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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; DO; MA; RIG; SLB; SPWR; WNR; XLU
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 06/23/2007
CIEN (Ciena--$35.71; -0.74; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Thursday CIEN started the breakout from the handle of its big, nicely formed 14 month cup with handle. Volume surged in late May on the earnings announcement and gapped CIEN higher. It spent this month testing that move, working laterally over the 10 day EMA (34.74) on mostly lower, below average volume. That changed Thursday as CIEN broke higher from the handle on strong trade. Friday it faded back on lower trade, easily holding above the 10 day EMA. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and this pullback looks as if it is going to give us an entry into this breakout move. Nice pattern as this tech boom winner comes back to life.
Volume: 6.252M Avg Volume: 3.658M
BUY POINT: $36.08 Volume=6M Target=$43.45 Stop=$34.57
POSITION: EUG JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cien.html
Play Date: 06/23/2007
MTL (Mechel Steel Group--$38.36; +0.04; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtl.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Test breakout. MTL broke sharply higher mid-month, surging out of a 10 week ascending base (calling it that because it doesn't look like much of a 'pattern' of any sort). Strong, strong volume on the break higher from the last part of the base, a 5 week double bottom at the 90 day SMA. It spent the past week testing that move on lower volume, then showing strong volume Thursday as it tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded positive. Looking for it to continue the bounce higher from here given the strong volume on the test. Solid stock both in technical pattern and the earnings growth which are some of the tops in the market.
Volume: 457K Avg Volume: 367.655K
BUY POINT: $38.76 Volume=500K Target=$46.50 Stop=$36.77
POSITION: MTL JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta, 310 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtl.html
Play Date: 06/23/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$28.84; -0.61; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Double bottom. VCLK is trying to form the second leg to a short double bottom at the 90 day SMA (28.54). VCLK is a market leader that enjoyed a great run into May when it spiked higher on strong volume. That run emptied the gas tank and it had to test. It has held the 90 day SMA just as it did in May, and we really like the set up for a break higher and run toward that prior high at 36. Very low volume on this pullback, showing no real dumping. Looking for the volume to kick up as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 1.629M Avg Volume: 3.103M
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: QCS IF - Sept. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vclk.html
New buy point on current position: Ready to pick up some more positions in leaders that are ready to move.
Play Date: 06/23/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$155.52; -3.03; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: Announce 5-2-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. ICE faded Friday to the 10 day EMA (154.40) on lower, below average volume, testing the solid breakout just over a week back. This low volume test is giving us a new entry point on this stock that can fly like the wind (couldn't really say it can flow like ice). Looking for the bounce on stronger volume.
Volume: 2.809M Avg Volume: 3.517M
BUY POINT: $158.75 Volume=4.5M Target=$178.95 Stop=$154.32
POSITION: IHH IK - Sept. $155c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ice.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BHI: Bounced right back off the 10 day EMA.
BIDU: Forecast in June. BIDU continues to drive higher sans split announcement. No complaints about that.
CHE: Forecast mid-June. Struggling in the lateral move, managing to hold some support at 65.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. Working laterally in the range above the 50 day EMA.
CLB: Forecast third week of July.
CLF: Researching the date.
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Researching the next date as it tries to hang on at the 18 day EMA.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
DVN: Forecast last week of June. Still testing the 18 day EMA.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Coming to life last week.
MA: Researching the next date. Breaking higher yet again.
NOV: Forecast late July. Steadily moving higher above the 10 day EMA.
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August. Testing the 18 day EMA on lower volume. A hold here and break higher on higher trade is a buy.
RIMM: No split in early June. Trying to bounce off the 18 day EMA.
RL: No announcement with earnings. Nice test back to end the week.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July
SU: Forecast third week of July.
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date. Testing that strong surge from last week.
VMC: Still holding the range though at the bottom of late, bouncing up to the top of the range last week. Now we see if it can make the break higher.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 06/23/2007
GOOG (Google--$524.98; +10.87; optionable): Internet search, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
EARNINGS: 7-19-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Okay, okay, GOOG has made a point of not splitting its stock, trying its hand at the Berkshire Hathaway approach. Nonetheless, the company that went Dutch auction so the little guy could get in on the IPO yet does not want to split its stock is in good position to rally. It broke higher in May and then came back to test that move this month, holding at the 18 day EMA and bouncing. Volume finally kicked in again Friday; that may be rebalancing volume, but whatever you want to call it the 7 month cup with handle pattern is solid and GOOG looks to be trying the breakout with that strong Friday move. We are looking to move in as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 7.288M Avg Volume: 4.985M
BUY POINT: $526.65 Volume=7.5M Target=$574.00 Stop=$519.45
POSITION: GOP IW - Sept. $530c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/goog.html
Play Date: 05/30/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$104.65; -1.24; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. VIP surged in mid-June out of a 12 week lateral consolidation. We were watching it, but when it faded to the 90 day SMA we dropped it. VIP then surged higher to 112. Okay. It is now testing, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and recovering to hold the 10 day EMA. Nice low, below average volume test showing a tight doji with tail Friday. It is ready to continue the run higher and we are going to stay on this one and pick it up as it makes the move.
Volume: 356.4K Avg Volume: 883.52K
BUY POINT: $106.04 Volume=1.2M Target=$121.95 Stop=$103.33
POSITION: VIQ JA - Oct. $105c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/19/2007
ATLS (Atlas America--$53.84; -0.49; no options): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atls.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume exploded Friday, but again, that was due to the rebalance. Nonetheless, ATLS remains in excellent position to hold the prior gain and continue the breakout move. Looking for a continued move higher and on strong volume to enter. To recap: ATLS is moving laterally on low volume, consolidating the early June surge higher. It has made two strong breaks higher starting mid-May, and it is setting up for a third. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. The moves can be explosive from this one, so when it takes off we need to be ready to move in.
Volume: 525.477K Avg Volume: 171.851K
BUY POINT: $55.65 Volume=250K Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atls.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
GME (Gamestop--$40.06; +0.01; optionable): Electronic games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Nice tight doji that tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close flat. This is part of an ongoing test of the strong surge higher the prior week. The doji indicates it is at the bottom of the pullback, so we look for a rebound this week on some rising trade. To recap: GME is testing near support once again, tapping at the 10 day EMA (39.02) last Thursday low then bouncing smartly on rising, average volume. This is one of the periodic tests of the near support it makes as it trends higher after testing the 50 day EMA in mid-May. We are looking for a couple more of these bounces on this run. Showing excellent price/volume action (i.e. higher volume on the upside sessions, lower volume on the down sessions), showing the buyers are in control. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.899M Avg Volume: 2.275M
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.57
POSITION: GME JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
MON (Monsanto--$67.55; +0.38; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, hybrids, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 6-26-07
STATUS: Test breakout. MON moved higher Friday on more solid, above average volume, moving toward the next run higher in its nice rally. Looking for it to give us the entry point this week. To recap: Earnings are next week, but MON has guided higher already. Indeed that gave us that great burst higher with our current position. It is now testing, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Monday low and then reversing on rising strong volume to post a nice gain. Ready to move in as MON continues higher into earnings.
Volume: 4.594M Avg Volume: 3.136M
BUY POINT: $67.68 Volume=4.7M Target=$77.95 Stop=$64.48
POSITION: MON JM - Oct. $65c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
NSM (National Semiconductor--$27.87; -0.63; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
EARNINGS: 9-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Still testing, closing at the 18 day EMA (27.82) Friday on lower volume. NSM is well poised to move higher when volume kicks back i. To recap: NSM exploded higher two weeks ago, gapping higher in its 14 month base. It has come back to test, tapping at the 18 day EMA and then reversing for a nice gain on rising, above average volume. Money flow is surging higher ahead of the price even as it tests the strong break higher. Looking for NSM to continue higher with the semiconductors, giving us a breakout move.
Volume: 7.471M Avg Volume: 6.632M
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=9M Target=$33.00 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NSM KE - Nov. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsm.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$41.32; +0.54; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. VSEA moved up Friday on tremendous volume, but we know what we can do with that. The more important feature is the excellent pullback to test the 50 day EMA that has set up a run higher. If this move from Friday continues we are ready to move in. To recap: A nice winner for us earlier in the year, VSEA has fully filled its last gap higher from late April, the exhaustion gap on that move. With the chips starting to move we are looking for VSEA to start a move off of this support and resume its role. Volume was up close to average Thursday as it bounced up off the 50 day. Want to see some strong volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 12.924M Avg Volume: 2.26M
BUY POINT: $41.38 Volume=3M Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.25
POSITION: USJ KH - Nov. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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