN (Sunoco--$83.76; +1.47; optionable): Oil sands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sun.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SUN showed some solid volume Thursday as it bounced off the 18 day EMA (81.73) after that Thursday tank. It made a higher high the last round, and though on lower volume, if it can continue this strong volume as it continues higher we are looking to move in to some more positions.
Volume: 3.404M Avg Volume: 3.259M
BUY POINT: $84.28 Volume=4M Target=$94.95 Stop=$81.55
POSITION: SUN KQ - Nov. $85c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sun.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: No split announced last week as BA tested the prior week's low and then bounced. If it turns back up from here at 98 on some solid trade we are looking at new positions.
BHI: Bounced right back off the 10 day EMA.
BIDU: Forecast in June. Now word on a split but BIDU is making a nice test of a big break higher.
CHE: Forecast mid-June. Very nice lateral move over the 18 day EMA is setting up the next break higher. No split announcement however.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. Fell back to the 50 day EMA but bounced. We will see.
CLB: Forecast third week of July.
CLF: Researching the date.
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Researching the next date.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
DVN: Forecast last week of June. Tested the 18 day EMA and bounced.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Nice breakout!
MA: Researching the next date. Testing that strong move.
NOV: Forecast late July. Steadily moving higher above the 10 day EMA.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August.
RIMM: No split in early June. Testing the break higher.
RL: No announcement with earnings but a nice surge Tuesday.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July
SU: Forecast third week of July.
TMO: Researching to pinpoint the date. After the nice recovery off the 50 day EMA it has dumped right back down.
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date. Testing that strong surge from last week.
VMC: Still holding the range though at the bottom of late, bouncing up to the top of the range last week. Now we see if it can make the break higher.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 06/21/2007
MA (MasterCard--$164.69; +1.23; optionable): Credit services, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Similar to GME, MA tapped the 10 day EMA (157.24) on the Thursday low and rebounded on strong, above average volume. This test completes MA's second pullback to near support after the early May blast off from a very tight flat base. Looking to move in as MA continues the bounce higher.
Volume: 5.783M Avg Volume: 3.365M
BUY POINT: $165.05 Volume=5M Target=$185.00 Stop=$159.89
POSITION: MAL JN - Oct. $170c (50 delta) or MAL HM - Aug. $165c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ma.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/09/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$21.60; +0.58; no options): Marketing services in China
BACKGROUND: Last split a whopping 11:10 split on 3/4/05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Solid volume the past two sessions as GSOL probed the break higher. Looking positive. To recap: GSOL broke out of a 5.5 month in late May, moving on some very nice volume. It got caught in the early June selling and gave the breakout back. Great breakout, nice recovery, and looking for another good upside move on continued solid trade to give us the buy point.
Volume: 188.687K Avg Volume: 219.171K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=300K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsol.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/19/2007
ATLS (Atlas America--$54.33; +1.18; no options): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atls.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Surging volume Thursday as trade topped average for the first time in two weeks. The trade bounced it off the 18 day EMA. Looking to make the breakout. To recap: ATLS is moving laterally on low volume, consolidating the early June surge higher. It has made two strong breaks higher starting mid-May, and it is setting up for a third. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. The moves can be explosive from this one, so when it takes off we need to be ready to move in.
Volume: 222.741K Avg Volume: 167.947K
BUY POINT: $55.65 Volume=250K Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atls.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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